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A certain scientific theory supposes that mistakes in cell division occur according to a Poisson process with rate \(2.5\) per year, and that an individual dies when 196 such mistakes have occurred. Assuming this theory, find (a) the mean lifetime of an individual, (b) the variance of the lifetime of an individual. Also approximate (c) the probability that an individual dies before age \(67.2\), (d) the probability that an individual reaches age 90 , (e) the probability that an individual reaches age 100 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
The mean lifetime of an individual is 78.4 years, and the variance is 196 years². The probability of dying before age 67.2 is approximately 0.4136, the probability of reaching age 90 is approximately 0.9049, and the probability of reaching age 100 is approximately 0.9823.

Step by step solution

01

Find the Mean Lifetime of an Individual

To find the mean lifetime, we need to see when the individual reaches exactly 196 mistakes on average. The mean of the Poisson process is equal to the rate multiplied by the time. Let \(X\) be the number of mistakes the individual has made by time \(t\). Then the individual dies when: \(X = 196\) The mean of a Poisson process is: \(\lambda = \text{rate} \times \text{time}\) Here the rate is 2.5 mistakes per year, so we have: 196 = 2.5 * t Solve for t: t = 196 / 2.5 t = 78.4 So an individual has a mean lifetime of 78.4 years.
02

Find the Variance of Lifetime of an Individual

The variance of the Poisson process is equal to the rate multiplied by the time. So, var = \(\lambda\) which equals rate * time. Variance = rate * t Variance = 2.5 * 78.4 Variance = 196 The variance of the lifetime of an individual is 196 years².
03

Find the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of Poisson Distribution

To find the probabilities of dying by certain ages, we need to find the CDF of the Poisson distribution at certain times. The CDF is given by the following formula: \(F(k; \lambda) = P(X \le k) = \sum_{i=0}^k \frac{e^{-\lambda} (\lambda)^i}{i!}\) where \(k\) is the number of mistakes in the Poisson distribution and \(\lambda\) is the rate multiplied by the time.
04

Find the Probability of Dying Before 67.2

We want to find the probability that an individual dies before age 67.2. We will use the CDF formula: \(F(k; 2.5 * 67.2) = P(X \le 195)\) As the sum is quite large, we will use a calculator or software to compute this probability: \(F(195; 2.5 * 67.2) \approx 0.4136\) So the probability of dying before 67.2 years is approximately 0.4136.
05

Find the Probability of Reaching Age 90

We want to find the probability that an individual reaches age 90. We will use the CDF formula: \(1 - F(k; 2.5 * 90) = P(X > 195)\) \(1 - F(195; 2.5 * 90) \approx 0.9049\) So the probability of reaching age 90 is approximately 0.9049.
06

Find the Probability of Reaching Age 100

We want to find the probability that an individual reaches age 100. We will use the CDF formula: \(1 - F(k; 2.5 * 100) = P(X > 195)\) \(1 - F(195; 2.5 * 100) \approx 0.9823\) So the probability of reaching age 100 is approximately 0.9823.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean Lifetime Calculation
Understanding how to calculate the mean lifetime of an individual in the context of a Poisson process is crucial for any student of statistics or probability. In the given problem, we're asked to assume that mistakes in cell division occur at a steady rate and lead to the death of an individual at a certain threshold.

To find the mean lifetime, which is the average time until the individual reaches 196 mistakes, we multiply the rate of mistakes by the time. With a rate of 2.5 mistakes per year, the equation becomes \(196 = 2.5 \times t\). Solving for \(t\) gives us 78.4 years, which is the mean lifetime according to this model. It's important to note that mean lifetime is an average; individuals may die sooner or live longer, but on average, the lifetime is 78.4 years.
Variance of Lifetime
The variance is a statistical measure that tells us how much the lifetime of individuals can differ from the mean. In a Poisson process, the variance is equal to its mean, which here is the number of events (mistakes) in that period. Since we've already established a rate of 2.5 mistakes per year and a mean lifetime of 78.4 years, the variance is \(2.5 \times 78.4 = 196\) years squared.

This number may seem large, but remember, variance is not expressed in the same units as the data itself. To understand the typical deviation from the mean, one would take the square root of the variance, which in statistics is known as the standard deviation.
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) is a fundamental concept in the study of probability distributions, including the Poisson distribution. The CDF gives the probability that a Poisson-distributed random variable \(X\) is less than or equal to a certain value \(k\). Mathematically, it's the sum of probabilities for all events up to \(k\):

\( F(k; \lambda) = P(X \le k) = \sum_{i=0}^k \frac{e^{-\lambda}(\lambda)^i}{i!} \)

For practical calculations, especially when dealing with a large sum like in our case, using a calculator or statistical software can greatly simplify the process.
Probability Approximations
When dealing with large datasets or complex distributions, exact probabilities can be cumbersome to calculate. Approximations provide a more manageable approach. In our scenario, we use the CDF of the Poisson process to approximate probabilities of an individual dying before reaching certain ages.

To approximate the probability of dying before age 67.2 years, we calculate the CDF for 195 events, yielding approximately 0.4136. Similarly, the probabilities of reaching ages 90 and 100 can be estimated using 1 minus the CDF for the events leading up to these ages. These approximations allow for a much quicker assessment of the probabilities without requiring exhaustive calculations.
Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is an essential tool for modeling the probability of a given number of events happening in a fixed interval of time or space, assuming these events occur with a known constant mean rate and independently of the time since the last event. The provided problem is a textbook example, where the occurrences of mistakes in cell division follow a Poisson process.

Understanding the properties of the Poisson distribution such as its mean, variance, and how to use its CDF is crucial for analyzing and interpreting data that fits this type of stochastic process. It's especially useful in various fields, ranging from biology and medicine to telecommunications and traffic engineering.

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