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According to the Alzheimer's Association (www.alz.org/documents_custom/2011_Facts_Figures Fact_Sheet.pdf), \(3.7 \%\) of Americans with Alzheimer's disease were younger than the age of 65 years in 2011 (which means that they were diagnosed with early onset of Alzheimer's). Suppose that currently \(3.7 \%\) of Americans with Alzheimer's disease are younger than the age of 65 years. Suppose that two Americans with Alzheimer's disease are selected at random. Let \(x\) denote the number in this sample of two Americans with Alzheimer's disease who are younger than the age of 65 years. Construct the probability distribution table of \(x\). Draw a tree diagram for this problem.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability distribution is as follows: \(P(X = 0)\) is approximately 0.927, \(P(X = 1)\) is approximately 0.071, and \(P(X = 2)\) is approximately 0.0013.

Step by step solution

01

Setup the Problem

Define the two outcomes: A person with Alzheimer's is younger than 65 years (success) and a person with Alzheimer's is 65 years or older (failure). The success probability \(p\) is given as \(3.7\%\), or \(0.037\) in decimal form, and the failure probability \(q\) is \(1-p = 1 - 0.037 = 0.963\). Let the random variable \(X\) denote the number of selected Americans with Alzheimer's disease who are younger than age 65.
02

Construct the Probability Distribution Table

There are three possibilities, \(x\) can be 0, 1, or 2. We use the binomial probability formula to calculate the probability of each outcome: \n- \(P(X = 0) = \binom{2}{0} * (0.037)^0 * (0.963)^2 = 0.927\), \n- \(P(X = 1) = \binom{2}{1} * (0.037)^1 * (0.963)^1 = 0.071\), \n- \(P(X = 2) = \binom{2}{2} * (0.037)^2 * (0.963)^0 = 0.0013\), where \(\binom{n}{k}\) denotes the binomial coefficient, expressing the number of ways to choose \(k\) successes out of \(n\) trials.
03

Draw the Probability Tree Diagram

To draw a probability tree diagram, start with a branch for each of the two random Americans. For each American, draw two branches for the outcomes 'younger than 65' and '65 or older', tag these with their probabilities (0.037 and 0.963 respectively). Multiply along the branches to get the probability for each combination.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Distribution
A probability distribution in statistics is a table or an equation that links each outcome of a statistical experiment to its probability of occurrence. In the context of a binomial distribution, the probability distribution expresses the likelihood of each possible outcome.
In our example, we're dealing with two individuals, and we're interested in how many of them could potentially be under 65 given their Alzheimer's diagnosis. This gives us three probable scenarios:
  • Neither of the two is under 65,
  • Exactly one is under 65,
  • Both are under 65.
The probabilities for these outcomes were computed using the binomial formula, resulting in probabilities of approximately 0.927, 0.071, and 0.0013, respectively. By tabulating these results, we create a probability distribution table. This empowers us to quickly understand and visualize the probabilities associated with each number of younger individuals in our pair.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a vital part of the binomial probability formula, represented as \( \binom{n}{k} \). It symbolizes the number of different ways to succeed 'k' times out of 'n' trials. To compute this, you use the formula:
\[\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\]In our exercise, 'n' is 2 because we are evaluating two Americans, and 'k' can be 0, 1, or 2, representing the number of individuals who are under 65.
The binomial coefficients are calculated for each value of 'k':
  • \( \binom{2}{0} = 1 \)
  • \( \binom{2}{1} = 2 \)
  • \( \binom{2}{2} = 1 \)
Understanding the binomial coefficient helps clarify how probabilities are partitioned among various outcomes in the binomial distribution, based on combinatorial selections.
Probability Tree Diagram
A probability tree diagram is a graphical representation that showcases all possible outcomes of a sequence of events, along with their probabilities. It helps visualize and organize the different outcomes and combinations that might arise.
To represent our Alzheimer's case:
  • Start with a main branch representing the first individual.
  • Create two branches for 'younger than 65' and '65 or older', attaching the probabilities of 0.037 and 0.963 respectively.
  • For each of these branches, further split into two branches for the second individual, again marking probabilities accordingly.
Multiplying along the branches gives the overall probability for each unique outcome pair, like both under 65 or neither. Thus, the tree helps recreate the binomial distribution visually.
Random Variable
A random variable is a variable that represents a possible outcome of a random event. It assigns a numerical value to each outcome of a statistical experiment.
In this scenario, our random variable \( X \) symbolizes the number of people out of two who are younger than 65 and have Alzheimer's.
  • \( X = 0 \) means neither are under 65.
  • \( X = 1 \) implies one person is under 65.
  • \( X = 2 \) indicates both individuals are younger than 65.
Random variables are an essential component in probability theory, aiding in modeling real-life situations where there are uncertain outcomes. They give us a methodological approach to quantify these uncertainties systematically.

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