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Show that if the conditional probabilities exist, then $$\begin{array}{l} P\left(A_{1} \cap A_{2} \cap \cdots \cap A_{n}\right) \\ \quad=P\left(A_{1}\right) P\left(A_{2} | A_{1}\right) P\left(A_{3} | A_{1} \cap A_{2}\right) \cdots P\left(A_{n} | A_{1} \cap A_{2} \cap \cdots \cap A_{n-1}\right) \end{array}$$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of intersecting events is the product of the first event's probability with each subsequent event's conditional probability.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Definition of Conditional Probability

Conditional probability of an event \( A \) given \( B \) is defined as \( P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \) provided \( P(B) > 0 \). This will be the foundational concept for deriving the required expression.
02

Apply Conditional Probability Sequentially

Start with calculating the probability of the intersection of the first two events, using conditional probability: \( P(A_1 \cap A_2) = P(A_1)P(A_2|A_1) \). This expresses the probability of both \( A_1 \) and \( A_2 \) happening as the product of \( P(A_1) \) and the probability of \( A_2 \) given \( A_1 \).
03

Extend to Three Events

To find \( P(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap A_3) \), incorporate \( A_3 \) by considering: \( P(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap A_3) = P(A_1 \cap A_2)P(A_3|A_1 \cap A_2) \). Substitute the expression from Step 2 to get \( P(A_1)P(A_2|A_1)P(A_3|A_1 \cap A_2) \).
04

Generalize to n Events

Build upon this process recursively for \( n \) events. By continuing to apply the principle of conditional probability, you find: \[ P(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap \cdots \cap A_n) = P(A_1)P(A_2|A_1)P(A_3|A_1 \cap A_2) \cdots P(A_n|A_1 \cap A_2 \cap \cdots \cap A_{n-1}) \] Each term in the product represents the probability of an event given all preceding events in the sequence.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Joint Probability
Joint probability refers to the likelihood of two events happening at the same time. It is a fundamental concept in probability theory as it allows us to analyze situations where two or more events occur simultaneously. If you have two events, say \( A_1 \) and \( A_2 \), their joint probability is denoted by \( P(A_1 \cap A_2) \). This represents the probability of both events occurring together.
Joint probabilities can be extended to multiple events. In such cases, you look at the probability of several events happening at once, like \( P(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap \cdots \cap A_n) \).
The joint probability is pivotal when dealing with intersecting events in probability theory because it captures the interplay between different events happening concurrently.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the mathematical framework for quantifying uncertainty. At its core, it helps us understand the likelihood of different events happening based on a set of conditions or information.
Several key concepts reside within probability theory:
  • Random Experiment: An experiment with uncertain results that can be observed multiple times.
  • Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
  • Event: A collection of outcomes from the sample space.
  • Probability Measure: A function assigning a likelihood to each event, adhering to the axioms of probability.
Understanding these concepts is crucial when exploring more complex topics like conditional probability and joint events. Conditional probability, for example, is a way to update the probability of an event based on additional information, further connecting this field with joint probabilities.
Mathematical Proof
Mathematical proof is a logical argument demonstrating the truth of a mathematical statement. It is an essential part of mathematics, providing certainty and understanding of why a particular fact is true.
In probability, proofs often rely on definitions, axioms, and previously established theorems. The goal is to present a sequence of statements, each derived logically from the preceding ones, leading to the conclusion. For instance, proving relationships in conditional probabilities involves rigorously applying the definition \( P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \).
Such proofs provide a foundation for concepts in probability and help ensure that methods used for calculating probabilities are both rigorous and reliable. They are invaluable in helping students not only arrive at the correct answer but also understand the underlying reasons and mechanisms behind the formula used.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

This problem introduces a simple meteorological model, more complicated versions of which have been proposed in the meteorological literature. Consider a sequence of days and let \(R_{i}\) denote the event that it rains on day \(i .\) Suppose that \(P\left(R_{i} | R_{i-1}\right)=\alpha\) and \(P\left(R_{i}^{c} | R_{i-1}^{c}\right)=\beta .\) Suppose further that only today's weather is relevant to predicting tomorrow's; that is, \(P\left(R_{i} | R_{i-1} \cap R_{i-2} \cap \cdots \cap\right.\) \(\left.R_{0}\right)=P\left(R_{i} | R_{i-1}\right)\) a. If the probability of rain today is \(p,\) what is the probability of rain tomorrow? b. What is the probability of rain the day after tomorrow? c. What is the probability of rain \(n\) days from now? What happens as \(n\) approaches infinity?

A standard deck of 52 cards is shuffled thoroughly, and \(n\) cards are turned up. What is the probability that a face card turns up? For what value of \(n\) is this probability about. \(.5 ?\)

A woman getting dressed up for a night out is asked by her significant other to wear a red dress, high-heeled sneakers, and a wig. In how many orders can she put on these objects?

A box has three coins. One has two heads, one has two tails, and the other is a fair coin with one head and one tail. A coin is chosen at random, is flipped, and comes up heads. a. What is the probability that the coin chosen is the two-headed coin? b. What is the probability that if it is thrown another time it will come up heads? c. Answer part (a) again, supposing that the coin is thrown a second time and comes up heads again.

Show that if \(A, B,\) and \(C\) are mutually independent, then \(A \cap B\) and \(C\) are independent and \(A \cup B\) and \(C\) are independent.

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