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Consider the following null and alternative hypotheses: $$ H_{0}: \mu=25 \text { versus } H_{1}: \mu \neq 25 $$ Suppose you perform this test at \(\alpha=.05\) and reject the null hypothesis. Would you state that the difference between the hypothesized value of the population mean and the observed value of the sample mean is "statistically significant" or would you state that this difference is "statistically not significant?" Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The difference between the hypothesized value of the population mean and the observed value of the sample mean is 'statistically significant'.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Statistical Significance

The term 'statistically significant' is used when the observed difference is unlikely to have occurred by chance, given that the null hypothesis is true. This is determined using a pre-specified probability threshold, the significance level, often denoted as \( \alpha \). In this case, \( \alpha = 0.05 \). If the p-value obtained from the test is less than this \( \alpha \) level, we reject the null hypothesis and declare the result as statistically significant.
02

Analyze the Result of Hypothesis Test

In this problem, we have rejected the null hypothesis, meaning the p-value must have been less than the significance level \( \alpha = 0.05 \). The observed value of the sample mean is significantly different from the hypothesized population mean of 25.
03

Declare the Final Conclusion

Since we have rejected the null hypothesis at the 0.05 significance level, the observed difference between the hypothesized population mean and the observed sample mean is 'statistically significant'. This means that the probability that this observed difference occurred by chance, given that the null hypothesis is true, is less than 5%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, often denoted as \( H_0 \), is a statement used in statistics that suggests there is no effect or no difference in a particular experiment or observation. It's the starting point for statistical testing. In the context of hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis serves as a baseline to compare your findings against.

  • Formulation: It typically posits that the sample data comes from a population where the parameter under study (like a mean, difference, or proportion) equals a specific value.
  • Purpose: The key purpose of the null hypothesis is to be tested and possibly rejected, thereby supporting the alternative hypothesis.
In our exercise, the null hypothesis \( H_0 \) states that the population mean \( \mu \) is equal to 25. The aim of testing is to determine if there is enough statistical evidence to reject \( H_0 \). When we say "reject the null hypothesis," we are suggesting that the observed data significantly deviate from what was expected under \( H_0 \).
If the outcome of the test leads to rejecting this hypothesis, it suggests that any observed difference is unlikely due to random chance alone.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, symbolized as \( H_1 \) or \( H_a \), is the statement you aim to support or prove in an experiment. It's essentially the opposite of the null hypothesis, promoting a different scenario where there is an effect or a difference.

  • Relationship: It exists in contrast to the null hypothesis and is accepted if there's sufficient evidence to reject \( H_0 \).
  • Types: Alternative hypotheses can be one-tailed or two-tailed, depending on the nature of the test.
In the case provided, the alternative hypothesis \( H_1 \) posits that the mean \( \mu \) is not equal to 25, indicating any deviation from 25 is what \( H_1 \) seeks to confirm. By proving \( H_1 \), researchers demonstrate that the data provides sufficient evidence that the population mean differs significantly from 25.
Nevertheless, acceptance of the alternative suggests the observed effect is real and noteworthy, not just a product of random fluctuations.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is about assessing whether the results of an experiment or study are likely genuine or if they could have occurred by random chance. It's a decision-making tool in hypothesis testing.

  • Measure: Determined using a p-value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed results, or more extreme, assuming the null hypothesis is true.
  • Interpretation: A result is deemed statistically significant if the p-value is less than the predetermined significance level \( \alpha \).
In this exercise, since the null hypothesis was rejected, it implies the p-value was less than the \( \alpha = 0.05 \) threshold. This assures the difference between the hypothesized and observed mean is statistically significant. Acknowledging statistical significance means valuing the results as meaningful, suggesting they aren't likely due to random chance, and believing there's a true effect in the data.
Significance Level
The significance level, often represented by \( \alpha \), is the criterion used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It dictates the threshold for determining statistical significance.

  • Common Values: Often set at 0.05, 0.01, or 0.10, depending on the field of study and the stakes of the hypothesis test.
  • Decision Rule: If the p-value is less than \( \alpha \), we reject \( H_0 \) and consider the results significant.
In the provided scenario, the significance level is \( \alpha = 0.05 \), meaning we're willing to accept a 5% risk of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis. This threshold helps researchers decide if the evidence against \( H_0 \) is strong enough to embrace the alternative hypothesis.
The chosen \( \alpha \) reflects the probability of a Type I error, which is wrongly rejecting a true null hypothesis. It's crucial for balancing the risk of error with the need for significant scientific discovery.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Alpha Airline claims that only \(15 \%\) of its flights arrive more than 10 minutes late. Let \(p\) be the proportion of all of Alpha's flights that arrive more than 10 minutes late. Consider the hypothesis test $$ H_{0}: p \leq .15 \text { versus } H_{1}: p>.15 $$ Suppose we take a random sample of 50 flights by Alpha Airline and agree to reject \(H_{0}\) if 9 or more of them arrive late. Find the significance level for this test.

According to an article in Forbes magazine of April 3, 2014 , \(57 \%\) of students said that they did not attend the college of their first choice due to financial concerns (www.forbes.com). In a recent poll of 1600 students, 864 said that they did not attend the college of their first choice due to financial concerns. Using a \(1 \%\) significance level. perform a test of hypothesis to determine whether the current percentage of students who did not attend the college of their first choice due to financial concerns is lower than \(57 \%\). Use both the \(p\) -value and the critical-value approaches.

According to a survey by the College Board, undergraduate students at private nonprofit four-year colleges spent an average of \(\$ 1244\) on books and supplies in \(2014-2015\) (www.collegeboard.org). A recent random sample of 200 undergraduate college students from a large private nonprofit four-year college showed that they spent an average of \(\$ 1204\) on books and supplies during the last academic year. Assume that the standard deviation of annual expenditures on books and supplies by all such students at this college is \(\$ 200\). a. Find the \(p\) -value for the test of hypothesis with the alternative hypothesis that the annual mean expenditure by all such students at this college is less than \(\$ 1244\). Based on this \(p\) -value, would you reject the null hypothesis if the significance level is \(.025\) ? b. Test the hypothesis of part a using the critical-value approach and \(\alpha=.025 .\) Would you reject the null hypothesis? Explain.

A random sample of 500 observations produced a sample proportion equal to \(.38\). Find the critical and observed values of \(z\) for each of the following tests of hypotheses using \(\alpha=.05\). a. \(H_{0}=p=.30\) versus \(H_{1}: p>.30\) b. \(H_{0^{-}} p=.30\) versus \(\quad H_{1}: p \neq .30\)

For each of the following examples of tests of hypotheses about \(\mu\), show the rejection and nonrejection regions on the sampling distribution of the sample mean assuming that it is normal. a. A two-tailed test with \(\alpha=.05\) and \(n=40\) b. A left-tailed test with \(\alpha=.01\) and \(n=20\) c. A right-tailed test with \(\alpha=.02\) and \(n=55\)

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