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A 2018 Pew Research poll recorded respondents political affiliation and generation. A summary of the results for Millennials and GenXers are shown in the following table, assuming a sample size of 200 . Test the hypothesis that political party affiliation and generation are associated at the \(0.05\) level for these generations. $$ \begin{array}{|lcc|} \hline & \text { Political Party Affiliation } \\ \hline \text { Generation } & \text { Democrat } & \text { Republican } \\ \hline \text { Millennials } & 118 & 64 \\ \hline \text { GenX } & 98 & 86 \\ \hline \end{array} $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
Without the exact calculations using the provided table, a specific conclusion can't be drawn yet. However, if p-value < 0.05, it will lead to the rejection of the null hypothesis, suggesting that there is an association between political party affiliation and generation. Otherwise, if p-value > 0.05, the null hypothesis will not be rejected, suggesting that there is no association between the two.

Step by step solution

01

Define Null and Alternative Hypotheses

In the chi-square test for independence, the null hypothesis, \(H_0\), states that the two categorical variables are independent, while the alternative hypothesis, \(H_a\), states that there is a dependence or association between the variables. In this case: Null Hypothesis, \(H_0\): Political party affiliation and generation are independent. Alternative Hypothesis, \(H_a\): Political party affiliation and generation are not independent.
02

Calculate Expected Values

Using the formulas for expected values for each cell in a 2x2 table: Expected values are calculated as (row total * column total) / overall total. Calculate these for each cell.
03

Compute Chi-Square Test Statistic

The formula for the chi-square test statistic is \(\chi^2 = \sum ((O_i - E_i)^2 / E_i)\), where \(O_i\) are the observed values (the values given in the table), and \(E_i\) are the expected values calculated in step 2.
04

Find the p-value

For a 2x2 contingency table, the degrees of freedom (df) is 1 (computed as (number of rows - 1)*(number of columns - 1)). Use this value and the computed chi-square statistic to find the p-value from chi-square distribution table.
05

Make a Decision

Compare the calculated p-value with the given significance level (0.05). If the p-value is less than 0.05, reject the null hypothesis. If it's greater, fail to reject it.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
When performing a Chi-Square Test for Independence, the first step is to define the null and alternative hypotheses.
The null hypothesis, represented as \(H_0\), suggests that two categorical variables are independent of each other.
In our context, this means that political party affiliation is not influenced by the generation the respondents belong to. Contrastingly, the alternative hypothesis, denoted as \(H_a\), proposes an association between the variables.
This would imply that political affiliation does have a relationship with the generation of the respondents.
Clearly defining these hypotheses is crucial because it sets the framework for the statistical test, helping us know what we need to either reject or fail to reject based on our analysis. Remember, our study revolves around seeing if there's a significant difference in political party affiliation between Millennials and GenXers.
  • **Null Hypothesis \(H_0\):** Generation and political affiliation are independent.
  • **Alternative Hypothesis \(H_a\):** Generation and political affiliation are not independent.
Expected Values Calculation
The expected values represent how the data should be distributed across the categories if no association exists.
To calculate these expected numbers, the formula used is \((\text{row total} \,\times\, \text{column total}) / \text{overall total}\).
This calculation is essential in assessing whether the observed frequencies differ from what we expect under the null hypothesis. Let's break it down with our data:
1. Determine the totals for rows and columns.2. Insert these totals into our formula for each cell in the table.For instance, the expected value for Millennials identifying as Democrats would be:\[\left( \frac{(\text{Total Millennials}) \times (\text{Total Democrats})}{\text{Total number of respondents}} \right)\] Calculating correctly at each step ensures a solid foundation for further analysis. Remember, these expected values form the backbone of the next stages of the test.
Test Statistic Computation
Determining the test statistic is a critical part of the Chi-Square test for independence.
The formula used to compute this test statistic is \[ \chi^2 = \sum \left( \frac{ (O_i - E_i)^2 }{ E_i } \right) \] Here, \(O_i\) denotes the observed values from our table, and \(E_i\) are the expected values we calculated earlier. Subsequently, for each cell in our 2x2 table:
  • Subtract the expected value from the observed value.
  • Square the result to avoid negative differences.
  • Divide by the expected value to normalize the difference.
Add these normalized differences to get the total chi-square statistic. This step highlights how much the observed data deviate from what was expected, indicating potential associations between the variables. The larger the chi-square statistic, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis.
P-value Comparison
The p-value obtained from the Chi-Square Test tells us the probability that the observed distribution happened under the null hypothesis.
In simpler terms, it's the chance that any detected relationship could have appeared purely by accident.In this case, for a 2x2 table, the degrees of freedom \(df\) is calculated as:\[(df = (\text{number of rows} - 1) \times (\text{number of columns} - 1))\]which equals 1.
Using the degrees of freedom and the calculated chi-square statistic, look up or calculate the p-value.
Finally, compare this p-value to the significance level, which is typically set at 0.05.
  • If the p-value is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis, suggesting a significant association.
  • If the p-value is greater than 0.05, we do not reject the null hypothesis, indicating no significant association.
This comparison step informs us about the validity of our hypotheses decision. It allows us to draw conclusions about the independence or association of the variables in question.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose you are testing two different injections by randomly assigning them to children who react badly to bee stings and go to the emergency room. You observe whether the children are substantially improved within an hour after the injection. However, one of the expected counts is less than 5 .

