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A bank manager wants to know the mean amount of mortgage paid per month by homeowners in an area. A random sample of 120 homeowners selected from this area showed that they pay an average of \(\$ 1575\) per month for their mortgages. The population standard deviation of all such mortgages is \(\$ 215\). a. Find a \(97 \%\) confidence interval for the mean amount of mortgage paid per month by all homeowners in this area. b. Suppose the confidence interval obtained in part a is too wide. How can the width of this interval be reduced? Discuss all possible alternatives. Which alternative is the best?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 97% confidence interval is calculated using the given formula and details. Possible ways to reduce the width of the confidence interval include reducing the confidence level, increasing the sample size, or reducing the population standard deviation. Increasing the sample size is usually considered the most convenient method, as it doesn't compromise confidence level and can improve sample mean accuracy.

Step by step solution

01

Title

In order to find the 97% confidence interval for the mean amount monthly mortgage paid by homeowners, use the formula for a confidence interval.
02

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The formula is \(x̄ ± Z \(\frac{σ}{√n}),\). Here, \(x̄\) is the sample mean, \(Z\) is the Z-value from the Z-distribution table that corresponds to the desired confidence level, \(σ\) is the population standard deviation, and \(n\) is the sample size.
03

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Firstly, plug the given values into the formula: \(x̄ = 1575, Z ≈ 2.33,\(Z-value corresponding to the 97% confidence level based on Z-table), \(σ = 215, n = 120.\). Now we can calculate the confidence interval.
04

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The confidence interval then becomes 1575 ± 2.33*\( \(\frac{215}{\sqrt{120}}\), this calculation will yield a result for the confidence interval.
05

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To reduce the width of the confidence interval, you can reduce the level of confidence (this makes the Z-value smaller, thus reducing the interval), increase the sample size (makes the sample mean more precise), or attempt to reduce the population standard deviation (if possible). The best method would depend on specific circumstances.
06

Title

Increasing the sample size is generally the most favored method as this improves the accuracy of the sample mean without altering the confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
The sample size is a crucial component in statistical analysis, especially when determining confidence intervals. In this example, the bank manager used a sample size of 120 homeowners to estimate the average monthly mortgage paid.

A larger sample size generally leads to more accurate and reliable results. This is because a bigger sample provides more data points and better coverage of the population.

One important aspect is that increasing the sample size reduces the margin of error. This is particularly beneficial when the confidence interval is too wide. By increasing the sample size, the width of the confidence interval decreases, providing a more precise estimation of the mean.

While increasing sample size is beneficial, it is also crucial to consider the cost and feasibility involved. Gathering more data can require more resources and time.
Population Standard Deviation
Population standard deviation, denoted as \( \sigma \), represents the dispersion of a set of values from the mean in the entire population. In our given exercise, the population standard deviation of the mortgage payments is $215.

It serves as an input in calculating the confidence interval. The formula for the confidence interval uses not just the standard deviation but also the sample size.

A smaller standard deviation indicates that the data points tend to be very close to the mean, while a larger standard deviation shows a wide range of values.
  • If you can reduce the population standard deviation, it will automatically narrow the confidence interval. However, in most cases, the population standard deviation is fixed and beyond control, especially when dealing with a large population.
Understanding standard deviation helps in interpreting how much variation exists within the population data.
Z-distribution
The Z-distribution is a key concept when calculating confidence intervals. It's a statistical distribution that represents how a set of standardized values relate to the mean in a normal distribution.

The Z-value is derived from the Z-distribution table. It corresponds to the desired confidence level. For a 97% confidence level, the Z-value is approximately 2.33.

This value helps determine the margin of error in the confidence interval formula. The formula to compute the confidence interval is: \( \bar{x} \pm Z \left( \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \right)\), where \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean, \( \sigma \) is the population standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size.

Understanding the Z-distribution is essential for interpreting how much confidence you can have in your estimates of the population parameters.
Confidence Level
The confidence level represents how certain you are that the true population parameter lies within the calculated confidence interval. In this exercise, a 97% confidence level is used, indicating a very high degree of confidence in the results.

The confidence level affects the width of the confidence interval through the Z-value. A higher confidence level results in a wider interval because you want to capture the true population mean with higher certainty.
  • To narrow the confidence interval, you could lower the confidence level, but this comes at the cost of being less sure that the interval contains the true mean.
  • Selecting the right confidence level depends on the context of the decision being made and the acceptable level of risk.
Confidence levels are crucial for quantifying the reliability of your estimation. It helps in decision-making processes, especially when you need to balance precision with certainty.

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