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Patients arriving at a hospital outpatient clinic can select one of three stations for service. Suppose that physicians are assigned randomly to the stations and that the patients therefore have no station preference. Three patients arrive at the clinic and their selection of stations is observed. a. List the sample points for the experiment. b. Let \(A\) be the event that each station receives a patient. List the sample points in \(A\). c. Make a reasonable assignment of probabilities to the sample points and find \(P(A)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
There are 27 sample points; 6 in event A. Probability of event A, \(P(A) = \frac{2}{9}\).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Setup

We have 3 patients, and they can each choose one of 3 stations for service. Since the patients choose stations randomly, each patient has 3 options.
02

List Sample Points

Each patient can choose one of three stations, creating a sequence. The sample space consists of all possible combinations of these sequences for three patients. The sample points can be denoted as combinations like (1,1,1), (1,1,2), ..., (3,3,3), where the numbers represent the station chosen by each patient. Since each of the 3 patients can independently choose any of the 3 stations, there are a total of \(3^3 = 27\) possible outcomes.
03

Event A - Each Station Receives a Patient

Event \(A\) occurs when each station (1, 2, and 3) receives at least one patient. We consider the permutations of the sequence (1,2,3) as each patient choosing a different station. The permutations that satisfy this condition are (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), (3,1,2), and (3,2,1). Thus, there are 6 favorable outcomes.
04

Assign Probabilities to Sample Points

Assume each sequence is equally likely since the assignments are random. Therefore, the probability for each sample point is \(\frac{1}{27}\).
05

Calculate Probability of Event A

Using the equal assignment of probability \(\frac{1}{27}\) for each sample point and knowing there are 6 favorable outcomes for event \(A\), we find \(P(A) = 6 \times \frac{1}{27} = \frac{6}{27} = \frac{2}{9}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability theory, the concept of a "sample space" serves as the foundational backbone for any probabilistic experiment. A sample space is essentially a set that encompasses all the possible outcomes that can occur in a specific experiment. For example, when considering the situation where three patients are choosing from three service stations at a hospital clinic, the sample space includes every conceivable combination of station selections these patients might make.
The notation typically employed represents these combinations in ordered sequences. Here, each patient's choice of station can be represented by the numbers 1, 2, and 3, corresponding to each station. This gives rise to possible sequences such as (1,1,1), (2,2,2), and so forth. In this exercise, since there are 3 patients and each can select from 3 stations, the total number of combinations possible is denoted by the formula \[ 3^3 = 27 \]This formula results from the choices available to each patient, multiplied across the three individuals.
Comprehending sample spaces is crucial because they lay the groundwork for defining events, calculating probabilities, and discerning the structure of complex experiments in probability theory.
Event Probability
Event probability, in the context of this exercise, is the measure of how likely a specific event is to occur within the sample space. When you have a clearly defined sample space composed of equal-probability outcomes, the probability of any event becomes the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes.
In our hospital clinic scenario, let event \(A\) be defined as each station receiving at least one patient. A key observation here is understanding which outcomes make event \(A\) possible. Suppose one outcome is (1,2,3), meaning each patient chooses a different station. Every arrangement of such a sequence constitutes a favorable outcome for \(A\). Since permutations like (1,2,3), (1,3,2), (2,1,3), (2,3,1), and so on, satisfy our condition, we enumerate six such permutations.
Assigning equal likelihood to each sequence means each sample point has a probability of:\[\frac{1}{27}\]Thus, the probability of event \(A\) happening can be found by summing the probabilities of all favorable outcomes:\[P(A) = 6 \times \frac{1}{27} = \frac{2}{9}\]Grasping event probability helps in predicting outcomes, modeling real-world uncertainties, and making informed decisions based on probable scenarios.
Permutations
Permutations are concerned with the arrangement of a set of items where order matters. This concept is central to understanding various problems in probability and combinatorics, especially when dealing with distinct outcomes where sequence plays a role.
In our specific exercise, permutations help us determine the different ways patients can line up at the stations such that each station receives exactly one patient. For a given set like \(\{1,2,3\}\), a permutation examines every possible order in which the elements can appear. The formula for permutations of a set with \(n\) distinct elements is:\[ n! \]For the set \(\{1,2,3\}\), this results in:\[ 3! = 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 6 \]This explains why there are 6 different ways the patients can choose the stations non-repeatedly in this specific example.
Understanding permutations is invaluable when determining arrangements and allocations in probability, where the placement and order of selections significantly influence the outcome being analyzed.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The following game was played on a popular television show. The host showed a contestant three large curtains. Behind one of the curtains was a nice prize (maybe a new car) and behind the other two curtains were worthless prizes (duds). The contestant was asked to choose one curtain. If the curtains are identified by their prizes, they could be labeled \(G, D_{1},\) and \(D_{2}\) (Good Prize, Dud1, and Dud2). Thus, the sample space for the contestants choice is \(S=\left\\{G, D_{1}, D_{2}\right\\}\). a. If the contestant has no idea which curtains hide the various prizes and selects a curtain at random, assign reasonable probabilities to the simple events and calculate the probability that the contestant selects the curtain hiding the nice prize. b. Before showing the contestant what was behind the curtain initially chosen, the game show host would open one of the curtains and show the contestant one of the duds (he could always do this because he knew the curtain hiding the good prize). He then offered the contestant the option of changing from the curtain initially selected to the other remaining unopened curtain. Which strategy maximizes the contestant's probability of winning the good prize: stay with the initial choice or switch to the other curtain? In answering the following sequence of questions, you will discover that, perhaps surprisingly, this question can be answered by considering only the sample space above and using the probabilities that you assigned to answer part (a). i. If the contestant choses to stay with her initial choice, she wins the good prize if and only if she initially chose curtain \(G\). If she stays with her initial choice, what is the probability that she wins the good prize? ii. If the host shows her one of the duds and she switches to the other unopened curtain, what will be the result if she had initially selected \(G\) ? iii. Answer the question in part.(ii) if she had initially selected one of the duds. iv. If the contestant switches from her initial choice (as the result of being shown one of the duds), what is the probability that the contestant wins the good prize? v. Which strategy maximizes the contestant's probability of winning the good prize: stay with the initial choice or switch to the other curtain?

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