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A financial expert believes that the probability is 13 that the stock price of a specific technology company will double over the next year. Is this a case of classical, relative frequency, or subjective probability? Explain why.

Short Answer

Expert verified
This is a case of subjective probability because the financial expert's belief is based on personal judgment rather than logical or verifiable reasoning.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Probability Types

These are the three main types of probability: Classical Probability arises from equally likely outcomes. It is based on certainty or theoretical basis. Relative Frequency Probability is based on past experiences or observations and is calculated as the number of ways that the desired outcome can occur, divided by the total number of outcomes. Subjective Probability is based on personal judgment or belief, without dependence on factual or logical reasoning. It varies from person to person.
02

Apply Definitions to the Problem

The financial expert expresses a belief that there is a 1/3 chance the stock price will double. This judgment does not appear to be based on equally likely outcomes or past experiences or observations. Instead, the expert's judgment appears to be based on his personal assessment of the situation.
03

Conclusion

Given that the belief expressed by the financial expert seems to be based on personal judgment rather than factual reasoning, the situation is a case of subjective probability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Classical Probability
Classical Probability is a type of probability that is based on the assumption of equally likely outcomes. This concept is often used in situations where each outcome has the same chance of occurring. Imagine a fair six-sided die. Each number, from 1 to 6, has an equal probability of being rolled. Since there are 6 possible outcomes, the probability of rolling any specific number, for example 4, is determined by dividing 1 (the number of successful outcomes) by 6 (the total possible outcomes), giving you \[ \frac{1}{6} \]. This is where the foundation of classical probability lies:
  • It assumes all outcomes are equally likely.
  • It is theoretical and thus doesn’t rely on experimental data.
The key to identifying classical probability is looking for situations with a fixed pattern where each outcome is just as likely as the others.
Relative Frequency Probability
Relative Frequency Probability is a statistical approach that calculates probabilities based on historical data and past events. This type differs from classical probability as it isn't based solely on theory but rather on observation and experimentation.To determine relative frequency probability, divide the number of times an event has happened by the total number of observations or trials. For example, if a coin was flipped 100 times and it landed on heads 55 times, the relative frequency probability of landing on heads would be\[ \frac{55}{100} = 0.55 \], or 55%. This approach is rooted in empirical data:
  • It relies on actual recorded outcomes, not assumptions.
  • It can provide more accurate probabilities in real-world scenarios where conditions are not ideal or perfectly random.
Relative frequency probability can change as more data is collected, adjusting to reflect the most up-to-date observations.
Subjective Probability
Subjective Probability is often utilized when there is little to no data or when outcomes are not precisely known. It is based on personal judgment or beliefs about the likelihood of an event occurring. Thus, it varies greatly from individual to individual. When experts make predictions, such as a financial analyst's belief that a stock will double in price, they often rely on subjective probability. They consider a variety of factors: market conditions, trends, and other qualitative information, but ultimately, their estimate is influenced by personal insight rather than a strict mathematical model. Characteristics of subjective probability include:
  • Relying heavily on personal experience and intuition.
  • Not being uniform or consistent across different observers.
Subjective probability is highly useful in fields where decisions must be made with incomplete information and is a staple in areas requiring expert opinion.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A company is to hire two new employees. They have prepared a final list of eight candidates, all of whom are equally qualified. Of these eight candidates, five are women. If the company decides to select two persons randomly from these eight candidates, what is the probability that both of them are women? Draw a tree diagram for this problem.

Many states have a lottery game, usually called a Pick-4, in which you pick a four-digit number such as 7359 . During the lottery drawing, there are four bins, each containing balls numbered 0 through 9\. One ball is drawn from each bin to form the four-digit winning number. a. You purchase one ticket with one four-digit number. What is the probability that you will win this lottery game? b. There are many variations of this game. The primary variation allows you to win if the four digits in your number are selected in any order as long as they are the same four digits as obtained by the lottery agency. For example, if you pick four digits making the number 1265 , then you will win if \(1265,2615,5216,6521\), and so forth, are drawn. The variations of the lottery game depend on how many unique digits are in your number. Consider the following four different versions of this game. i. All four digits are unique (e.g., 1234 ) ii. Exactly one of the digits appears twice (e.g., 1223 or 9095 ) iii. Two digits each appear twice (e.g., 2121 or 5588 ) iv. One digit appears three times (e.g., 3335 or 2722 ) Find the probability that you will win this lottery in each of these four situations.

Refer to Exercise 4.48. A 2010-2011 poll conducted by Gallup (www.gallup.com/poll/148994/ Emotional-Health-Higher-Among-Older- Americans.aspx) examined the emotional health of a large number of Americans. Among other things, Gallup reported on whether people had Emotional Health Index scores of 90 or higher, which would classify them as being emotionally well-off. The report was based on a survey of 65,528 people in the age group \(35-44\) years and 91,802 people in the age group \(65-74\) years. The following table gives the results of the survey, converting percentages to frequencies. $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \hline & \text { Emotionally Well-Off } & \text { Emotionally Not Well-Off } \\\ \hline \text { 35-44 Age group } & 16,016 & 49,512 \\ \text { 65-74 Age group } & 32,583 & 59,219 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Suppose that one person is selected at random from this sample of 157,330 Americans. Find the following probabilities. i. \(P(35-44\) age group and emotionally not well-off \()\) ii. \(P(\) emotionally well-off and \(65-74\) age group \()\) b. Find the joint probability of the events \(35-44\) age group and \(65-74\) age group. Is this probability zero? Explain why or why not.

Find the joint probability of \(A\) and \(B\) for the following. a. \(P(B)=.66\) and \(P(A \mid B)=.91\) b. \(P(A)=.12\) and \(P(B \mid A)=.07\)

A random sample of 400 college students was asked if college athletes should be paid. The following table gives a two-way classification of the responses. $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \hline & \text { Should Be Paid } & \text { Should Not Be Paid } \\ \hline \text { Student athlete } & 90 & 10 \\ \text { Student nonathlete } & 210 & 90 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. If one student is randomly selected from these 400 students, find the probability that this student i. is in favor of paying college athletes ii. favors paying college athletes given that the student selected is a nonathlete iii. is an athlete and favors paying student athletes iv. is a nonathlete \(o r\) is against paying student athletes b. Are the events "student athlete" and "should be paid" independent? Are they mutually exclusive? Explain why or why not.

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