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91Ó°ÊÓ

Define the following two events for two tosses of a coin: \(A=\) at least one head is obtained \(B=\) two tails are obtained a. Are \(A\) and \(B\) mutually exclusive events? Are they independent? Explain why or why not. b. Are \(A\) and \(B\) complementary events? If yes, first calculate the probability of \(B\) and then calculate the probability of \(A\) using the complementary event rule.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Events A and B are mutually exclusive, but they are not independent or complementary. The probability of Event B is \(1/4\), and the probability of Event A is \(3/4\).

Step by step solution

01

Mutual Exclusivity and Independence

Mutual exclusive events cannot occur at the same time. So, if Event A is happening then Event B should not happen and vice versa. For the events to be independent, the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of another. Let's examine these for the given Events A and B. There are four possible outcomes when tossing a coin twice: {HH, HT, TH, TT}. Event A happens if at least one head is obtained. So, the favorable outcomes for Event A are {HH, HT, TH}. Event B happens if two tails are obtained. So, the only favorable outcome for Event B is {TT}. Here, we can clearly see that if Event A occurs, Event B does not occur and vice versa. So, these events are mutually exclusive. However, they are not independent because if we know that Event A has happened, Event B cannot happen and vice versa.
02

Complementary Events

Complement of an event B, denoted as \(B'\), is the event that B does not occur. Events A and B are complementary if when one event happens, the other does not happen and the sum of their probabilities is 1. In this case, A and B are not complementary because there is one case (HH) when both A and B do not happen. Therefore, Event A is not the complement of Event B and vice versa.
03

Calculating Probabilities

Even if it's determined that A and B are not complementary, we could still calculate probabilities. If they were complementary, we could use the rule that \(P(A) = 1 - P(B)\). Yet this is not the case here. Probabilities for Events A and B can also be calculated independently. The probability of an outcome is calculated as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes and the total number of outcomes. There are 4 possible outcomes when tossing a coin twice: {HH, HT, TH, TT}. So, \(P(B) = \frac{1}{4}\) because only one outcome (TT) is favorable for Event B. Since Events A and B are not complementary, we do not use the complementary rule. Again, we count the favorable outcomes for Event A: {HH, HT, TH}. So, \(P(A) = \frac{3}{4}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
Independent events in probability are scenarios where the result of one event does not influence or change the result of another. To determine if events are independent, check if knowing the outcome of one event gives no information about the outcome of the other.
For example, let's take the events from the coin toss exercise. Event A is getting at least one head in two tosses, and Event B is getting two tails. These events are not independent. This is because if you know event A occurred (you have at least one head), event B cannot occur as it requires both coin tosses to be tails.
In essence, two events are independent if and only if the probability of both happening is the product of their individual probabilities:
  • \(P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)\)
If this condition does not hold, then the events are dependent, as in our example.
Complementary Events
Complementary events are a pair of outcomes where one outcome or event happening means the other cannot happen. When summed, their probabilities equal 1. One classic example is the chance of rain versus no rain on a specific day.
In the given exercise, we have events A and B from a coin toss. Event A is getting at least one head, while event B is getting two tails. Importantly, these are not complementary events. A complementary event would mean that the probability of event A happening plus the probability of event B happening equals 1.
Since there is an outcome (HH) where neither event A nor event B occurs, these events don't fit the definition of complementary events. Therefore, we can't use the formula
  • \(P(A) = 1 - P(B)\)
for these events.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probabilities involves straightforward mathematics. It requires knowing the number of favorable outcomes and the total outcomes possible. For coin tosses, each toss is independent, but the total outcome space remains four combinations: {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
Here are the step-by-step calculations for the example:- **Event B (Two tails):** There's only one outcome where both tosses result in tails, TT. Therefore, the probability of event B is:
  • \(P(B) = \frac{1}{4}\)
- **Event A (At least one head):** This can occur in three out of the four possible outcomes: HH, HT, and TH. Therefore, the probability of event A is:
  • \(P(A) = \frac{3}{4}\)
Unlike complementary events, we calculate these probabilities separately, considering all possible outcomes for each event.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

How is the addition rule of probability for two mutually exclusive events different from the rule for two events that are not mutually exclusive?

Given that \(A, B\), and \(C\) are three independent events, find their joint probability for the following. a. \(P(A)=.81, \quad P(B)=.49\), and \(P(C)=.36\) b. \(P(A)=.02, \quad P(B)=.03, \quad\) and \(\quad P(C)=.05\)

In a group of adults, some own iPads, and others do not. Two adults are randomly selected from this group. List all the outcomes included in each of the following events. Indicate which are simple and which are compound events. a. One person owns an iPad and the other does not. b. At least one person owns an iPad. c. Not more than one person owns an iPad. d. The first person owns an iPad and the second does not.

A thief has stolen Roger's automatic teller machine (ATM) card. The card has a four-digit personal identification number (PIN). The thief knows that the first two digits are 3 and 5 , but he does not know the last two digits. Thus, the PIN could be any number from 3500 to \(3599 .\) To protect the customer, the automatic teller machine will not allow more than three unsuccessful attempts to enter the PIN. After the third wrong PIN, the machine keeps the card and allows no further attempts. a. What is the probability that the thief will find the correct PIN within three tries? (Assume that the thief will not try the same wrong PIN twice.) b. If the thief knew that the first two digits were 3 and 5 and that the third digit was either 1 or 7 , what is the probability of the thief guessing the correct PIN in three attempts?

Briefly explain for what kind of experiments we use the classical approach to calculate probabilities of events and for what kind of experiments we use the relative frequency approach.

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