In the study described in exercise \(10.55\). researchers (Du Toits et al., 2015) also studied infants with eczema, egg allergies, or both who also had a preexisting sensitivity to peanut extract. These infants were also randomly assigned to either consume or avoid peanuts until 60 months of age. The numbers in each group developing a peanut allergy by 60 months of age are shown in the following table. $$ \begin{array}{lcc} & \text { Treatment Group } \\ \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Peanut allergy at age } \\ \text { 60 mos. } \end{array} & \text { Consume peanuts } & \text { Avoid peanuts } \\ \hline \text { Yes } & 5 & 18 \\ \text { No } & 43 & 33 \end{array} $$ a. Compare the percentages in each group that developed a peanut allergy by age 60 months. b. Test the hypothesis that treatment group and peanut allergy are associated using the chi-square statistic. Use a significance level of \(0.05\). c. Do a Fisher's Exact Test for the data with the same significance level. Report the two-tailed p-value and your conclusion. (Use technology to run the test.) d. Compare the p-values for parts \(\mathrm{b}\) and \(\mathrm{c}\). Which is more accurate? Explain.

See exercise \(10.21\) for an explanation of playing with the dreidel. This time the family used a plastic dreidel and got the following outcomes. The four outcomes are believed to be equally likely (that is, has a uniform probability distribution). Determine whether the plastic dreidel does not follow the uniform distribution using a significance level of \(0.05\). $$ \begin{array}{cccc} \text { gimmel } & \text { hey } & \text { nun } & \text { shin } \\ 11 & 9 & 11 & 9 \end{array} $$

Here are the conviction rates with the "stand your ground" data mentioned in the previous exercise. "White shooter on nonwhite" means that a white assailant shot a minority victim. $$ \begin{array}{lr} & \text { Conviction Rate } \\ \hline \text { White shooter on white } & 35 / 97=36.1 \% \\ \text { White shooter on nonwhite } & 3 / 21=14.3 \% \\ \text { Nonwhite shooter on white } & 8 / 22=36.4 \% \\ \text { Nonwhite shooter on nonwhite } & 11 / 45=24.4 \% \end{array} $$ a. Which has the higher conviction rate: white shooter on nonwhite or nonwhite shooter on white? b. Create a two-way table using White Shooter on Nonwhite and NonWhite Shooter on White across the top and Convicted and Not Con- victed on the side. c. Test the hypothesis that race and conviction rate (for these two groups) are independent at the \(0.05\) level. d. Because some of the expected counts are pretty low, try a Fisher's Exact Test with the data, reporting the p-value (two-tailed) and the conclusion.

When playing Dreidel, (see photo) you sit in a circle with friends or relatives and take turns spinning a wobbly top (the dreidel). In the center of the circle is a pot of several foil-wrapped chocolate coins. If the four-sided top lands on the Hebrew letter gimmel, you take the whole pot and everyone needs to contribute to the pot again. If it lands on hey, you take half the pot. If it lands on nun, nothing happens. If it lands on \(\operatorname{shin}\), you put a coin in. Then the next player takes a turn. Each of the four outcomes is believed to be equally likely. One of the author's families got the following outcomes while playing with a wooden dreidel during Hanukah. Determine whether the outcomes allow us to conclude that the dreidel is biased (the four outcomes are not equally likely). Use a significance level of \(0.05\). $$ \begin{array}{cccc} \text { gimmel } & \text { hey } & \text { nun } & \text { shin } \\ 5 & 1 & 7 & 27 \end{array} $$

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