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There are three jobs and a single worker who works first on job 1 , then on job 2 , and finally on job 3. The amounts of time that he spends on each job are independent exponential random variables with mean 1. Let \(C_{i}\) be the time at which job \(i\) is completed, \(i=1,2,3\), and let \(X=\sum_{i=1}^{3} C_{i}\) be the sum of these completion times. Find (a) \(E[X]\), (b) \(\operatorname{Var}(X)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
In conclusion, for the sum of the completion times of the three jobs, we have (a) an expected value \(E[X] = 3\) and (b) a variance \(Var(X) = 3\).

Step by step solution

01

Finding the Expected Values for T1, T2, and T3

For an exponential distribution with mean 1, the expected value is the same as the mean. Thus, we have: $$ E[T_1] = E[T_2] = E[T_3] = 1 $$
02

Using Linearity of Expectation to Find E[X]

The linearity of expectation states that the expected value of a sum of random variables is equal to the sum of their individual expected values. Thus: $$ E[X] = E[T_1 + T_2 + T_3] = E[T_1] + E[T_2] + E[T_3] = 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 $$
03

Finding the Variances for T1, T2, and T3

For an exponential distribution with mean 1, the variance is equal to the square of the mean. Thus, we have: $$ Var(T_1) = Var(T_2) = Var(T_3) = 1^2 = 1 $$
04

Using Variance Property for Independent Random Variables to Find Var(X)

The sum of the variances of independent random variables is equal to the variance of their sum. Thus: $$ Var(X) = Var(T_1 + T_2 + T_3) = Var(T_1) + Var(T_2) + Var(T_3) = 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 $$ In conclusion, (a) the expected value of the sum of completion times is \(E[X] = 3\), and (b) the variance of the sum of completion times is \(Var(X) = 3\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Expected Value
Understanding the expected value is crucial when working with random variables, such as time to complete tasks. In the given exercise, the worker's times to complete three jobs are modeled as independent exponential random variables with mean 1, noted as \(T_{1}\), \(T_{2}\), and \(T_{3}\). The expected value, often denoted as \(E[X]\), is a fundamental concept in probability that represents the average outcome if an experiment is repeated a large number of times.

The calculation for the expected value of \(X\), which is the sum of times for the three jobs (\(C_{i}\)), is straightforward due to the identical distribution of the jobs' completion times. Since each job has a mean (and thus an expected value) of 1, the expected value for the total time \(X\) can be expressed as:
\[E[T_1] = E[T_2] = E[T_3] = 1\]
Summing these gives \(E[X] = 3\). This result underscores that the average time for the worker to finish all three jobs is three times the average time taken to complete one job.
Linearity of Expectation
The linearity of expectation is a powerful property that greatly simplifies the work with expected values, especially when dealing with sums of random variables. It states that the expected value of the sum of random variables is the sum of their expected values, irrespective of whether the random variables are independent or not.

In the context of the exercise, linearity of expectation allows us to find the expected value of \(X\), the total completion time for the three jobs, by simply adding up the expected values of each individual job's completion time. Using the property, we get:
\[E[X] = E[T_1 + T_2 + T_3] = E[T_1] + E[T_2] + E[T_3]\]
Since we know from the previous section that \(E[T_1] = E[T_2] = E[T_3] = 1\), we can conclude that \(E[X] = 3\). This is a neat example of how the linearity of expectation can make calculations more manageable and is a fundamental tool in analyzing the behavior of random variables.
Variance of Random Variables
Variance measures the spread or dispersion of a set of values. For random variables, it quantifies how much the values of the variable deviate from the expected value. In the exercise scenario, we're asked to find the variance of the sum of completion times. The variance of an exponential distribution with mean 1 is equal to the square of the mean. Therefore, for each job's time which we denote as \(T_i\), we have:
\[Var(T_i) = 1^2 = 1\]
The property that comes into play for calculating the variance of \(X\), \(Var(X)\), is specific to independent random variables: the variance of the sum is the sum of their variances. Thus, we can find \(Var(X)\) by summing the variances of \(T_1\), \(T_2\), and \(T_3\):
\[Var(X) = Var(T_1 + T_2 + T_3) = Var(T_1) + Var(T_2) + Var(T_3) = 1 + 1 + 1 = 3\]
This demonstrates that the total variability in the sum of the workers' completion times is three times the variability of a single job's time. The variance is a vital concept in understanding the reliability and consistency of processes, like how predictably a worker finishes tasks.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A two-dimensional Poisson process is a process of randomly occurring events in the plane such that (i) for any region of area \(A\) the number of events in that region has a Poisson distribution with mean \(\lambda A\) and (ii) the number of events in nonoverlapping regions are independent. For such a process, consider an arbitrary point in the plane and let \(X\) denote its distance from its nearest event (where distance is measured in the usual Euclidean manner). Show that (a) \(P\\{X>t\\}=e^{-\lambda \pi t^{2}}\) (b) \(E[X]=\frac{1}{2 \sqrt{\lambda}}\)

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A certain scientific theory supposes that mistakes in cell division occur according to a Poisson process with rate \(2.5\) per year, and that an individual dies when 196 such mistakes have occurred. Assuming this theory, find (a) the mean lifetime of an individual, (b) the variance of the lifetime of an individual. Also approximate (c) the probability that an individual dies before age \(67.2\). (d) the probability that an individual reaches age 90 . (e) the probability that an individual reaches age 100 .

Let \(X, Y_{1, \ldots .}, Y_{n}\) be independent exponential rardom variables; \(X\) having rate \(\lambda_{1}\) and \(Y_{i}\) having rate \(\mu\). Let \(A_{j}\) be the event that the \(j\) th smallest of these \(n+1\) random variables is one of the \(Y_{i}\). Find \(p=P\left\\{X>\max _{i} Y_{i}\right\\}\), by using the identity $$ p=P\left(A_{1} \cdots A_{n}\right)=P\left(A_{1}\right) P\left(A_{2} \mid A_{1}\right) \cdots P\left(A_{n} \mid A_{l} \cdots A_{n-1}\right) $$ Verify your answer when \(n=2\) by conditioning on \(X\) to obtain \(p\).

Prove that (a) \(\max \left(X_{1}, X_{2}\right)=X_{1}+X_{2}-\min \left(X_{1}, X_{2}\right)\) and, in general, $$ \text { (b) } \begin{aligned} \max \left(X_{1}, \ldots, X_{n}\right)=& \sum_{1}^{n} X_{i}-\sum_{i

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