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A researcher studying extrasensory perception (ESP) tests 300 students. Each student is asked to predict the outcome of a large number of coin flips. For each student, a hypothesis test using a \(5 \%\) significance level is performed. If the \(\mathrm{p}\) -value is less than or equal to \(0.05\), the researcher concludes that the student has ESP. Assuming that none of the 300 students actually have ESP, about how many would you expect the researcher to conclude do have ESP? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
You would expect about 15 students to be falsely identified by the researcher as having ESP.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the concept of significance level and hypothesis testing

In hypothesis testing, the p-value is a measure of the evidence against the null hypothesis. When the p-value is less than or equal to the significance level (in this case, 0.05), we reject the null hypothesis. Here, the null hypothesis is that a student does not have ESP.
02

Apply the concept to the given problem

The significance level of 0.05 also means that we would expect 5% of all coin flips to falsely reject the null hypothesis (when the null hypothesis is true). That is to say, when a student doesn't have ESP, there’s still a 5% chance that the student will be identified to possess ESP by luck alone.
03

Calculate the expected number of students with ESP

Given that 300 students are tested, and assuming that none of them have ESP, you can expect that about 5% of them would be falsely identified as having ESP due to the significance level of the hypothesis test. Calculating this number, we have \((5/100)*300 = 15\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Significance Level
When we perform a hypothesis test, we determine a cut-off point called the significance level, which is crucial in deciding whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. This level represents the threshold of probability below which we consider the results statistically significant. In other words, it's the limit that we set to determine if the test statistics are extreme enough to doubt the null hypothesis.

For example, a 5% significance level, denoted as \(0.05\), is a common choice. This means we'd be accepting a 5% risk of concluding there is an effect or difference when there isn't one, essentially risking a false positive. In the context of testing for extrasensory perception (ESP) or any other phenomenon, setting the significance level is a balance between being too lenient (and possibly reporting false positives) and being too strict (and possibly missing a true effect).
p-value
The p-value is a pivotal concept in hypothesis testing. It indicates the probability of obtaining a result as extreme as, or more extreme than, the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. The lower the p-value, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis. It is essentially a gauge of how surprising the observed data is under the assumption of no effect or no difference.

In the ESP study scenario, if a student's p-value is less than or equal to 0.05, the researcher would reject the null hypothesis for that student. However, it's important to understand that a p-value is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true or false; it is merely a measure of how compatible the data are with the null hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis
At the heart of hypothesis testing lies the null hypothesis, often denoted as \(H_0\). It's the default statement we test against, representing no effect or no change. In the realm of ESP, the null hypothesis would be that a given student does not have ESP; that any correct predictions of coin flips are due to random chance alone.

The null hypothesis is a skeptic's starting point, and we require strong evidence from our data to reject it. When a p-value is less than the significance level, we take this as evidence against the null hypothesis strong enough to consider alternative explanations—for example, that a student might actually possess ESP. However, rejecting the null hypothesis does not prove the alternative; it simply suggests our data aren't consistent with the idea of no effect.
Extrasensory Perception (ESP)
Extrasensory perception (ESP) refers to the ability to obtain information without the use of known sensory channels. The concept is often explored in parapsychology and has been a subject of fascination and skepticism alike. Hypothesis testing in the context of ESP attempts to determine whether individuals can perform better than chance at tasks like predicting coin flips.

In the classroom experiment with 300 students, the idea is to test whether any students demonstrate abilities indicative of ESP. By choosing a significance level and comparing p-values against it, the researcher is employing statistical methods to rigorously evaluate extraordinary claims. It's a practical example of how statistics can probe the edges of scientific understanding.
False Positive
The term false positive refers to an erroneous conclusion that there is an effect or a difference when in fact there isn't—incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis. It's one type of error statisticians call a Type I error. In our exercise, setting a 5% significance level implicitly accepts that there is a 5% chance of claiming a student has ESP when they do not.

The expected number of false positives, in this case, is critical for interpreting results. Even when none of the students have ESP, we would expect that, on average, 5% of them (15 out of 300) could be incorrectly identified as having ESP simply by the nature of statistical variation. Being aware of the false positive risk helps researchers understand that not every statistical significance observed is necessarily an indication of a true effect.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Freedom of the Press A Gallup poll asked college students in 2016 and again in 2017 whether they believed the First Amendment guarantee of freedom of the press was secure or threatened in the country today. In 2016,2489 out of 3072 students surveyed said that freedom of the press was secure or very secure. In 2017, 1808 out of 2014 students surveyed felt this way. a. Determine whether the proportion of college students who believe that freedom of the press is secure or very secure in the country changed from 2016 . Use a significance level of \(0.05\). b. Use the sample data to construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of college students in 2016 and 2017 who felt freedom of the press was secure or very secure. How does your confidence interval support your hypothesis test conclusion?

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