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a. If a rifleman's gunsight is adjusted correctly, but he has shaky arms. the bullets might be scattered widely around the bull's-eye target. Draw a sketch of the target with the bullet holes. Does this show variation (lack of precision) or bias? b. Draw a second sketch of the target if the shots are unbiased and have precision (little variation). The rifleman's aim is not perfect, so your sketches should show more than one bullet hole.

Short Answer

Expert verified
In the first scenario, the rifleman's shaky hands cause a high level of variation, but no bias, as the bullets scatter around the target but the mean position is still the bull's-eye. In the second scenario, the shots are unbiased and have high precision, as each bullet hole group is small and centered around the bull's-eye leading to low variation and no bias.

Step by step solution

01

Sketch of the target with bullet holes showcasing variation

To create a visual representation of variation, make a sketch of the target with bullet holes dispersed around the bull's-eye. The bullet holes do not need to be perfectly grouped together and can vary in location. This shows a lack of precision, which translates into high variation.
02

Classify the rifleman's performance in the first scenario

Even though the bullet holes are dispersed around the target, imagine the mean location is still the bull's-eye. This signifies that the rifleman doesn't have a systematic tendency to shoot either too high, too low, too left, or too right - this means it shows variation, not bias.
03

Sketch of the target with bullet holes illustrating little variation and no bias

In the second scenario, the chips are closely grouped together and near the bull's-eye. Make a sketch of the target with bullet holes precisely close to the bull's-eye. The smaller the group of bullet holes, the less variation and the closer the group is situated to the bull's-eye, the less bias.
04

Classify the rifleman's performance in the second scenario

As the bullet holes are closely grouped near the bull's-eye, it is clear that there is little variation. Also, because the group is centered around the bullseye, there is no noticeable bias in the rifleman's performance. This signifies that the shots are highly precise and unbiased.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Precision in Statistics
Precision in statistics is akin to a sharpshooter aiming with unerring accuracy, where each shot consistently lands close to the intended target. Imagine each data point as a bullet hole on a target; high precision means the bullet holes would cluster tightly together, regardless of whether they hit the bull's-eye or not.

For a more concrete understanding, consider a scenario in which a rifleman with steady arms fires a series of shots. If the shots consistently land in close proximity to one another but not necessarily at the center of the target, this reflects high precision as there is minimal scatter among the data points (or bullet holes). In statistical terms, precision is about the spread of measurements or values, denoting repeatability and consistency of the data.

In a classroom exercise, students may be asked to depict this by drawing bullet holes tightly clustered on a target. The proximity of these bullet holes to one another (not just to the bull's-eye) exemplifies the concept of precision—and how it differs from accuracy, which would require the shots to be both precise and centered on the bull's-eye.
Bias vs. Variation
To grasp the distinction between bias and variation, visualize a dartboard. If a player consistently hits to the left of the bull's-eye, that player's throw is biased; however, if their darts scatter wildly across the board, this demonstrates high variation.

In the context of the rifleman example, the presence of bias would be shown if, over several shots, the average position of the bullet holes deviates from the bull's-eye. This systematic displacement is akin to a consistent error, reflecting bias in the rifleman's aiming. Conversely, variation refers to the spread or dispersion of the shots. High variation means a wide scatter around the bull's-eye, signifying a lack of control or precision, regardless of any bias.

The educational task here is often to illustrate the absence of bias by centering the group of bullet holes on the bull's-eye and to show precision by making that group tightly clustered. An unbiased and precise performance by the rifleman is the ultimate goal, symbolizing data with no systematic error (bias) and with little random error (variation).
Representing Data Dispersion
Data dispersion is a term that refers to the extent to which data points spread out. Using the rifleman metaphor, a wide spread of bullet holes on the target represents high data dispersion. In the classroom, students can illustrate this concept by plotting data points (or bullet holes) with varying distances from each other and from the center point (the bull's-eye).

Statistical measures such as variance, standard deviation, and range are used to quantify this dispersion. A low value for these measures indicates the data points are closely clustered, akin to bullet holes grouped near the bull's-eye, suggesting low dispersion. On the other hand, higher values signify a broader spread, like bullet holes scattered across the target, indicating high dispersion.

To improve students' comprehension of data dispersion, encourage them to create graphical representations, such as scatter plots or box plots. These visual aids can help students better understand the concept of dispersion by clearly showing the spread of data points. Emphasizing real-world scenarios where dispersion is significant, such as in quality control or forecasting, can further solidify their grasp on this fundamental statistical concept.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

To determine if patrons are satisfied with performance quality, a theater surveys patrons at an evening performance by placing a paper survey inside their programs. All patrons receive a program as they enter the theater. Completed surveys are placed in boxes at the theater exits. On the evening of the survey, 500 patrons saw the performance. One hundred surveys were completed, and \(70 \%\) of these surveys indicated dissatisfaction with the performance. Should the theater conclude that patrons were dissatisfied with performance quality? Explain.

Suppose it is known that \(60 \%\) of employees at a company use a Flexible Spending Account (FSA) benefit. a. If a random sample of 200 employees is selected, do we expect that exactly \(60 \%\) of the sample uses an FSA? Why or why not? b. Find the standard error for samples of size 200 drawn from this population. What adjustments could be made to the sampling method to produce a sample proportion that is more precise?

According to a 2017 Pew Research Center report on voting issues, \(59 \%\) of Americans feel that the everything should be done to make it easy for every citizen to vote. Suppose a random sample of 200 Americans is selected. We are interested in finding the probability that the proportion of the sample who feel with way is greater than \(55 \%\). a. Without doing any calculations, determine whether this probability will be greater than \(50 \%\) or less than \(50 \%\). Explain your reasoning. b. Calculate the probability that the sample proportion is \(55 \%\) or more.

In 2017 , the journal Obesity reported on trends in sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. A random sample of youths aged 12 to 19 years old were asked to monitor all food and beverages consumed in a 24 -hour period. The study was done in 2003 and repeated in 2014 . The numbers who consumed a sugary beverage such as soda or fruit juice in a day are shown in the table. (Bleich et al., "Trends in Beverage Consumption among Children and Adults, 2003-2014," Obesity, vol. 26 [2018]: 432-441. doi:10.1002/oby.22056) $$ \begin{array}{|l|l|} \hline \text { Consumed SSB } & \mathbf{2 0 0 3} & \mathbf{2 0 1 4} \\ \hline \text { Yes } & 3416 & 2682 \\ \hline \text { No } & 685 & 1419 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Calculate and compare the percentages of youths in this age group who consumed an SSB during the recording period. b. Check that the conditions for using a two-population confidence interval hold. c. Find the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportion of youth consuming an SSB in 2003 and 2014. Based on your confidence interval, do you think there has been a change in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption among this age group? Explain.

Chapman University conducts an annual Survey of American Fears. One of the objectives of this survey is to collect annual data on the fears, worries, and concerns of Americans. In 2017 the survey sampled 1207 participants. One of the survey findings was that \(16 \%\) believe that Bigfoot is a real creature. Identify the sample and population. Is the value \(16 \%\) a parameter or a statistic? What symbol would be use for this value?

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