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According to a Gallup poll conducted April \(3-6,2014,21 \%\) of Americans aged 18 to 29 said that college loans and/or expenses were the top financial problem facing their families. Suppose that this poll was based on a random sample of 1450 Americans aged 18 to \(29 .\) a, What is the point estimate of the corresponding population proportion? b. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of all Americans aged 18 to 29 who will say that college loans and/or expenses were the top financial problem facing their families. What is the margin of error for this estimate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The point estimate of the population proportion is 0.21 or 21%. b. The 95% confidence interval and margin of error are based on the computations done using the given formulas and values.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the point estimate

The point estimate of the corresponding population proportion is simply the sample proportion. In this case, according to the poll, 21% of Americans aged 18 to 29 consider college loans and/or expenses as their family's top financial problem. So the point estimate is \(0.21\) or \(21%.\)
02

Construct confidence interval and calculate margin of error

First, you need to understand that a 95% confidence interval can be calculated using the following formula: \( \hat{p} \pm Z_{\alpha/2}*\sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})/n} \) where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, \( n \) is the sample size, and \( Z_{\alpha/2} \) is the Z-score (critical value) corresponding to a 95% confidence level. For a 95% confidence level, \( Z_{\alpha/2} = 1.96 .\) Here \(\hat{p}=0.21,n=1450\), then find the standard error of the proportion and construct the 95% confidence interval. The margin of error for this estimate is the value subtracted or added to the point estimate which is \(Z_{\alpha/2}*\sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})/n}\).
03

Final computation

Calculate the margin of error using the above formula and then subtract this value from the point estimate to get the lower bound of the confidence interval and add to get the upper bound. Share these results to complete the solution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
A population proportion represents the fraction or percentage of the entire population that has a certain characteristic. In the context of a survey, it's important because it reflects what you would expect to find if you were able to ask every single member of the population about the issue at hand. In this exercise, we are interested in finding the population proportion of Americans aged 18 to 29 who view college loans and expenses as their primary financial problem. If we were able to survey every person in this age group, the percentage that feels this way is our population proportion. Understanding the population proportion is essential because it gives us a big-picture view of the issue within the entire population. While we often can't find the true population proportion directly due to resource constraints, we can estimate it using statistical techniques based on data from a sample.
Sample Proportion
The sample proportion is a key concept as it serves as an estimate for the population proportion. It is calculated by dividing the number of individuals in the sample that have the characteristic of interest by the total number of individuals in the sample. In the Gallup poll that surveyed Americans aged 18 to 29 about their financial concerns, 21% expressed that college loans and/or expenses were of primary concern. This 21%, or 0.21 in decimal form, is the sample proportion and is used to estimate the larger population proportion. Since it's often impractical to survey an entire population, the sample proportion provides a useful snapshot that informs us about the population's likely views, with some level of uncertainty due to the limited sample size.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is a vital concept in statistics that reflects the extent to which the sample proportion is expected to differ from the true population proportion. It is influenced by the sample size and the level of confidence you wish to have in the results of your sample. The formula to calculate the margin of error is:\[Z_{\alpha/2} \times \sqrt{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})/n}.\]In this expression, \(\hat{p}\) represents the sample proportion, \(n\) is the sample size, and \(Z_{\alpha/2}\) is the Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level. The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error, which leads to more precise estimates of the population proportion. Similarly, the more confidence you wish to have, the larger the margin of error will be.The margin of error is critical because it tells us how close our sample proportion is to the true population proportion, within a given level of confidence. In the exercise, it's used to construct a confidence interval, which gives a range in which we expect the true population proportion to fall.
Z-Score
A Z-score is a statistical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values measured in terms of standard deviations. In the context of confidence intervals, the Z-score determines how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. For confidence intervals, particularly in large samples, we use a Z-score to set the desired level of confidence. For instance, in a 95% confidence interval, the Z-score is approximately 1.96. This means that if you were to draw many samples, 95% of them would contain the population proportion within the calculated interval. The Z-score is pivotal for the accuracy of the interval. The higher the confidence level desired, the higher the Z-score will become, increasing the interval's range. Therefore, the Z-score is integral to constructing confidence intervals, as it directly influences the spread of the margin of error around the sample proportion. This allows researchers to make statistically supported inferences about a population from a sample with a known degree of uncertainty.

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