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RBls (Example 11) A random sample of 25 baseball players from the 2017 Major League Baseball season was taken and the sample data was used to construct two confidence intervals for the population mean. One interval was \((22.0,42.8)\). The other interval was \((19.9,44.0)\). (Source: mlb.com) a. One interval is a \(95 \%\) interval, and one is a \(90 \%\) interval. Which is which, and how do you know? b. If a larger sample size was used, for example, 40 instead of 25 , how would this affect the width of the intervals? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 90% confidence interval is \((22.0,42.8)\) and the 95% confidence interval is \((19.9,44.0)\). If the sample size is increased from 25 to 40, the widths of the confidence intervals would decrease, meaning they would become narrower, which increases the precision of the population mean estimate.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the 90% and 95% Confidence Interval

Generally, a wider confidence interval corresponds to a higher level of confidence. By comparing the widths of the two given intervals, one can identify which represents the 90% and which the 95% confidence interval. The width of the interval \((22.0,42.8)\) is \(42.8 - 22.0 = 20.8\), and the width of the interval \((19.9,44.0)\) is \(44.0 - 19.9 = 24.1\). Since \(24.1 > 20.8\), we know that the interval \((19.9,44.0)\) is the 95% confidence interval, while the interval \((22.0,42.8)\) is the 90% confidence interval.
02

Evaluate the Effect of Increasing the Sample Size

The length of a confidence interval is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. So, by increasing the sample size, for example from 25 to 40, the widths of the confidence intervals would decrease. This is because a larger sample provides more information about the population and thus increases the precision of the estimate of the population mean.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval Width
Understanding the width of a confidence interval is an essential concept in statistics education. It provides information on the precision of the interval estimate. A narrower interval suggests that the estimate of the population parameter is more precise, whereas a wider interval implies less precision.

Referring to our textbook problem, the interval with the larger width \( (19.9,44.0) \) suggests a higher degree of confidence in the estimation, precisely because it allows for more variability. This interval, being wider, accounts for more uncertainty which is consistent with a 95% confidence interval. Conversely, the narrower interval, \( (22.0,42.8) \), corresponds to a 90% confidence level and indicates less certainty.

In practice, the selection of interval width involves trade-offs. A wide interval may seem disadvantageous due to less precision, but it compensates by increasing the likelihood that the interval contains the true population parameter.
Sample Size Effect
Sample size plays a pivotal role in statistical inference. A fundamental relationship exists between the sample size and the width of the confidence interval: larger sample sizes typically result in narrower confidence intervals.

This is because a larger sample size reduces the standard error, which is a component of the confidence interval formula. Mathematically, the standard error is inversely related to the square root of the sample size \( (SE \propto \frac{1}{\sqrt{n}}) \). As a result, increasing the sample from 25 to 40 players, as in our problem, would make the confidence interval shrink, hence providing a more precise estimate of the population mean.

It is important to remember, however, that after a certain point, the benefit of increasing the sample size will yield diminishing returns in terms of reducing the confidence interval width.
Statistics Education
In the realm of statistics education, grasping the interplay between confidence intervals, sample size, and level of confidence is critical. Educators must emphasize these concepts not just in theory but through practical examples.

Our example from the textbook presents an excellent opportunity for educators to illustrate these statistical principles. By comparing two confidence intervals constructed from the same sample data, students can better understand the implication of confidence levels and sample sizes on the resultant intervals.

Educational strategies often include visual aids, such as graphs and interactive simulations, to help students visualize how changing one element affects the confidence interval overall. It is imperative for learners to recognize why confidence intervals are important in making inferences about a population based on sample data.
Level of Confidence
The level of confidence reflects the degree of certainty we have that our confidence interval actually contains the population mean. Stated as a percentage, it represents how confident we can be in our statistical conclusions.

In the context of the textbook problem, we determine the level of confidence by examining interval width. The wider interval \( (19.9,44.0) \) at 95% confidence level indicates that we expect the true population mean to lie within this range 95 times out of 100. Conversely, the narrower interval \( (22.0,42.8) \) at a 90% confidence level conveys a lower degree of certainty.

Understanding how to choose the appropriate level of confidence is a crucial skill in statistics. It involves balancing the desire for a wide enough interval to be confident that it includes the parameter, and a tight enough interval to provide a useful estimate.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Again In exercise \(9.31\), two intervals were given for the same data, one for \(95 \%\) confidence and one for \(90 \%\) confidence. a. How would a \(99 \%\) interval compare? Would it be narrower than both, wider than both, or between the two in width. Explain. b. If we wanted to use a \(99 \%\) confidence level and get a narrower width, how could we change our data collection?

Showers According to home-water-works.org, the average shower in the United States lasts \(8.2\) minutes. Assume the standard deviation of shower times is 2 minutes and the distribution of shower times is right-skewed. Which of the following questions can be answered using the Central Limit Theorem for sample means as needed? If the question can be answered, do so. If the question cannot be answered, explain why the Central Limit Theorem cannot be applied. a. Find the probability that a randomly selected shower lasts more than 9 minutes. b. If five showers are randomly selected, find the probability that the mean length of the sample is more than 9 minutes. c. If 50 showers are randomly selected, find the probability that the mean length of the sample is more than 9 minutes.

Deflated Footballs? Colts In the 2015 AFC Championship game, there was a charge the New England Patriots deflated their footballs for an advantage. The Patriots' opponents during the championship game were the Indianapolis Colts. Measurements of the Colts footballs were taken. The balls should be inflated to between \(12.5\) and \(13.5\) pounds per square inch (psi). The measurements were \(12.70,12.75,12.50,12.55,12.35,12.30,12.95\), and \(12.15 \mathrm{psi}\) (Source: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/ Deflategate.pdf) a. Test the hypothesis that the population mean is less than \(12.5\) psi using ? significance level of \(0.05\). State clearly whether the Colts' balls are deflated or not. Assume the conditions for a hypothesis test are satisfied. b. Use the data to construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean psi for the Colts' footballs. How does this confidence interval support your conclusion in part a?

Retirement Income Several times during the year, the U.S. Census Bureau takes random samples from the population. One such survey is the American Community Survey. The most recent such survey, based on a large (several thousand) sample of randomly selected households, estimates the mean retirement income in the United States to be \(\$ 21,201\) per year. Suppose we were to make a histogram of all of the retirement incomes from this sample. Would the histogram be a display of the population distribution, the distribution of a sample, or the sampling distribution of means?

Pulse Difference The following numbers are the differences in pulse rate (beats per minute) before and after running for 12 randomly selected people. $$ 24,12,14,12,16,10,0,4,13,42,4, \text { and } 16 $$ Positive numbers mean the pulse rate went up. Test the hypothesis that the mean difference in pulse rate was more than 0 , using a significance level of \(0.05 .\) Assume the population distribution is Normal.

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