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According to a recent Gallup poll, \(62 \%\) of Americans took a vacation away from home in \(2017 .\) Suppose two Americans are randomly selected. a. What is the probability that both took a vacation away from home in \(2017 ?\) b. What is the probability that neither took a vacation away from home in \(2017 ?\) c. What is the probability that at least one of them took a vacation away from home in \(2017 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The probability that both took a vacation in 2017 is \(0.3844\). b) The probability that neither took a vacation in 2017 is \(0.1444\). c) The probability that at least one of them took a vacation in 2017 is \(0.8556\).

Step by step solution

01

Analyze the Given Information and Statements

From the exercise, it is known that the probability of an American taking a vacation in 2017 is \(0.62\) (or \(62\% \)). The problem states that two Americans are randomly selected. The events 'American 1 took a vacation' and 'American 2 took a vacation' are independent, meaning one event does not affect the probability of the other event happening.
02

Calculate the Probability of Both Taking a Vacation

For Part a), the problem asks for the probability that both Americans took a vacation. Since the events are independent, this probability is found by multiplying the individual probabilities of each event occuring. Therefore, the probability is \(0.62 * 0.62 = 0.3844\).
03

Calculate the Probability of Neither Taking a Vacation

For Part b), the problem asks for the probability that neither American took a vacation, meaning they both did not take a vacation. The probability of an American not taking a vacation is \(1 - 0.62 = 0.38\). Multiply the individual probabilities: \(0.38 * 0.38 = 0.1444\).
04

Calculate the Probability of At Least One Taking a Vacation

For Part c), the problem asks for the probability that at least one American took a vacation, meaning one or both took a vacation. This is calculated as \(1\) minus the probability that neither took a vacation. From step 3, the probability of neither taking a vacation is \(0.1444\). Therefore, the probability of at least one taking a vacation is \(1 - 0.1444 = 0.8556\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
Understanding independent events is crucial when considering multiple occurrences in probability. An event is said to be independent when the outcome of one does not influence the outcome of another. For example, flipping a coin and rolling a die simultaneously are independent events because the result of the coin flip has no bearing on the result of the die roll and vice versa.

In the context of our exercise, the selection of one American's vacation status does not impact the other's chances. Assuming independence is valid given the scenario's phrasing, we can then perform probability calculations that involve multiple components. It's important for students not just to recognize when events are independent, but also to justify this assumption based on the context of the problem.
Probability Calculations
Probability calculations are the bread and butter of predicting outcomes in statistics. The probability of an event is usually expressed as a fraction or a decimal, ranging from 0 (the event will not occur) to 1 (the event will definitely occur). If you're given a percentage, like in our exercise, it's easy to convert this to a decimal by dividing by 100.

To calculate the probability of both independent events occurring, you multiply their individual probabilities, as we did in the solution by multiplying 0.62 by 0.62. This operation hinges on the assumption that the events are independent. These calculations enable clear quantification of scenarios that otherwise might seem complex. By mastering the process of probability calculations, students can approach similar problems with confidence. It’s vital to ensure you perform each calculation step with care to avoid errors that can cascade and affect your final result.
Complementary Probability
Complementary probability refers to the likelihood that the complement of an event will occur, which is to say, if the original event does not happen. The probability of an event and its complement always add up to 1. This concept is especially handy when it's easier to calculate the probability of an event not happening than the event happening itself.

In our exercise, finding the probability of at least one person taking a vacation was simplified by first finding the probability that neither did, and then subtracting it from 1, as detailed in the solution. Complementary probability often simplifies calculations and is a helpful strategy in a wide array of probability problems. Encouraging students to think in terms of event complements can provide a different angle to approach problems, which can sometimes offer a more intuitive understanding of the situation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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