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Although Borok's Electronics Company has no openings, it still receives an average of \(3.2\) unsolicited applications per week from people seeking jobs. a. Using the Poisson formula, find the probability that this company will receive no applications next week. b. Let \(x\) denote the number of applications this company will receive during a given week. Using the Poisson probabilities table from Appendix \(\mathrm{C}\), write the probability distribution table of \(x\) c. Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the probability distribution developed in part b.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that Borok's Electronics Company will receive no applications next week is \(e^{-3.2}\). The probability distribution of x can be found by calculating the probabilities of each possible outcome using the Poisson formula. Finally, the mean and variance are both 3.2 applications per week (since it is a Poisson distribution) and the standard deviation is \(\sqrt{3.2}\).

Step by step solution

01

- Use the Poisson formula to find the probability of no applications

The Poisson formula is given by \(P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}\), where \(λ = 3.2\) represents the average rate of success, \(k = 0\) for no applications, \(e\) is a mathematical constant approximately equal to 2.71828, and \(k!\) indicates 'k factorial' - the product of all positive integers less than or equal to k. In this case, the formula can be simplified to \(P(X = 0) = \frac{3.2^0 e^{-3.2}}{0!} = e^{-3.2}\). Calculate this to find the probability of receiving no applications next week.
02

- Write the probability distribution table of x

A Poisson probability distribution table simply lists all possible outcomes (number of applications in this case) and their corresponding probabilities. To create this table, repeat the calculations in Step 1 using the Poisson formula but replace k with each possible outcome (0, 1, 2, 3...). Typically, only the outcomes up to around two times the average rate are calculated (because probabilities become very small after that point - though in reality they continue indefinitely). Refer to a Poisson Probabilities Table (usually found in statistics textbooks) if necessary.
03

- Find the mean, variance, and standard deviation

For a Poisson distribution, all three of these statistical measures are particularly straightforward. The mean (expected value) for a Poisson distribution is simply \(λ\), the average rate of success - in this case, 3.2 applications per week. The variance of a Poisson distribution is also \(λ\), so again 3.2 in this case. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance, so \(\sqrt{3.2}\). Calculate this last value to finish.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Distribution
A probability distribution describes how the values of a random variable are distributed. In simpler terms, it tells us the likelihood of each possible outcome of a random event. When dealing with a Poisson distribution, this focuses specifically on events where we consider the probability of a number of events happening in a fixed interval of time or space.
In our example with Borok's Electronics Company, the Poisson distribution helps calculate the probability of receiving various numbers of job applications per week. It's called a 'Poisson distribution' because it utilizes the Poisson probability formula. The general formula is:
  • \(P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}\)
Where:
  • \(\lambda\) is the average number of occurrences (3.2 in our case).
  • \(k\) is the number of occurrences for which you want to find the probability.
  • \(e\) is approximately 2.71828 (Euler's number).
  • \(k!\) denotes the factorial of \(k\), meaning the product of all positive integers up to \(k\).
The Poisson distribution table would list these probabilities for different values of \(k\), showing you how likely different outcomes (different numbers of applications) are.
Mean and Variance
In statistics, the mean and variance are essential concepts that indicate the central tendency and spread of a distribution, respectively.
For a Poisson distribution, both the mean and variance have a unique property: they are equal to \(\lambda\), the average rate of success. This simplicity is one of the defining features of a Poisson distribution.The mean, sometimes known as the expected value, for our Poisson distribution is simply the average number of applications per week, which is 3.2 in the context of Borok's Electronics Company. It provides a central point, indicating on average how many unsolicited applications they might receive.
The variance, on the other hand, measures the dispersion or the spread of the distribution. It's the average of the squared differences from the Mean. In the example of Poisson distribution used here, the variance equals the mean, so it is also 3.2. This suggests that the number of job applications received each week fluctuates around this mean level with variance still being close to it.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of data values. It's a particularly useful measure in statistics because it has the same unit as the data, making it easier to interpret than variance.
In a Poisson distribution, the standard deviation can be derived easily because it is simply the square root of the variance. From our example, since the variance is 3.2 (as it is the same as the mean in a Poisson distribution), the standard deviation would be calculated as:
  • \( \text{Standard Deviation} = \sqrt{3.2} \approx 1.79 \)
This tells us, in the context of the Poisson distribution for unsolicited job applications, how much the number of incoming applications tends to differ from the average (3.2). A standard deviation of approximately 1.79 demonstrates moderate spread around the mean, which helps the company to understand the variability of receiving job applications per week.

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