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91Ó°ÊÓ

Of the items produced daily by a factory, \(40 \%\) come from line 1 and \(60 \%\) from line II. Line I has a defect rate of \(8 \%,\) whereas line II has a defect rate of \(10 \% .\) If an item is chosen at random from the day's production, find the probability that it will not be defective.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is 0.908 (90.8%).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the probability that a randomly chosen item from the factory is not defective. This involves understanding and using the probabilities of production and defect from two different lines.
02

Calculate Probability of Good Item from Line I

First, calculate the probability that an item produced in Line I is not defective. Since Line I has a defect rate of 8%, the probability of a good item from Line I is \(1 - 0.08 = 0.92\). Then multiply this by the probability that an item comes from Line I, which is 40%. Hence, the probability of a good item from Line I is \(0.92 \times 0.40 = 0.368\).
03

Calculate Probability of Good Item from Line II

Next, calculate the probability that an item produced in Line II is not defective. Line II has a defect rate of 10%, so the probability of a good item from Line II is \(1 - 0.10 = 0.90\). Multiply this by the probability that an item comes from Line II, which is 60%. Thus, the probability of a good item from Line II is \(0.90 \times 0.60 = 0.54\).
04

Total Probability of Non-Defective Item

Add the probabilities from the two lines to find the total probability that a randomly chosen item is not defective: \(0.368 + 0.54 = 0.908\).
05

Conclusion

The probability that a randomly chosen item from the day's production is not defective is 0.908, or 90.8%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Defect rate
In quality control and production processes, the defect rate is a critical measure. It represents the proportion of items or batches that do not meet the quality standards and are therefore considered defective. Understanding the defect rate helps organizations to identify issues and improve their processes.

For example, in our exercise, Line I has a defect rate of 8% and Line II has a defect rate of 10%. This means that out of 100 items produced, 8 items from Line I are likely defective, whereas 10 items from Line II might be defective. These rates are usually determined through testing a sample of items from each line and calculating the percentage that does not meet the quality criteria.

Reducing the defect rate is essential for maintaining high standards and efficiency. It involves steps like improving machinery, refining work processes, and training workers. The lower the defect rate, the better the product quality and customer satisfaction. By closely monitoring and working to reduce the defect rate, manufacturers can enhance both productivity and profitability.
Production line analysis
Production line analysis is the examination of each stage in the manufacturing process to ensure efficiency and quality. It involves looking at the rate and quality of output from different lines within the factory.

In the context of our exercise, the analysis involves assessing both Line I and Line II, where 40% of the production comes from Line I and 60% from Line II. Such analysis helps in understanding how each line contributes to the overall production and quality — Line I produces fewer items but with slightly better quality compared to Line II.

By carefully analyzing each production line, managers can identify bottlenecks, inefficiencies, and areas for improvement. Factors considered during analysis include:
  • The production capacity of each line
  • The defect rates and their impact on overall quality
  • The allocation of resources such as labor and materials
Understanding these aspects allows for data-driven decisions that can enhance production capabilities and product quality.
Non-defective probability
The probability of an item being non-defective is crucial in determining overall product quality. In probability terms, it refers to the likelihood that an item produced is without defects.

Calculating the non-defective probability involves finding the chances that an item from a production line is not faulty. In our exercise, this was computed by taking into account the defect rates provided. For Line I, 92% of the products are non-defective, calculated as the complementary probability by subtracting the defect rate from 100%. Similarly, for Line II, 90% of the products are non-defective.

These probabilities are then weighted by the proportion each line contributes to the total production. Thus, the overall non-defective probability is determined by:
  • Multiplying the non-defective probability of each line by its production share
  • Summing these weighted probabilities to get the total non-defective probability
For example, in our problem, the non-defective probability of getting a good item from Line I is calculated as 0.92 times 0.40, while it is 0.90 times 0.60 from Line II. Adding these gives a total probability of 0.908, or 90.8%, that a randomly selected item will be non-defective.

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