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91Ó°ÊÓ

For a comparison of the rates of defectives produced by two assembly lines, independent random samples of 100 items were selected from each line. Line A yielded 18 defectives in the sample, and line B yielded 12 defectives. a. Find a \(98 \%\) confidence interval for the true difference in proportions of defectives for the two lines. b. Is there evidence here to suggest that one line produces a higher proportion of defectives than the other?

Short Answer

Expert verified
98% confidence interval is [-0.0572, 0.1772]; no significant difference in defectives.

Step by step solution

01

Define the sample proportions

For Line A, the sample size is 100 and the number of defectives is 18, so the sample proportion \( \hat{p}_A = \frac{18}{100} = 0.18 \). For Line B, the sample size is 100 and the number of defectives is 12, so the sample proportion \( \hat{p}_B = \frac{12}{100} = 0.12 \).
02

Calculate the standard error

The formula for the standard error of the difference in sample proportions is \(SE = \sqrt{ \frac{\hat{p}_A(1-\hat{p}_A)}{n_A} + \frac{\hat{p}_B(1-\hat{p}_B)}{n_B} }\), where \( n_A = 100 \) and \( n_B = 100 \). Thus, \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.18(1-0.18)}{100} + \frac{0.12(1-0.12)}{100}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.1476}{100} + \frac{0.1056}{100}} = \sqrt{0.001476 + 0.001056} = \sqrt{0.002532} \approx 0.0503 \).
03

Find the critical value

For a 98% confidence interval, we look for a critical value \( z \) corresponding to \( \frac{100-98}{2} = 1% \) in each tail of the standard normal distribution. The critical value is \( z \approx 2.33 \).
04

Calculate the confidence interval

The formula for the confidence interval is \((\hat{p}_A - \hat{p}_B) \pm z \times SE\). Thus, the confidence interval is \( (0.18 - 0.12) \pm 2.33 \times 0.0503 = 0.06 \pm 0.1172 \). Therefore, the interval is \(-0.0572 \text{ to } 0.1772\).
05

Interpret the confidence interval

The interval \(-0.0572 \text{ to } 0.1772\) includes zero, indicating that there is no statistically significant difference in the proportion of defectives between the two lines at the 98% confidence level.
06

Conclusion on hypothesis test

Since the confidence interval for the difference in proportions includes zero, we do not have evidence to suggest that one line produces a higher proportion of defectives than the other.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
A sample proportion represents the fraction of items in a sample that exhibit a particular characteristic, which in this case is being defective. When calculating sample proportions, it's essential to consider the size of the sample and the number of observed occurrences of the characteristic. In the context of the assembly line exercise, for Line A, there were 18 defective items out of a sample of 100. This gives us the sample proportion for Line A, denoted as \( \hat{p}_A = \frac{18}{100} = 0.18 \). Similarly, for Line B, the sample proportion \( \hat{p}_B \) is calculated as \( \frac{12}{100} = 0.12 \).
  • Sample size for Line A: 100
  • Number of defectives for Line A: 18
  • Sample size for Line B: 100
  • Number of defectives for Line B: 12
By understanding these individual sample proportions, we can begin to compare the proportion of defectives between the two lines.
Standard Error
The standard error is crucial when determining the reliability of a sample statistic by quantifying the extent to which the sample results are expected to vary. In this exercise, we calculate the standard error of the difference in sample proportions between two assembly lines. The formula used is:\[ SE = \sqrt{ \frac{\hat{p}_A(1-\hat{p}_A)}{n_A} + \frac{\hat{p}_B(1-\hat{p}_B)}{n_B} } \]Where:
  • \( \hat{p}_A \) and \( \hat{p}_B \) are the sample proportions for Line A and Line B, respectively.
  • \( n_A \) and \( n_B \) are the sample sizes, each equal to 100 in this case.
The calculated standard error \( SE \) is approximately \( 0.0503 \). This value tells us about the typical deviation between their respective sample proportions, aiding in the formation of a confidence interval.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a method of statistical inference used to decide if the evidence in a sample supports a particular hypothesis about a population parameter. In the exercise, the focus is on determining whether there is a significant difference in the proportions of defective items between the two lines. For this, the null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) assumes no difference in proportion, meaning \( \hat{p}_A - \hat{p}_B = 0 \). The alternative hypothesis (\( H_1 \)) suggests there is a difference. The confidence interval approach in this scenario helps to visually test the hypothesis without explicitly calculating a test statistic. Since the confidence interval \(-0.0572 \text{ to } 0.1772\) includes zero, it implies no significant evidence to reject the null hypothesis, concluding there is no significant difference in the defect proportions.
Critical Value
To calculate the confidence interval, we need the critical value, which comes from the standard normal distribution table or a z-score table. It reflects how many standard deviations our sample statistic is away from the hypothesized population parameter under the null hypothesis.In this exercise, a 98% confidence level means that there's a 1% risk in each tail of the distribution. This leads us to a critical value of approximately \( z = 2.33 \).
  • The critical value helps determine the margin of error for the confidence interval.
  • Multiplied with the standard error, it extends around the sample mean to create the confidence interval.
By harnessing this critical value, we determine how confident we are that the true difference in proportions falls within the calculated interval.

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