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Income in Maryland According to a 2018 Money magazine article, Maryland has one of the highest per capita incomes in the United States, with an average income of \(\$ 75,847\). Suppose the standard deviation is \(\$ 32,000\) and the distribution is right-skewed. A random sample of 100 Maryland residents is taken. a. Is the sample size large enough to use the Central Limit Theorem for means? Explain. b. What would the mean and standard error for the sampling distribution? c. What is the probability that the sample mean will be more than \(\$ 3200\) away from the population mean?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Yes, the sample size of 100 is large enough for the Central Limit Theorem to apply.\nb. The mean for the sample is the same as the population mean, \$75847, and the standard error is \$3200.\nc. However, because the income distribution is right-skewed, we cannot directly calculate the probability that the sample mean will be more than \$3200 away from the population mean using a normal distribution.

Step by step solution

01

Determine Usability of the Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) can apply if the sample size is large enough. Typically, a sample size larger than 30 is considered sufficient. Here, a sample size of 100 Maryland residents is taken, which is greater than 30. So, it can be concluded that the sample size is large enough for the CLT to apply.
02

Calculate Mean and Standard Error

According to the problem, the average income or mean of the population (\(\mu\)) is $75847. The standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) of the population is $32000. The mean of the sample (\(\bar{x}\)) is going to be the same as the population mean, which is $75847. We can calculate the standard error of the sample mean (SE) using the formula \(\sigma / \sqrt{n}\), where \(n\) is the sample size. After substituting \(\sigma\) with 32000 and \(n\) with 100, SE = \(\frac{32000}{10}\) = $3200.
03

Calculate Probability

The problem asks about the probability that the sample mean deviates from the population by more than $3200. This is a two-tailed test, which includes the probability that the sample mean is either $3200 more than or $3200 less than the population mean. So, we convert $3200 into Z-scores using the formula: \(Z = \frac{(X - \mu)}{SE}\), where X is the value of \$3200 away from the population mean on either side (i.e., \$75847 + \$3200 and \$75847 - \$3200). However, because the distribution is right-skewed, we cannot directly calculate the probability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Distribution
Imagine performing the same survey or experiment over and over again, each time with a new random sample. The sample means would vary slightly from one another due to the randomness of sample selection. This collection of sample means is called a sampling distribution, and it shows us how the sample means are distributed around the true population mean.
In the context of Maryland's income, if we repeatedly took samples of 100 residents, we'd end up with many different sample means due to variability in each sample. According to the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), regardless of the original income distribution's shape, the sampling distribution of the mean will tend to be approximately normally distributed as the sample size becomes large (usually n > 30 is sufficient). This is especially helpful with right-skewed distributions like income, because it allows us to use normal distribution techniques to make inferences about the population mean from sample data.
Standard Error
The concept of standard error (SE) is pivotal in statistics. It tells us how far the sample mean (\bar{x}) is likely to be from the population mean (\text{\textmu}), on average. Mathematically, it's the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. The smaller the standard error, the more closely the sample mean estimates the population mean.
In our Maryland income example, the standard error can be calculated using the formula: SE = \frac{\text{\textsigma}}{\text{\textsurd} n}, where \text{\textsigma} is the population standard deviation and n is the sample size. With an SE of \(3200, we expect most sample means from the population to be within \)3200 of the true average income of Maryland. It serves as a measure of uncertainty: if we were to take many samples, the SE tells us how much the resulting means would typically vary.
Sample Mean Probability
When we speak about sample mean probability, we often want to know how likely it is for a sample mean to fall within a certain range. This involves calculating the probability that the sample mean will differ from the population mean by more than a certain amount, a question that can be approached using the normal distribution if the conditions of the CLT are met.
The exercise asks for the probability that the sample mean will be more than $3200 away from the population mean. Usually, we would calculate this using the Z-score, which measures the number of standard errors a point is from the mean. But because the population distribution is right-skewed, the sample mean distribution may require additional nonparametric methods or a transformation to calculate this probability accurately, especially with smaller sample sizes.
Right-Skewed Distribution
A right-skewed distribution, also known as a positively skewed distribution, is characterized by a long tail on the right side. In other words, there are a minority of very high values that 'pull' the mean towards the right. Such distributions are common in data pertaining to income, house prices, and insurance claims.
In a right-skewed distribution, the mean is typically greater than the median, and most data points fall to the left of the mean. This can be tricky when applying the CLT because the theorem assumes the distribution of the sample means approximates a normal distribution. For the theorem to hold true in the case of a skewed population, a larger sample size is often needed to 'average out' the asymmetry of the population data. Even with a large sample size, analysts must be cautious when interpreting results since the skewness can affect the accuracy of the probability calculations for extreme values.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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