/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 124 The U.S. Senate just passed a bi... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The U.S. Senate just passed a bill by a vote of \(55-45\) (with all 100 senators voting). A student who took an elementary statistics course last semester says, "We can use these data to make a confidence interval about \(p\). We have \(n=100\) and \(\hat{p}=55 / 100=.55\)." Hence, according to him, a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\) is $$ \hat{p} \pm z \sigma_{\hat{p}}=.55 \pm 1.96 \sqrt{\frac{(.55)(.45)}{100}}=.55 \pm .098=.452 \text { to } .648 $$ Does this make sense? If not, what is wrong with the student's reasoning?

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, it does not make sense to calculate a confidence interval in this scenario because the prerequisite of random sampling is not met. Even though the math is correct, the concept itself was misapplied.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the concept of confidence interval

A confidence interval provides an estimated range of values which is likely to include an unknown population parameter, in this case the population proportion \( p \). The width of the confidence interval provides us with an idea of how uncertain we are about the unknown parameter. The confidence level \( z \) determines how wide the confidence interval will be.
02

Evaluate the student's reasoning

The student used the equation for a confidence interval: \( \hat{p} \pm z . \sigma_{\hat{p}} \), and calculated correctly based on the vote results. However, this reasoning assumes that the Senate's vote results represent a random sampling from a population, which isn't the case. A confidence interval is based on the concept of repeated sampling from a population. In reality, the Senate's vote results aren't a random sample, they’re the results from all members in the Senate.
03

Conclude the reasoning review

Given that the Senate's vote results are not a random sampling, it would not be appropriate to apply the concept of a confidence interval in this context. Even though the confidence interval was computed correctly, the student’s reasoning is flawed because the prerequisite of random sampling is not met.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
Population proportion is the ratio of members in a population that have a particular attribute. In statistics, population proportion is often represented as \( p \). For instance, if we are interested in the proportion of senators who voted for a bill, then in a population where there were 100 senators and 55 voted for the bill, the population proportion is given by \( p = \frac{55}{100} = 0.55 \).

A fundamental aspect of population proportion is that it is used to estimate the characteristics of a larger population when conducting surveys or experiments. However, this is only valid when the data comes from a random sample. In our exercise, since all 100 senators voted, we are not dealing with a sample but rather the entire population, thus calculating the population proportion directly without the need for further statistical inference.
Random Sampling
Random sampling is a key concept in statistics that involves selecting a subset from a larger population. This technique ensures that every individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected.

The primary purpose of random sampling is to obtain a representative sample that reflects the population. By doing so, any analysis performed on the sample can be generalized to the entire population within a known degree of accuracy.

In the exercise regarding the senators' vote, it is important to note that the votes did not come from a random sample. All 100 senators' votes were recorded, which means that a confidence interval to estimate a population proportion is not valid in this specific scenario because random sampling assumptions are crucial for such inference.
Statistic Concepts
Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing are foundational statistical concepts used to infer the characteristics of a population based on sample data. A confidence interval, for example, quantifies the uncertainty of an estimated parameter, allowing statisticians to gauge the range within which the true population parameter lies with a certain level of confidence, usually 95%.

In constructing a confidence interval for population proportion, you calculate it as follows: \[ \hat{p} \pm z \sigma_{\hat{p}} \] where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, \( z \) is the z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level, and \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \) is the standard error.

It is crucial to remember that these statistical concepts assume random samples, and when these conditions aren't met, as in the exercise provided, utilizing these methods would lead to incorrect conclusions.
Sampling Assumptions
Sampling assumptions are vital in ensuring the validity of statistical inference. For confidence intervals to be applicable, several assumptions must be met: the sampling method must be random, the samples should be independent, and the population should be sufficiently large.

The exercise with the Senate voting example showcases a situation where these assumptions are not met. Every senator voted, leaving no room for randomness. This disparity points out one common mistake when students attempt to apply confidence intervals in such real-world non-random situations.

Making sure the assumptions align with the statistical method used is crucial. Without this, conclusions drawn could be misleading, which could affect decision-making based on statistical analysis.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A researcher wanted to know the percentage of judges who are in favor of the death penalty. He took a random sample of 15 judges and asked them whether or not they favor the death penalty. The responses of these judges are given here. \(\begin{array}{lllllll}\text { Yes } & \text { No } & \text { Yes } & \text { Yes } & \text { No } & \text { No } & \text { No } & \text { Yes } \\\ \text { Yes } & \text { No } & \text { Yes } & \text { Yes } & \text { Yes } & \text { No } & \text { Yes }\end{array}\) a. What is the point estimate of the population proportion? b. Make a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the percentage of all judges who are in favor of the death penalty.

Suppose, for a sample selected from a population, \(\bar{x}=25.5\) and \(s=4.9\). a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) assuming \(n=47\). b. Construct a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) assuming \(n=47\). Is the width of the \(99 \%\) confidence interval larger than the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval calculated in part a? If yes, explain why. c. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) assuming \(n=32 .\) Is the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) with \(n=32\) larger than the width of the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) with \(n=47\) calculated in part a? If so, why? Explain.

A random sample of 20 acres gave a mean yield of wheat equal to \(41.2\) bushels per acre with a standard deviation of 3 bushels. Assuming that the yield of wheat per acre is normally distributed, construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu\).

What are the parameters of a normal distribution and a \(t\) distribution? Explain.

An entertainment company is in the planning stages of producing a new computer-animated movie for national release, so they need to determine the production time (labor-hours necessary) to produce the movie. The mean production time for a random sample of 14 big-screen computer-animated movies is found to be 53,550 labor-hours. Suppose that the population standard deviation is known to be 7462 laborhours and the distribution of production times is normal. a. Construct a \(98 \%\) confidence interval for the mean production time to produce a big-screen computer-animated movie. b. Explain why we need to make the confidence interval. Why is it not correct to say that the average production time needed to produce all big-screen computer-animated movies is 53,550 labor-hours?

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