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Question: In the accompanying table, we list the public debt Dof the United States (in billions of dollars), in variousyears t(as of September 30).

a.Letting t=0 in 1975, fit a linear function of the form log(D)=c0+c1tto the data points(ti,logDi) using least squares. Use the result to fit an exponential function to the data points ti,Di.

b.What debt does your formula in part (a) predict for 2015?

Short Answer

Expert verified
  1. logD=2.803+0.0395t,Dt=635.33100.0395t
  2. D40=24,154.57

Step by step solution

01

Consider for part (a).

Observe the function

ft=c0+c1t

Whereft=logD

Assume that t=0in 1975.

Then,f0=log533,f10=log1823,f20=log4974,f30=log7933

Then, we have a linear system that needs to solve.

ft1=logD1ft2=logD2ft3=logD3ft4=logD4orc0=log533c0+10c1=log1823c0+20c1=log4974c0+30c1=log7933

Ac1c0=bwhere,

A=10110120130,b=log533log1823log4974log7933

Now, we are going to find the least solution using the formulas below.

c0=ti2ibiitiitiibinti2itii2=140013.58460223.52414006022.8032c1=ntiibibiitiinti2itii2=4223.5213.58460414006020.0395logD=2.8032+0.0395t

Convert the logarithm function to an exponent equation we get

logD=2.8032+0.0395tD=102.8032+0.0395tDt=635.33100.0395t

02

Consider for part (b).

When (t=40) the debt that the formula from part (a) will predict is

D40=635.33100.039540=24,154.57

Hence,

The solution of part (a) is logD=2.803+0.0395t,Dt=635.33100.0395t

The solution of part (b) is D40=24,154.57.

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