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91Ó°ÊÓ

Fifty-six people have signed up for a karaoke contest at a local nightclub. Of them, 19 sang in a band, chorus, or choir while in high school and 37 did not. Suppose one contestant is chosen at random. Consider the following two events: The selected contestant sang in a band, chorus, or choir while in high school, and the selected contestant did not sing in a band, chorus, or choir while in high school. If you are to find the probabilities of these two events, would you use the classical approach or the relative frequency approach? Explain why.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The classical approach should be used to find probabilities as all contestants have an equal chance of being chosen. The probability of selecting a contestant who sang in school is approximately 0.339 and the probability of selecting a contestant who did not sing is approximately 0.661.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Total Number of Contestants

Firstly, identify the total number of contestants who have signed up for the karaoke contest. From the problem, it is clear that there are 56 contestants in total.
02

Identify the Number of Contestants for Each Category

Next, identify the number of contestants who sang in a band, chorus, or choir and those who didn't in high school. The problem states that 19 contestants had singing experience and 37 did not.
03

Determine the Appropriate Approach for Probability

To calculate the probability for these two events, classical approach should be used. Here, all the contestants have an equal chance of being chosen; hence, each outcome (contestant) is equally likely. It does not rely on prior experience or historical data, which is the hallmark of relative frequency approach.
04

Calculate the Probabilities

To calculate the probability of a contestant who sang in a band, chorus, or choir in high school: use the formula for classical probability which is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of outcomes. So the probability can be calculated as \(\frac{19}{56}\). Similarly, the probability of a contestant who did not sing can be calculated as \(\frac{37}{56}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Classical Probability
Classical probability is a fundamental concept in probability theory. It is often used when dealing with situations that have equally likely outcomes.
In the context of our exercise, each contestant has an equal chance of being selected. Thus, this method fits perfectly.
  • Definition: Classical probability is defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes.
  • Example: When selecting randomly from the 56 contestants, both groups (those with and without high school singing experience) are treated as equally likely possibilities.
While using the classical approach, it is assumed there’s no bias or historical influence affecting the probability calculation. This makes it ideal for cases such as simple random selections.
Relative Frequency Probability
Relative frequency probability comes into play when there's historical data or past results to rely upon to determine probabilities. It’s all about observing outcomes over repeated trials.

Unlike classical probability, this approach doesn’t assume equally likely outcomes. Instead, it uses observed frequencies to derive probabilities.

  • Definition: It is the probability derived from dividing the number of times an event occurs by the total number of observations or trials.
  • Real-world Example: Think of weather forecasts - the probability of rain is based on historical data.
In our exercise, there’s no historical data about past contests being used to determine probabilities. That’s why relative frequency isn’t the choice here.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is the process of quantifying the likelihood of an event. In our exercise, it's the chance of selecting a contestant with or without singing experience.
When working with classical probability, the calculation uses a simple formula:
- \( P = \frac{\text{number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{total number of possible outcomes}} \)
Using this formula:
  • The probability of selecting someone with singing experience is \( \frac{19}{56} \).
  • The probability of selecting someone without singing experience is \( \frac{37}{56} \).
These calculations give a precise numerical value to the likelihood of each event occurring.
Event Outcomes
Event outcomes are all the possible results that can occur when an event takes place. In probability, clearly identifying these outcomes is crucial.
In this scenario, the outcomes are:
  • One contestant is selected and has prior singing experience.
  • One contestant is selected and does not have prior singing experience.
Understanding outcomes helps set up the context and determine how probability calculations should be approached.
In random selection cases, like our karaoke contest, both outcomes must be considered to understand their relevance and contribution to overall probability.

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