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91Ó°ÊÓ

Define the following two events for two tosses of a coin: \(A=\) at least one head is obtained \(B=\) both tails are obtained a. Are \(A\) and \(B\) mutually exclusive events? Are they independent? Explain why or why not. b. Are \(A\) and \(B\) complementary events? If yes, first calculate the probability of \(B\) and then calculate the probability of \(A\) using the complementary event rule.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Events \(A\) and \(B\) are mutually exclusive as both cannot occur simultaneously in any experimental outcome. They are not independent as occurrence of one definitely influences the occurrence of the other. They are complementary events and thus cover the whole sample space. The probability of event \(B\) is 0.25 and hence, using the complementary rule, the probability of event \(A\) is 0.75.

Step by step solution

01

Analyze Mutual Exclusivity

Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time. In this context, getting at least one head (event \(A\)) and getting two tails (event \(B\)) cannot happen together. Therefore, events \(A\) and \(B\) are mutually exclusive.
02

Analyze Independence

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the likelihood of the occurrence of the other. In this context, the occurrence of event \(A\) (getting at least one head) clearly affects the likelihood of event \(B\) (getting two tails) and vice versa. Thus, events \(A\) and \(B\) are not independent.
03

Analyze Complementarity

Two events are complementary if the occurrence of one means the other cannot occur, and together they encompass the entire sample space. In this case, event \(A\) (getting at least one head) does indeed mean that event \(B\) (getting two tails) cannot occur and vice versa. Additionally, either event \(A\) or event \(B\) can occur in any experimental outcomes (HH, HT, TH, TT) of the given context, they are complementary. So, events \(A\) and \(B\) are complementary.
04

Calculate the Probability of Event B

The probability of event \(B\) (getting two tails) can be calculated by determining the number of successful outcomes over the total number of possible outcomes. In this case, there is 1 favorable outcome (TT) out of a total of 4 possible outcomes (HH, HT, TH, TT). Thus, the probability of event \(B\) is \(1/4\) or 0.25.
05

Calculate the Probability of Event A using the Complementary Event Rule

The complementary event rule states that the probability of an event occurring is 1 minus the probability of its complementary event. As proved earlier, events \(A\) and \(B\) are complementary. Thus, the probability of \(A\) (getting at least one head) equals 1 minus the probability of event \(B\) (getting two tails). Therefore, the probability of \(A\) is \(1 - 0.25\), or 0.75.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mutually Exclusive Events
In the realm of probability, understanding mutually exclusive events is crucial. These are events that cannot occur simultaneously. Think of them as opposite outcomes. For example, if you flip a coin, getting a head and a tail in the same toss is impossible. In the given exercise, we look at two coin tosses.

Event \(A\) is defined as getting at least one head, which can occur through the outcomes: \(HH, HT,\) or \(TH\). On the other hand, event \(B\) is obtaining two tails, represented as \(TT\). These two outcomes cannot happen at the same time, confirming they are mutually exclusive.

Understanding mutually exclusive events helps in simplifying probability calculations. If events are mutually exclusive, the probability of either occurring can be confidently added together, as you will never double-count the outcomes. This concept is foundational in probability theory.
Independent Events
Events are considered independent when the occurrence of one does not influence or affect the probability of the other. A classic example is flipping a coin; the result of one flip doesn't impact the result of the next. For events to be independent, their joint probability must equal the product of their probabilities.

In our exercise, event \(A\) (getting at least one head) and event \(B\) (getting two tails) are not independent. Why? Because when one occurs, it directly affects the probability of the other. If you have two tails, you're guaranteed not to have a head. Thus, the presence or absence of one directly impacts the other's probability.

Understanding whether events are independent helps in establishing the correct approach to calculating probabilities. When you assume independence incorrectly, your overall probability calculations can end up flawed.
Complementary Events
Complementary events together make up the entire sample space. This means if one event occurs, the other cannot. In probability, these events add up to a probability of 1, complementing each other perfectly.

In the coin toss exercise, event \(A\) and event \(B\) are complementary. If you have at least one head, you can't have both tails, and vice versa. The outcomes cover all possibilities— \(HH, HT, TH,\) and \(TT\)—ensuring a complete range of outcomes.

This complementary nature simplifies probability calculations. When two events are complementary, finding the probability of one can be done by subtracting the probability of the other from 1. It provides an intuitive shortcut in evaluating probabilities and ensures you cover all eventualities.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation involves determining how likely an event is to occur within a defined set of possibilities. In essence, it's the chance of a particular outcome happening. Having a structured formula allows us to calculate this accurately.

For our exercise:
  • Event \(B\) (two tails) has only one favorable outcome, \(TT\), out of four possible outcomes: \(HH, HT, TH,\) and \(TT\). This gives us a probability of \(\frac{1}{4}\).
  • Event \(A\) (at least one head) can be easily calculated using the complementary event rule. Since \(A\) and \(B\) are complementary, the probability of \(A\) is \(1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4}\).

Probability calculations, especially when using complementary events, offer elegant approaches to solving complex problems. By following clear steps, you ensure accurate and efficient results, enhancing your understanding of probability theory.

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