Chapter 3: Problem 19
Prove that if \(X\) and \(Y\) are jointly continuous, then $$ E[X]=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} E[X \mid Y=y] f_{Y}(y) d y $$
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Chapter 3: Problem 19
Prove that if \(X\) and \(Y\) are jointly continuous, then $$ E[X]=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} E[X \mid Y=y] f_{Y}(y) d y $$
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The number of red balls in an urn that contains \(n\) balls is a random variable that is equally likely to be any of the values \(0,1, \ldots, n\). That is, $$ P\\{i \text { red, } n-i \text { non-red }\\}=\frac{1}{n+1}, \quad i=0, \ldots, n $$ The \(n\) balls are then randomly removed one at a time. Let \(Y_{k}\) denote the number of red balls in the first \(k\) selections, \(k=1, \ldots, n\) (a) Find \(P\left\\{Y_{n}=j\right\\}, j=0, \ldots, n\). (b) Find \(P\left\\{Y_{n-1}=j\right\\}, j=0, \ldots, n\) (c) What do you think is the value of \(P\left\\{Y_{k}=j\right\\}, j=0, \ldots, n ?\) (d) Verify your answer to part (c) by a backwards induction argument. That is, check that your answer is correct when \(k=n\), and then show that whenever it is true for \(k\) it is also true for \(k-1, k=1, \ldots, n\).
Use the conditional variance formula to find the variance of a geometric random variable.
An urn contains three white, six red, and five black balls. Six of these balls are randomly selected from the urn. Let \(X\) and \(Y\) denote respectively the number of white and black balls selected. Compute the conditional probability mass function of \(X\) given that \(Y=3\). Also compute \(E[X \mid Y=1]\).
A prisoner is trapped in a cell containing three doors. The first door leads to a tunnel that returns him to his cell after two days of travel. The second leads to a tunnel that returns him to his cell after three days of travel. The third door leads immediately to freedom. (a) Assuming that the prisoner will always select doors 1,2, and 3 with probabilities \(0.5,0.3,0.2\), what is the expected number of days until he reaches freedom? (b) Assuming that the prisoner is always equally likely to choose among those doors that he has not used, what is the expected number of days until he reaches freedom? (In this version, for instance, if the prisoner initially tries door 1 , then when he returns to the cell, he will now select only from doors 2 and 3.) (c) For parts (a) and (b) find the variance of the number of days until the prisoner reaches freedom.
\(A, B\), and \(C\) are evenly matched tennis players. Initially \(A\) and \(B\) play a set, and the winner then plays \(C\). This continues, with the winner always playing the waiting player, until one of the players has won two sets in a row. That player is then declared the overall winner. Find the probability that \(A\) is the overall winner.
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