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A 2007 article states that \(4.8 \%\) of U.S. households are "linguistically isolated," which means that all members of the household aged 14 years and older have difficulty speaking English (Source: http://www.antara.co.id/en/arc/2007/9/12/five-percent-of-us-families-dont- speak-english-report//). Assume that this percentage is true for the current population of U.S. households. Find the probability that in a random sample of 750 U.S. households, more than 45 would be classified as "linguistically isolated""

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that more than 45 out of a random sample of 750 U.S. households would be classified as linguistically isolated is approximately 0.0526 (or 5.26%).

Step by step solution

01

Identify Known Parameters and Requirements

From the problem, we know that n (the number of trials or sample size)= 750 households, p (the probability of success or linguistically isolated household) = 0.048 (or 4.8%) and we want to find P(X > 45), where X is the number of linguistically isolated households.
02

Check Conditions for Approximation

Before employing the binomial approximation, we need to make sure conditions for its application are met - Both np and n(1-p) should be greater than 5. Here, np = 750*0.048 = 36 and n(1-p) = 750*(1-0.048) = 713.4. Both are greater than 5, so we are cleared to proceed with the approximation.
03

Apply Normal Approximation

Because the number of trials is sufficiently large, we can use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. The corresponding normal distribution's mean, \(\mu = np = 36\) and the standard deviation, \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} = \sqrt{36*(1-0.048)} \approx 5.85 \).
04

Find the Probability

We're interested in the probability P(X > 45), which with the continuity correction becomes P(X > 45.5). We can convert this into a z-score with the formula \( z= (x-\mu)/\sigma \), so \( z= (45.5-36)/5.85 \approx 1.62 \). Now we can use the standard normal distribution table or a calculator to find P(Z > 1.62), which equals 1 - P(Z ≤ 1.62) = 1 - 0.9474 = 0.0526.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
In statistics, the binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of successful outcomes in a fixed number of independent trials. Each trial results in either success or failure, such as if a household is or isn't linguistically isolated.
The key elements to understand in a binomial distribution are:
  • **Trials** - These are the fixed number of experiments or observations. In this context, it's the number of households sampled, which is 750.
  • **Probability of success (p)** - This is the likelihood of a success in each trial. For this exercise, it's the probability that a household is linguistically isolated, given as 0.048.
  • **Number of successes (X)** - This is the random variable we're interested in. Here, it's the count of households that are linguistically isolated.
To verify the use of a binomial distribution, certain conditions must be met, such as the independence of trials and a consistent probability of success. When these conditions hold, the binomial distribution becomes a reliable model for probability calculations.
Probability
Probability measures how likely an event is to occur, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). In this problem, we're finding the probability that more than 45 out of 750 households are linguistically isolated.
First, it's essential to calculate the mean and variance of the distribution:
  • The mean \(\mu\) is given by \(np = 750 \times 0.048 = 36\).
  • The variance is \(np(1-p) = 750 \times 0.048 \times (1-0.048) = 36 \times 0.952\).
Understanding probabilities helps in making statistical inferences about a larger population based on sample data. By calculating probabilities, we can make predictions and assess risks with greater confidence.
Z-score
Z-scores help determine how far away a particular value is from the mean in a standard normal distribution. It's expressed in terms of standard deviations.
The formula to calculate a Z-score is:\[ z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\]where \(x\) is the value we're analyzing, \(\mu\) is the mean, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation. For our exercise, we calculate the Z-score for 45.5 to account for continuity correction:
  • Mean \(\mu = 36\)
  • Standard Deviation \(\sigma = \sqrt{36 \times 0.952} \approx 5.85\)
  • Z-score for \(45.5\) is \((45.5 - 36) / 5.85 \approx 1.62\)
Z-scores offer valuable insights, enabling us to use standard normal distribution tables to find probabilities linked to values such as \(z > 1.62\). This is crucial for solving questions like the given exercise.
Linguistically Isolated Households
A linguistically isolated household is one in which all members aged 14 and older face difficulties in speaking English. Understanding this concept is important because it allows sociologists, policymakers, and educators to identify communities that might need additional resources for language assistance.
For this problem, we assume the given statistic of 4.8% accurately represents the current U.S. household scenario. Thus, knowing this rate (probability) helps in conducting more informed research and taking appropriate actions to mitigate the challenges faced by such households.
Recognizing these isolation rates also fuels better public policies and enhances our understanding of demographic patterns, vital for effective planning and support systems.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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