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91Ó°ÊÓ

The probability that an open-heart operation is successful is .84. What is the probability that in two randomly selected open-heart operations at least one will be successful? Draw a tree diagram for this experiment.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that at least one out of two randomly selected open-heart operations will be successful is 0.9744.

Step by step solution

01

Identification of possible outcomes

In this scenario, there are four possible outcomes for two open-heart operations: both are successful, the first one is successful and the second one is not, the first one is not successful and the second one is, and both are not successful. The last outcome represents the event that at least one operation is successful.
02

Calculation of probabilities

We can calculate the probability of at least one success as the complement of the event that both operations are unsuccessful. The probability of success P(S) for each operation is 0.84 and the probability of failure P(F) is 1 - P(S) = 0.16. Therefore, the probability for both being unsuccessful P(F1 ∩ F2) is P(F1) * P(F2) = 0.16 * 0.16 = 0.0256. Thus, the probability of at least one success P(S1 U S2) is 1 - P(F1 ∩ F2) = 1 - 0.0256 = 0.9744.
03

Drawing the tree diagram

We draw a tree diagram showing two levels representing the two operations. At each level, there are two branches corresponding to success (S) and failure (F). The branches are labeled with their respective probabilities. The probabilities along each path representing specific outcomes are calculated by multiplying the probabilities along the path. The tree diagram makes it easier to understand the problem and calculate required probabilities

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Tree Diagram
A tree diagram is a visual representation that helps in understanding all possible outcomes of a series of events. When dealing with probabilities, it maps out each event step-by-step, showing how they unfold in sequences. To use a tree diagram for the problem of open-heart operations, you start with the first operation, which can either be a success (S) or a failure (F). Each outcome branches off into the next event, which is the second operation.

By using this structure, you illustrate four possible scenarios: both operations succeed, only the first succeeds, only the second succeeds, or both fail. This tool not only makes it easier to see all possible outcomes but also to compute the overall probabilities of specific combined events. Labeling each branch with its respective probability (e.g., 0.84 for success) allows for easy calculation of event probabilities by multiplying along the branches.
Complement Rule
The complement rule in probability is a powerful tool for simplifying calculations. It states that the probability of an event occurring is 1 minus the probability of the event not occurring. This is particularly useful in reducing complex problems to simpler calculations.

In the context of open-heart operations, instead of calculating the probability that at least one operation is successful directly, we can find the likelihood of the opposite scenario—both operations failing—and subtract it from 1. Here, the probability of a single failure is 0.16, and for both operations failing is 0.16 multiplied by 0.16 (as they are independent events).

Hence, the complement rule tells us: Probability of at least one success = 1 - Probability of both failing = 1 - 0.0256 = 0.9744.
Probability of Independent Events
When two or more events are independent, the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of another. This concept is crucial in probability calculations, especially for multiple trials such as successive surgeries. In the given problem, each open-heart operation's outcome does not influence the other. This means the probability of success or failure for each event remains constant.

Mathematically, for independent events A and B, the combined probability of both events occurring is the product of their separate probabilities: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B).

For the operations in question: both failing together is 0.16 * 0.16, since each operation is independent. Understanding this helps simplify the computation and applies the complement rule accurately.
Open-heart Operation Success Probability
The probability of success in an open-heart operation can be a crucial statistic in medical scenarios. In this exercise, the given probability of success for each operation is 0.84. Understanding and calculating this can provide insights into expected outcomes over multiple procedures.

When analyzing the probability of successful operations, it involves not only individual probabilities but also joint analysis when considering more operations. In a broader scope, this type of calculation can help health practitioners estimate risks and make informed decisions.

In this particular problem, knowing that the probability of failing for each operation is 0.16 provides a clear pathway to calculate complex probabilities like having at least one successful operation among several performed procedures.

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