/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 41 A quality control plan calls for... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

91Ó°ÊÓ

A quality control plan calls for randomly selecting three items from the daily production (assumed large) of a certain machine and observing the number of defectives. However, the proportion \(p\) of defectives produced by the machine varies from day to day and is assumed to have a uniform distribution on the interval (0,1) . For a randomly chosen day, find the unconditional probability that exactly two defectives are observed in the sample.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The unconditional probability of observing exactly two defectives is \( \frac{1}{4} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the probability of observing exactly two defective items out of three when defectiveness follows a uniform distribution on (0,1). This means for any given day, the probability of item being defective is uniformly distributed across the interval.
02

Setting up the Probability Expression

Since we are selecting 3 items, and want exactly 2 to be defective, the probability for any given day with defect probability \(p\) can be expressed using the binomial distribution: \[ P(X=2|p) = \binom{3}{2} p^2 (1-p) \].
03

Integrating Over the Uniform Distribution

The defect probability \(p\) is assumed to be uniformly distributed over [0,1]. To find the unconditional probability, we integrate the expression from Step 2 over all possible \(p\): \[ P(X=2) = \int_{0}^{1} \binom{3}{2} p^2 (1-p) \, dp \].
04

Solving the Integral

Calculate the integral: \[ P(X=2) = 3 \int_{0}^{1} p^2 (1-p) \, dp \]. This simplifies to \[ 3 \left[ \frac{p^3}{3} - \frac{p^4}{4} \right]_{0}^{1} = 3 \left(\frac{1}{3} - \frac{1}{4} \right) = 3 \left(\frac{4}{12} - \frac{3}{12} \right) = 3 \times \frac{1}{12} = \frac{1}{4} \].
05

Final Probability

Using the integral result, the unconditional probability that exactly two defectives are observed on a randomly chosen day is \( \frac{1}{4} \).

Unlock Step-by-Step Solutions & Ace Your Exams!

  • Full Textbook Solutions

    Get detailed explanations and key concepts

  • Unlimited Al creation

    Al flashcards, explanations, exams and more...

  • Ads-free access

    To over 500 millions flashcards

  • Money-back guarantee

    We refund you if you fail your exam.

Over 30 million students worldwide already upgrade their learning with 91Ó°ÊÓ!

Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
The Binomial Distribution is a fundamental concept in probability theory that helps us model the number of successful outcomes in a fixed number of independent trials. Each trial is assumed to have two possible outcomes: success and failure. The probability of success is constant in each trial.
When solving problems using the binomial distribution, we need to determine the likelihood of observing a specific number of successes over a given number of trials. Here, that means finding the probability of observing 2 defective items out of 3. In this scenario, the binomial coefficient found in the probability expression \( \binom{3}{2} \) calculates the number of ways we can choose 2 defective items from 3. This coefficient multiplies with \( p^2 (1-p) \), where \( p \) is the probability of a defective item, and \( 1-p \) is the probability of a non-defective item. Therefore, \( P(X=2|p) = \binom{3}{2} p^2 (1-p) \) is the key formula here.
The logical beauty of the binomial distribution lies in its simple construct, catering to situations where outcomes can be divided into just two categories across multiple trials of equal probability.
Uniform Distribution
The Uniform Distribution is another important concept in probability. It describes a situation where all outcomes in a given interval are equally likely. For a uniform distribution over the interval (0,1), every probability \( p \) between 0 and 1 is equally likely.
In the exercise, the proportion of defectives, \( p \), varies daily and is uniformly distributed across (0, 1). This means that the chance of the proportion being any specific value in this range is the same as any other. Hence, we model this situation using a uniform probability distribution.
This distribution is incredibly helpful in real-world situations where we do not have additional information favoring specific outcomes over others within the range. For continuous distributions like this, probabilities are typically explored through integration, which we discuss next.
Integration in Probability
Integration in Probability allows us to handle situations where probabilities are distributed across a range of values, specifically in continuous cases like our uniform distribution. When we want the total probability of an event, like observing exactly 2 defects across all possible probabilities \( p \), integration allows us to sum these possibilities over the interval.
Here, we need to find the unconditional probability of observing exactly two defectives, which involves integrating the binomial probability expression over all possible values of \( p \) from 0 to 1. This takes into account every conceivable value \( p \) could take under the uniform distribution.
The integration process involved solving \[ P(X=2) = \int_{0}^{1} \binom{3}{2} p^2 (1-p) \, dp \], which simplifies to calculating and evaluating specific limits. The ultimate result \( \frac{1}{4} \) teaches us how effective integration is in understanding the full scope of continuous probability distributions.

One App. One Place for Learning.

All the tools & learning materials you need for study success - in one app.

Get started for free

Most popular questions from this chapter

Of nine executives in a business firm, four are married, three have never married, and two are divorced. Three of the executives are to be selected for promotion. Let \(Y_{1}\) denote the number of married executives and \(Y_{2}\) denote the number of never-married executives among the three selected for promotion. Assuming that the three are randomly selected from the nine available, find the joint probability function of \(Y_{1}\) and \(Y_{2}\).

Suppose that \(Y_{1}\) and \(Y_{2}\) are independent binomial distributed random variables based on samples of sizes \(n_{1}\) and \(n_{2},\) respectively. Suppose that \(p_{1}=p_{2}=p .\) That is, the probability of "success" is the same for the two random variables. Let \(W=Y_{1}+Y_{2} .\) In Chapter 6 you will prove that \(W\) has a binomial distribution with success probability \(p\) and sample size \(n_{1}+n_{2}\). Use this result to show that the conditional distribution of \(Y_{1}\), given that \(W=w\), is a hypergeometric distribution with \(N=n_{1}+n_{2},\) and \(n=w,\) and \(r=n_{1}\)

The total sustained load on the concrete footing of a planned building is the sum of the dead load plus the occupancy load. Suppose that the dead load \(X_{1}\) has a gamma distribution with \(\alpha_{1}=50\) and \(\beta_{1}=2,\) whereas the occupancy load \(X_{2}\) has a gamma distribution with \(\alpha_{2}=20\) and \(\beta_{2}=2\) (Units are in kips.) Assume that \(X_{1}\) and \(X_{2}\) are independent. a. Find the mean and variance of the total sustained load on the footing. b. Find a value for the sustained load that will be exceeded with probability less than \(1 / 16\)

In Exercise 5.9 we determined that $$f\left(y_{1}, y_{2}\right)=\left\\{\begin{array}{ll} 6\left(1-y_{2}\right), & 0 \leq y_{1} \leq y_{2} \leq 1 \\ 0, & \text { elsewhere } \end{array}\right.$$ is a valid joint probability density function. Find $$\text { a. } E\left(Y_{1}\right) \text { and } E\left(Y_{2}\right)$$ $$\text { b. } V\left(Y_{1}\right) \text { and } V\left(Y_{2}\right)$$ $$\text { c. } E\left(Y_{1}-3 Y_{2}\right)$$

How big or small can \(\operatorname{Cov}\left(Y_{1}, Y_{2}\right)\) be? Use the fact that \(\rho^{2} \leq 1\) to show that $$-\sqrt{V\left(Y_{1}\right) \times V\left(Y_{2}\right)} \leq \operatorname{Cov}\left(Y_{1}, Y_{2}\right) \leq \sqrt{V\left(Y_{1}\right) \times V\left(Y_{2}\right)}$$

See all solutions

Recommended explanations on Math Textbooks

View all explanations

What do you think about this solution?

We value your feedback to improve our textbook solutions.

Study anywhere. Anytime. Across all devices.