/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 67 Suppose that \(30 \%\) of the ap... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Suppose that \(30 \%\) of the applicants for a certain industrial job possess advanced training in computer programming. Applicants are interviewed sequentially and are selected at random from the pool. Find the probability that the first applicant with advanced training in programming is found on the fifth interview.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately 0.072.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Probability of Success

The probability that any given applicant possesses advanced training in programming is given as \(0.30\) or 30\%. Let this event be considered a success.
02

Define the Probability of Failure

The probability that an applicant does not possess advanced training is \(1 - 0.30 = 0.70\). Let this be the probability of failure.
03

Understand the Distribution Type

This scenario follows a geometric distribution, where we're interested in finding the probability of the first success on the fifth trial. In a geometric distribution, the probability of the first success on the \( n \)-th trial is found using the formula: \[ P(X = n) = (1-p)^{n-1}p \], where \( p \) is the probability of success.
04

Apply the Geometric Distribution Formula

Using the formula from the previous step, find the probability of the first success on the fifth trial:\[ P(X = 5) = (0.70)^4 \times 0.30 \].Calculate \( (0.70)^4 \) first.
05

Calculate the Probability

Compute \((0.70)^4\), which is approximately \(0.2401\). Now multiply it by \(0.30\):\[ 0.2401 \times 0.30 = 0.07203 \].So, the probability that the first applicant with advanced training is found on the fifth interview is approximately \(0.072\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability of Success
In any probabilistic scenario, particularly in geometric distributions, defining what constitutes a 'success' is crucial. In our exercise, success is when an industrial job applicant possesses advanced training in computer programming. This is given as a specific probability, often expressed as a percentage. In this case, the probability of success is 30%, or 0.30 in decimal form. Understanding the probability of success is key because it forms the backbone of calculating outcomes in scenarios like sequential interviews. By defining success clearly, one can apply mathematical models to predict when success might occur in a series of attempts.
Probability of Failure
Probability of failure is the counterpart to the probability of success and is calculated by subtracting the probability of success from 1. In our example, an applicant lacking advanced programming training is termed as a failure. Given that the probability of success is 0.30, the probability of failure thus becomes 0.70 (which is 1 - 0.30). This metric is crucial in calculations where successes and failures alternate, such as each interview attempt in the industrial hiring process being a potential failure until the desired applicant is found. Therefore, understanding this probability is foundational in calculating the likelihood of different outcome scenarios.
Sequential Sampling
Sequential sampling is a method where units (like job applicants) are sampled one at a time from a population. In our context, interviews are conducted one after another, and each applicant is considered randomly and independently. This approach fits perfectly with the geometric distribution model, where each trial or attempt is independent, and the probability remains constant. Sequential sampling is highly practical in real-life scenarios like recruiting, where decisions are made dynamically, based on each preceding outcome (e.g., finding a suitable applicant during interviews). Understanding this can help in applying the right statistical models to predict outcomes of various sequences effectively.
Industrial Job Applicants
In industrial settings, job applicants are often evaluated based on specific skill sets, such as advanced programming in our example. The probability model applied here reflects real-world recruitment processes, where a company desires to hire employees efficiently. Using a statistical approach like geometric distribution, one can predict which interview will likely yield an applicant with the desired skill set. This helps streamline hiring processes and minimize costs. Recognizing these patterns can empower businesses to make informed decisions while searching for candidates and adjust their strategies to better meet recruitment goals.

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