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The mean time taken to design a house plan by 40 architects was found to be 23 hours with a standard deviation of \(3.75\) hours. a. Construct a \(98 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu\). b. Suppose the confidence interval obtained in part a is too wide. How can the width of this interval be reduced? Describe all possible alternatives. Which alternative is the best and why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 98% confidence interval for the population mean time taken to design a house plan by architects is given by \(\mu = 23 \pm (2.33 * SE)\), where SE is the standard error calculated as \(\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\). b. The width of the confidence interval can be lessened either by decreasing the confidence level, increasing the sample size, or lowering the variability in the data. The most ideal way to decrease the width of the confidence interval would be by increasing the sample size as it permits the same level of confidence while allowing for a narrower interval.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the standard error

The first step in this process is to calculate the standard error, which gives an estimate of the standard deviation of the sampling distribution. The formula for calculating the standard error (SE) is \(SE = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\), where \(s\) is the standard deviation of the sample, and \(n\) is the sample size. Here, \(s = 3.75\) hours, and \(n = 40\). Therefore, \[SE = \frac{3.75}{\sqrt{40}} \]
02

Find the Z-value for 98% confidence interval

The z-value for any given confidence level can be found from the standard normal distribution table or from a Z calculator. For a 98% confidence interval, the z-value is approximately 2.33, since it includes 98% of the data in a standard normal distribution, leaving 1% in each tail of the distribution.
03

Calculate the confidence interval

The confidence interval is calculated as \(\mu = x \pm (Z * SE)\) where \(x\) is the sample mean, \(Z\) is the Z-value from the previous step, and \(SE\) is the standard error calculated in Step 1. Here, \(\mu = 23 \pm (2.33 * SE)\). The lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval are calculated by carrying out the plus and minus operations respectively.
04

Discuss ways to reduce the width of the confidence interval

The width of the confidence interval could be lessened in several ways: (1) Decrease the confidence level: A lower confidence level will result in a lower z-value, which would decrease the width of the confidence interval. However, this would also decrease the certainty about whether the true population parameter lies within the interval. (2) Increase the sample size: If the sample size is increased, it will decrease the standard error and hence, the width of the confidence interval will decrease. This is the preferred method because it keeps the confidence level the same while allowing for a narrower interval. (3) Lower the variability: If there is a way to control or eliminate the sources of variability in the sample data, this would lower the standard deviation (and hence the standard error) leading to a narrower confidence interval.
05

Choose the best alternative to lessen the width of the confidence interval

The best option would be to increase the sample size, as this would maintain the same level of confidence while lessening the width of the confidence interval. Lowering the variability could also be effective, but this might not be possible depending on the nature of the data. The method that sollicit decreasing the confidence level is less ideal since it forfeits some certainty in the process.

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