Chapter 3: Problem 9
Show in the discrete case that if \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, then $$ E[X \mid Y=y]=E[X] \quad \text { for all } y $$
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Chapter 3: Problem 9
Show in the discrete case that if \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent, then $$ E[X \mid Y=y]=E[X] \quad \text { for all } y $$
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In Section 3.6.3, we saw that if \(U\) is a random variable that is uniform on \((0,1)\) and if, conditional on \(U=p, X\) is binomial with parameters \(n\) and \(p\), then $$ P[X=t\\}=\frac{1}{n+1}, \quad i=0,1, \ldots, n $$ For another way of showing this result, let \(U, X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots, X_{n}\) be independent uniform \((0,1)\) random variables. Define \(X\) by $$ \boldsymbol{X}=\boldsymbol{h i}: \boldsymbol{X}_{i}<\boldsymbol{U} $$ That is, if the \(n+1\) variables are ordered from smallest to largest, then \(U\) would be in position \(X+1\). (a) What is \(P[X=i] ?\) (b) Explain how this proves the result stated in the preceding.
Suppose in Exercise 25 that the shooting ends when the target has been hit twice. Let \(m_{i}\) denote the mean number of shots needed for the first hit when player \(i\) shoots first, \(i=1,2 .\) Also, let \(P_{1}, i=1,2\), denote the probability that the first hit is by player 1 when player \(i\) shoots first. (a) Find \(m_{1}\) and \(m_{2}\). (b) Find \(P_{1}\) and \(P_{2}\). For the remainder of the problem, assume that player 1 shoots first. (c) Find the probability that the final hit was by 1 . (d) Find the probability that both hits were by 1 . (e) Find the probability that both hits were by \(2 .\) (f) Find the mean number of shots taken.
The number of claims received at an insurance company during a week is a random variable with mean \(\mu_{1}\) and variance \(\sigma_{1}^{2}.\) The amount paid in each claim is a random variable with mean \(\mu_{2}\) and variance \(\sigma_{2}^{2}\). Find the mean and variance of the amount of money paid by the insurance company each week. What independence assumptions are you making? Are these assumptions reasonable?
A coin, having probability \(p\) of landing heads, is continually flipped until at least one head and one tail has been flipped. (a) Find the expected number of flips needed. (b) Find the expected number of flips that lands on heads. (c) Find the expected number of flips that land on tails. (d) Repeat part (a) in the case where flipping is continued until there has been a total of at least two heads and one tail.
Two players alternate flipping a coin that comes up heads with probability \(p\). The first one to obtain ahead is declared the winner. We are interested in the probability that the first player to flip is the winner. Before determining this probability, which we will call \(f(p)\), answer the following questions. (a) Do you think that \(f(p)\) is a monotone function of \(p ?\) If so, is it increasing or decteasing? (b) What do you think is the value of \(\lim _{p \rightarrow 1} f(p) ?\) (c) What do you think is the value of \(\lim _{p \rightarrow 0} f(p)\) ? (d) Find \(f(p)\).
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