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91Ó°ÊÓ

According to an article in The Sacramento Bee (www.sacbee.com/2011/08/04/3816872/medicareprescription-premiums.html), approximately \(10 \%\) of Medicare beneficiaries lack a prescription drug care plan. Suppose that a town in Florida has 2384 residents who are Medicare beneficiaries, and 216 of them do not have a prescription drug care plan. If one of the Medicare beneficiaries is chosen at random from this town, what is the probability that this person has a prescription drug care plan? What is the probability that this person does not have a prescription drug care plan? Do these probabilities add up to \(1.0 ?\) If yes, why? If no, why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a randomly chosen Medicare beneficiary from the town has a prescription drug care plan is approximately 0.9094, or 90.94%. The probability that this person does not have a prescription drug care plan is approximately 0.0906, or 9.06%. These probabilities do add up to 1, confirming that every Medicare beneficiary in the town either has a prescription drug care plan or does not.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the total number of Medicare beneficiaries

We know that the total number of Medicare beneficiaries in the town is 2384. This will be the denominator when calculating the probabilities.
02

Calculate the number of beneficiaries without a prescription drug care plan

We know that there are 216 beneficiaries without a prescription drug care plan. This will be the numerator when calculating the probability that a chosen beneficiary does not have a prescription drug care plan.
03

Calculate the probability that a chosen beneficiary does not have a prescription drug care plan

To calculate this probability, divide the number of beneficiaries without a prescription drug care plan (216) by the total number of beneficiaries (2384). The result is approximately \(0.0906\), or \(9.06\% \).
04

Calculate the number of beneficiaries with a prescription drug care plan

The number of beneficiaries with a prescription drug care plan can be obtained by subtracting the number of beneficiaries without a prescription drug care plan (216) from the total number of beneficiaries (2384). The result is \(2168 \).
05

Calculate the probability that a chosen beneficiary has a prescription drug care plan

To calculate this probability, divide the number of beneficiaries with a prescription drug care plan (2168) by the total number of beneficiaries (2384). The result is approximately \(0.9094 \), or \( 90.94\% \).
06

Do the probabilities add up to 1?

Adding the two probabilities calculated (0.9094 and 0.0906) gives us \(1.0 \), proving that the probabilities accurately represent the total population of Medicare beneficiaries in the town (that is, every beneficiary either has a drug care plan or does not).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Medicare
Medicare is a vital health insurance program in the United States, primarily aimed at serving older adults aged 65 and older. Additionally, it covers younger individuals with disabilities and certain diseases. Medicare helps to cover the cost of healthcare, which includes hospital stays (Part A) and medical services (Part B). However, it is important to understand that Part D deals specifically with prescription drugs.

This prescription coverage is optional and offered through private health plans approved by Medicare. Beneficiaries covered under the Medicare program can choose to have this additional plan for drug costs. It's important to note that some individuals might be without such a plan either due to choice or lack of access.

In our scenario, 10% of Medicare beneficiaries lack a prescription drug care plan, highlighting a significant gap in comprehensive healthcare coverage.
Prescription Drug Care Plan
A Prescription Drug Care Plan is a crucial supplement to basic Medicare coverage, focusing specifically on medications that beneficiaries might need. Part D of Medicare outlines these plans, which are usually provided by private insurance companies.

Those who enroll in a prescription drug plan may pay premiums, deductibles, and copayments. However, having a plan can be beneficial in managing overall health care costs by reducing the amount paid out-of-pocket for medications.
  • It covers both generic and brand-name prescription drugs.
  • Enrollees benefit from a list of covered drugs, known as a formulary.
  • The plans might change yearly, involving updates in coverage and cost.
In the given town in Florida, 2,168 Medicare beneficiaries have enrolled in this plan, ensuring they have support for medication expenses, which contrasts with those who are without, accounting for about 9.06%.
Statistics
Statistics plays a central role in understanding and interpreting data, particularly in real-world scenarios like healthcare coverage analysis. In this problem, we use statistics to determine how many individuals in a population are covered by a prescription drug care plan.

The numbers given: 2,384 total Medicare beneficiaries and 216 lacking a drug plan, set the basis for this statistical analysis:
  • Total with a plan = 2,384 - 216 = 2,168 beneficiaries.
  • Percentage without a plan = (216 / 2,384) × 100 = 9.06%.
  • Percentage with a plan = (2,168 / 2,384) × 100 = 90.94%.
By breaking down these numbers, we get a clearer picture of the town's coverage landscape, helping policymakers to understand where improvements or outreach might be needed.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is a mathematical concept that helps us measure how likely an event is to occur. This is often expressed as a number between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain), or as a percentage.

In this exercise, we're calculating the probability that a Medicare beneficiary in the town does or does not have a prescription drug care plan.
  • Probability without a plan: \[ P( ext{No Plan}) = \frac{216}{2384} \approx 0.0906 \]
  • Probability with a plan: \[ P( ext{With Plan}) = \frac{2168}{2384} \approx 0.9094 \]
  • These probabilities should add up to 1: \[ P( ext{No Plan}) + P( ext{With Plan}) = 0.0906 + 0.9094 = 1.0 \]
These calculations confirm the complementarity of the two probabilities, illustrating that every individual in this context either has or does not have a prescription drug care plan, leaving no room for ambiguity.

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