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In major league baseball, a no-hitter is a game in which a pitcher, or pitchers, doesn't give up any hits throughout the game. No-hitters occur at a rate of about three per season. Assume that the duration of time between no-hitters is exponential.

a. What is the probability that an entire season elapses with a single no-hitter?

b. If an entire season elapses without any no-hitters, what is the probability that there are no no-hitters in the following season?

c. What is the probability that there are more than 3 no-hitters in a single season?

Short Answer

Expert verified

a). The probability that an entire season elapses with a single no-hitter is 0.0498.

b). The value of P(T>2∣T>1)is 0.0498.

c). The value of P(x>3)is 0.3528.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given Information 

X~Exp(3)

Where.

m=3

μ=13

=0.3333

02

Part (a) Step 2: Explanation

The required probability can be calculated as below:

P(x>1)=1-P(x<1)

=1-1-e-3-1

=e-3

=0.0498

03

Part (b) Step 1: Given Information 

X~Exp(3)

Where.

m=3

μ=13

=0.3333

04

Part (b) Step 2: Explanation 

The required probability can be written as P(T>2∣T>1). Now, use the memory less property of exponential distribution. That is,

P(x>t+r∣x>t)=P(x>r)

So,

P(T>2∣T>1)=P(T>1+1∣T>1)

=P(T>1)

=0.0498

Therefore, the value of P(T>2∣T>1)is 0.0498.

05

Part (c) Step 1: Given Information 

X~Exp(3)

Where.

m=3

μ=13

=0.3333

06

Part (c) Step 2: Explanation (Part c)

Let X=the number of no-hitters is a season. Assume that Xis Poisson with mean λ=3. Then,

localid="1650470480426" P(X>3)=1-P(X≤3)=0.3528.

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