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A Quinnipiac poll conducted on February 20 , 2018, found that 824 people out of 1249 surveyed favored stricter gun control laws. A survey conducted one week later on February 28 , 2018 , by National Public Radio found that 754 out of 1005 people surveyed favored stricter gun control laws. a. Find both sample proportions and compare them. b. Test the hypothesis that the population proportions are not equal at the \(0.05\) significance level. c. After conducting the hypothesis test, a further question one might ask is what is the difference between the two population proportions? Find a 95\% confidence interval for the difference between the two proportions and interpret it. How does the confidence interval support the hypothesis test conclusion?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The task begins with finding the sample proportions which are 0.6597 and 0.7502 respectively for Quinnipiac and National Public Radio. In the second step, we test the hypothesis. If the computed z score is less than the critical value, we fail to reject the null hypothesis, meaning there is no significant difference in the population proportions. The confidence interval in step 3 will show the range of values that the difference in the population proportions may fall into. Depending on the hypothesis test result, you can interpret the meaning of this confidence interval related to the research problem.

Step by step solution

01

Sample Proportions

Find the sample proportions \(p1\) and \(p2\) for Quinnipiac and National Public Radio, respectively: \[ p1 = \frac{824}{1249} \] \[ p2 = \frac{754}{1005} \] The difference between these two proportions can be found as: \( p1 - p2 \) In this step, the proportion of people supporting stricter gun laws is found from both polls.
02

Hypothesis Test

Two hypotheses should be provided. The null hypothesis \(H0: p1 = p2\) and the alternative hypothesis \(H1: p1 \neq p2\). In this step, use the z-test to test the hypothesis that the population proportions are not equal at the 0.05 significance level. The test statistic can be calculated using this formula: \[ z = \frac{(p1 - p2) - 0}{\sqrt{p(1 - p)(\frac{1}{n1} + \frac{1}{n2})}} \] where \(p = \frac{n1p1 + n2p2}{n1 + n2}\) After the computation of the z-score, it should be compared with the critical value to decide whether to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis.
03

Confidence Interval

The 95% confidence interval of the difference of proportions \(p1 - p2\) can be found using the formula: \[ p1 - p2 \pm (1.96 \times \sqrt{p1(1 - p1)/n1 + p2(1 - p2)/n2}) \] This margin of error gives a range of values which is likely to contain the difference of population proportions with a confidence of 95%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
Sample proportions are used to estimate the proportion of a specific attribute in a given population based on the collected data. In the context of our problem, two different surveys were conducted, and the sample proportions represent the fraction of participants in each survey who favored stricter gun control laws.
  • For the Quinnipiac survey, the sample proportion, \( p_1 \), is found using the formula \( p_1 = \frac{824}{1249} \). This results in a proportion of participants in favor of stricter laws based on the total number of respondents.
  • Similarly, for the National Public Radio survey, the sample proportion, \( p_2 \), is calculated as \( p_2 = \frac{754}{1005} \).
These proportions are crucial as they form the foundation for the next steps in hypothesis testing.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval provides a range of values that is believed to encompass the true parameter of a population, with a certain degree of confidence (usually 95%). It offers an interval estimate rather than a single point estimate, which allows for assessing the reliability of the estimate. In the given exercise, we aim to find a 95% confidence interval for the difference between the two sample proportions, \( p_1 - p_2 \). The formula to calculate the confidence interval is: \[p_1 - p_2 \pm 1.96 \times \sqrt{\frac{p_1(1-p_1)}{n_1} + \frac{p_2(1-p_2)}{n_2}}\]This equation calculates the margin of error, which when added and subtracted from the difference between the sample proportions, provides an interval estimate. The value 1.96 is used in this scenario because it corresponds to a 95% confidence level, derived from a standard normal distribution. If the interval does not contain zero, it supports the conclusion that there's a significant difference between the two population proportions.
Population Proportions
Population proportions are the unknown quantities we are trying to estimate with our sample data. They represent the true proportion of the entire population that shares a particular characteristic, such as favoring stricter gun control laws.The primary goal of hypothesis testing in this scenario is to determine whether there is a statistical difference between the two population proportions derived from our sample proportions. Let's break it down:
  • The null hypothesis \( H_0: p_1 = p_2 \) indicates that there is no difference in population proportions regarding the support for gun control laws.
  • The alternative hypothesis \( H_1: p_1 eq p_2 \) suggests that such a difference does exist.
A z-test is conducted to assess these hypotheses. Calculating the test statistic involves estimating an overall proportion \( p \) for the two samples combined:\[p = \frac{n_1p_1 + n_2p_2}{n_1 + n_2}\]Then, we compute the z-score, which quantifies the difference between our sample observations and what we'd expect if the null hypothesis were true. If the z-score indicates a rare event under the null hypothesis, we reject it, suggesting that a significant difference in population proportions likely exists.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Choose one of the answers given. The null hypothesis is always a statement about a (sample statistic or population parameter).

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