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According to ValuePenguin, the average annual cost of automobile insurance was \(\$ 1388\) in the state of Nevada in 2014 (www. valuepenguin.com). An insurance broker is interested to find if the current mean annual rate of automobile insurance in Nevada is more than \(\$ 1388\). She took a random sample of 100 insured automobiles from the state of Nevada and found the mean annual automobile insurance rate of \(\$ 1413\) with a standard deviation of \(\$ 122\). a. Using a \(1 \%\) significance level and the critical-value approach, can you conclude that the current mean annual automobile insurance rate in Nevada is higher than \(\$ 1388\) ? b. Find the range for the \(p\) -value for this test. What will your conclusion be using this \(p\) -value range and \(\alpha=.01\) ?

Short Answer

Expert verified
If the z-value calculated in Step 2 exceeds 2.33, reject the null hypothesis and conclude the mean automobile insurance rate in Nevada is more than \$1388. If the p-value obtained in step 5 is less than 0.01, the conclusion would remain unchanged.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate Hypotheses

The null hypothesis, \(H_0\), is that the mean annual automobile insurance rate is not more than \$1388 i.e., \(\mu \leq 1388\). The alternative hypothesis, \(H_1\), is that the mean rate is more than \$1388 i.e., \(\mu > 1388\).
02

Calculate the Test Statistic

The z-value can be calculated using the formula, \( z = \frac{{\bar{x} - \mu_{0}}}{{\frac{{\sigma}}{\sqrt{n}}}} \), replacing \(\bar{x}\) with 1413, \(\mu_{0}\) with 1388, \(\sigma\) with 122 and \(n\) with 100. This gives \(z = \frac{{1413 - 1388}}{{\frac{122}{\sqrt{100}}}}\). Calculate this value.
03

Find the Critical Value

Since this is a one-sided test with a 1% significance level, look at a standard normal distribution table or use a z-table calculator to find that the critical z-value for \(\alpha = 0.01\) is approximately 2.33.
04

Compare Test Statistic and Critical Value

If the calculated z-value from Step 2 is greater than 2.33, reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the mean annual automobile insurance rate in Nevada is greater than \$1388.
05

Find the p-value

The p-value represents the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as, or more extreme than, the result obtained, should the null hypothesis be true. If the p-value is smaller than the significance level, reject the null hypothesis.
06

Draw Conclusions

Using the p-value from step 5, if it's less than \(\alpha = 0.01\), reject the null hypothesis, concluding that the mean annual automobile insurance rate in Nevada is significantly greater than \$1388.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
Hypothesis testing begins with defining a null hypothesis, often denoted as \( H_0 \). This is a statement that gives us a starting point for any statistical test. It generally posits that there is no effect or no difference, implying that any observed variation is due to sampling or experimental error.
In the context of our problem, the null hypothesis suggests that the mean annual automobile insurance rate in Nevada is not greater than \( \\(1388 \). Mathematically, it can be expressed as \( \mu \leq 1388 \). This hypothesis assumes that the insurance rate remains at \( \\)1388 \) or less, reflecting the existing belief or status quo.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, noted as \( H_1 \), challenges the null hypothesis. It proposes a new theory or claim and is what we are aiming to find evidence for in the study.
For our exercise, the insurance broker suspects that the current average annual rate exceeds \( \$1388 \). Thus, the alternative hypothesis is \( \mu > 1388 \). This claim suggests that there has been an increase in the insurance rate, indicating a shift from the previous average documented.
Z-test
The Z-test is a statistical test used to determine if there is a significant difference between sample and population means. It is particularly useful when dealing with large sample sizes or when the population variance is known.
To perform a Z-test, we calculate the Z-value using the formula: \[ z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_{0}}{\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}}\]Here, \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean, \( \mu_{0} \) is the population mean under the null hypothesis, \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size. For the exercise, the sample mean is \( \\(1413 \), and the population mean is \( \\)1388 \). By substituting these values in, we derive the Z-value to help compare against the critical value.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted as \( \alpha \), is a threshold set before the data analysis. It represents the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is, in fact, true, often set at \( 5\% \), \( 1\% \), or \( 0.1\% \). For this problem, we have a \( 1\% \) significance level, implying a high standard, requiring strong evidence to reject \( H_0 \).
Using a significance level of \( 1\% \), our critical value for a one-sided test can be found from the standard normal distribution, which is approximately \( 2.33 \). We compare our calculated Z-value to this critical value to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. If the Z-value exceeds \( 2.33 \), it marks the difference as statistically significant, leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. This means the mean insurance rate is deemed higher than \( \$1388 \) based on the sample data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Write the null and alternative hypotheses for each of the following examples. Determine if each is a case of a two-tailed, a left-tailed, or a right-tailed test. a. To test if the mean amount of time spent per week watching sports on television by all adult men is different from \(9.5\) hours b. To test if the mean amount of money spent by all customers at a supermarket is less than \(\$ 105\) c. To test whether the mean starting salary of college graduates is higher than \(\$ 47,000\) per year d. To test if the mean waiting time at the drive-through window at a fast food restaurant during rush hour differs from 10 minutes e. To test if the mean time spent per week on house chores by all housewives is less than 30 hours

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What does the level of significance represent in a test of hypothesis? Explain.

According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release of March 25, 2015, financial analysts earned an average of \(\$ 110,510\) in 2014 . Suppose that the 2014 earnings of all financial analysts had a mean of \(\$ 110,510\). A recent sample of 400 financial analysts showed that they earn an average of \(\$ 114,630\) a year. Assume that the standard deviation of the annual earnings of all financial analysts is \(\$ 30,570\). a. Using the critical-value approach, can you conclude that the current average annual earnings of financial analysts is higher than \(\$ 110,510 ?\) Use \(\alpha=.01\). b. What is the Type I error in part a? Explain. What is the probability of making this error in part a? c. Will your conclusion of part a change if the probability of making a Type I error is zero? d. Calculate the \(p\) -value for the test of part a. What is your conclusion if \(\alpha=.01 ?\)

In Las Vegas, Nevada, and Atlantic City, New Jersey, tests are performed often on the various gaming devices used in casinos. For example, dice are often tested to determine if they are balanced. Suppose you are assigned the task of testing a die, using a two-tailed test to make sure that the probability of a 2 -spot is \(1 / 6\). Using a \(5 \%\) significance level, determine how many 2 -spots you would have to obtain to reject the null hypothesis when your sample size is a. 120 b. 1200 c. 12,000 Calculate the value of \(\hat{p}\) for each of these three cases. What can you say about the relationship between (1) the difference between \(\hat{p}\) and \(1 / 6\) that is necessary to reject the null hypothesis and (2) the sample size as it gets larger?

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