/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 140 A trimotor plane has three engin... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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A trimotor plane has three engines-a central engine and an engine on each wing. The plane will crash only if the central engine fails and at least one of the two wing engines fails. The probability of failure during any given flight is \(.005\) for the central engine and \(.008\) for each of the wing engines. Assuming that the three engines operate independently, what is the probability that the plane will crash during a flight?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the plane will crash during a flight is 0.00008.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the probability of each event

We are given the probabilities of failure for each engine: \(P(Central) = 0.005\) for the central engine failure and \(P(Wing) = 0.008\) for each wing engine failure. Because both wing engines have the same failure rate, we also know that \(P(Wing1) = P(Wing2) = 0.008\).
02

Calculate the probability of independent events

We know that the plane will crash if both the central engine fails and at least one of the wing engines fail. These are independent events, so we calculate the joint probability by multiplying the probabilities of each event. Our scenarios are either the central and the first wing engine fail, or the central and the second wing engine fail. Therefore, the total probability of crashing is given by: \(P(Crash) = P(Central \cap Wing1) + P(Central \cap Wing2) = P(Central) \cdot P(Wing1) + P(Central) \cdot P(Wing2) = 0.005 \cdot 0.008 + 0.005 \cdot 0.008 = 0.00004 + 0.00004 \).
03

Evaluate the final probability

Adding the probabilities calculated in Step 2 we get the final probability of the plane crashing. Thus, \(P(Crash) = 0.00004 + 0.00004 = 0.00008\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
Understanding independent events is quite important when dealing with probabilities. Independent events are those in which the result or occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of another. In other words, knowing the outcome of one event gives no information about another.
In our exercise, each of the three engines operates independently. This implies that whether the central engine fails has no effect on whether the wing engines fail, and vice versa. This independence is crucial because it allows us to calculate joint probabilities by simply multiplying the probability of individual events. This concept is foundational in probability theory and aids in simplifying complex probability calculations.
Joint Probability
Calculating joint probabilities is essential when we are interested in determining the likelihood of multiple events occurring together. For independent events, like the engines in our problem, the joint probability of two events occurring simultaneously is simply the product of their individual probabilities.
To break it down: the plane will crash if the central engine fails and at least one of the wing engines fails. The joint probability approach allows us to find this by multiplying:
  • The probability of the central engine failing,
  • and the probability of one wing engine failing.
For both the first and second wing engines, this results in the formula: \[ P(Crash) = P(Central \cap Wing1) + P(Central \cap Wing2) = 0.005 \times 0.008 + 0.005 \times 0.008 \].
Utilizing joint probability gives a clear picture of compound events' likelihood.
Engine Failure
Engine failure in aviation is a critical topic lurking in the backdrop of flight safety. In this exercise, we are given specific failure probabilities for each engine. The central engine has a failure probability of 0.005, while each wing engine has a probability of 0.008. These small probabilities reflect the reliability and safety standards in aviation.
Engine failure considerations are central to designing robust systems in aircraft. The exercise also reminds us about the importance of independent systems in reducing the likelihood of a catastrophic event like a plane crash. By keeping engines independent, the aircraft can keep functioning even if one engine has issues. In practical terms, this redundancy protects against total system failure, aiming to make flights as safe as possible.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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