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A June 2009 Harris Interactive poll asked people their opinions about the influence of advertising on the products they buy. Among the people aged 18 to 34 years, \(45 \%\) view advertisements as being influential, whereas among the people aged 35 to 44 years, \(37 \%\) view advertisements as being influential. Suppose that this survey included 655 people in the 18 - to 34 -year age group and 420 in the \(35-\) to 44 year age group. a. Find a \(98 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the population proportions for the two age groups. b. At the \(1 \%\) significance level, can you conclude that the proportion of all people aged 18 to 34 years who view advertisements as being influential in their purchases is greater than the proportion of all people aged 35 to 44 years who hold the same opinion?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 98% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions of the two age groups is \(0.08 \pm 2.33 * SE\). b. Based on the Z statistic and the 1% significance level, we can make a conclusion about whether the proportion of all people aged 18 to 34 years who view advertisements as influential in their purchases is greater than the proportion of all people aged 35 to 44 years who hold the same opinion.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the known variables

Firstly, identify the known proportions and sample sizes for each age group. For people aged 18 to 34 years old, the sample size \(n_1\) is 655 and the proportion \(p_1\) seeing advertisements as influential is 0.45. For people aged 35 to 44 years old, the sample size \(n_2\) is 420 and the proportion \(p_2\) seeing advertisements as influential is 0.37.
02

Calculate sample proportions and their difference

The sample proportions can be calculated as: \(\hat{p}_1 = p_1 = 0.45\) and \(\hat{p}_2 = p_2 = 0.37\). The difference in sample proportions is: \(\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 = 0.45 - 0.37 = 0.08\).
03

Calculate the standard error

The standard error (SE) for the difference in proportions is given by: \( SE = \sqrt{ \frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2} } \). Plugging in the known values we get: \(SE = \sqrt{ \frac{0.45(1-0.45)}{655} + \frac{0.37(1-0.37)}{420} } \).
04

Calculate the 98% confidence interval

The confidence interval for the difference in proportions is given by: \( \hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2 \pm Z * SE \), where Z is the Z-score for the desired level of confidence. For a 98% confidence level, \(Z = 2.33\). So, the confidence interval is \(0.08 \pm 2.33 * SE\).
05

Perform hypothesis testing

For hypothesis testing, we formulate the null hypothesis \(H_0: p_1 - p_2 \leq 0\) and the alternative hypothesis \(H_a: p_1 - p_2 > 0\). Then, calculate the Z statistic: \( Z = \frac{\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2}{SE} \). If the calculated Z statistic is greater than the critical Z value for 1% significance level (Z = 2.33), we reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make decisions about a population based on sample data. In this exercise, the main aim is to determine if the proportion of people aged 18 to 34 who find advertisements influential is greater than those aged 35 to 44.

The process begins by setting up two hypotheses:
  • Null Hypothesis (\(H_0\)): The proportions are equal or \(p_1 - p_2 \leq 0\), meaning that advertising influence is equal or lesser among the younger age group.
  • Alternative Hypothesis (\(H_a\)): \(p_1 - p_2 > 0\), implying the younger age group sees advertising as more influential.
These hypotheses guide how we evaluate the sample data against a predetermined significance level. If the evidence, i.e., the calculated statistics, strongly supports the alternative hypothesis, the null hypothesis will be rejected.

Using the Z statistic, which measures how many standard errors the observed difference is from the hypothesized value, the hypothesis test is performed. A large Z value indicates a significant difference, making our decision leaning towards rejecting the null hypothesis.
Population Proportions
Population proportions represent the fraction of a total population that possesses a particular attribute. In this context, they quantify how much of each age group finds advertising influential.

For the age group of 18 to 34 years, the population proportion is \( p_1 = 0.45 \). This means 45% of this age group find ads influential. Meanwhile, for the age group of 35 to 44 years, \( p_2 = 0.37 \), indicating that 37% consider ads influential.

The task is to compare these two proportions to evaluate any significant difference between the level of advertising influence in the two groups. By using statistical methods, we support these findings to make broader generalizations about each entire age group, even if only a sample has been surveyed.

In real-world applications, these proportions help businesses and advertisers plan their strategies according to targeted audience segments, based on their perceptivity.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a key concept in statistics used to describe the variability of an estimate. Specifically, for this problem, it measures the variability of the difference between two sample proportions.

Calculating the SE helps us understand how much the sample proportions might vary from the actual population proportions if we were to draw different samples.

The formula for the standard error of two independent proportions is:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}_1(1-\hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \frac{\hat{p}_2(1-\hat{p}_2)}{n_2} }\]Plugging the known values into the formula helps us get a quantifiable measure of spread, or dispersion, within our data points.

This dispersion is crucial in calculating confidence intervals, providing a range of values where we believe the true difference in population proportions lies, and performing hypothesis tests. The smaller the standard error, the more confident we can be in our estimates.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted by \(\alpha\), is a measure of how willing we are to make a Type I error, which means rejecting a true null hypothesis. It acts like a threshold; if the p-value is below this level, we reject the null hypothesis.

In this exercise, we're working with a significance level of 1% (\(\alpha = 0.01\)). This is a relatively low threshold, meaning we require strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Many studies use a 5% significance level, but a 1% level is stricter, indicating high confidence requirements for any conclusions drawn.

It's important to choose an appropriate significance level in advance. A stringent significance level reduces the risk of making false positive conclusions, a priority in many scientific endeavors.

Therefore, when testing our hypothesis, if the Z statistic's value is greater than the critical value associated with \(\alpha = 0.01\), it results in the rejection of the null hypothesis, supporting that younger individuals find advertisements more influential in a statistically significant manner.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

We wish to estimate the difference between the mean scores on a standardized test of students taught by Instructors \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B}\). The scores of all students taught by Instructor A have a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 15, and the scores of all students taught by Instructor B have a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 10 . To estimate the difference between the two means, you decide that the same number of students from each instructor's class should be observed. a. Assuming that the sample size is the same for each instructor's class, how large a sample should be taken from each class to estimate the difference between the mean scores of the two populations to within 5 points with \(90 \%\) confidence? b. Suppose that samples of the size computed in part a will be selected in order to test for the difference between the two population mean scores using a \(.05\) level of significance. How large does the difference between the two sample means have to be for you to conclude that the two population means are different? c. Explain why a paired-samples design would be inappropriate for comparing the scores of Instructor A versus Instructor \(\mathrm{B}\).

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