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In a random sample of 800 men aged 25 to 35 years, \(24 \%\) said they live with one or both parents. In another sample of 850 women of the same age group, \(18 \%\) said that they live with one or both parents. a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of all men and all women aged 25 to 35 years who live with one or both parents. b. Test at the \(2 \%\) significance level whether the two population proportions are different. c. Repeat the test of part b using the \(p\) -value approach.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in proportions is \([0.02, 0.1]\). The null hypothesis that the population proportions are equal is rejected at the \(2\%\) significance level by both the traditional and the p-value approach.

Step by step solution

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Step 1. Calculate Sample Proportions

First, we calculate the sample proportions in each group. For men, \(p_{m} = 0.24\) and for women, \(p_{w} = 0.18\).
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Step 2. Construct Confidence interval

We then calculate the confidence interval for the difference in proportions using the formula \(\[ p_{m} - p_{w} \pm z \cdot \sqrt{\frac{p_{m} \cdot (1 - p_{m})}{n_{m}} + \frac{p_{w} \cdot (1 - p_{w})}{n_{w}}}\]\), where \(n_{m} = 800\) and \(n_{w} = 850\) are the sample sizes, \(p_{m} - p_{w}\) is the difference in the sample proportions, and \(z\) is the critical value from the standard normal distribution. For a \(95\%\) confidence interval, \(z = 1.96\). We plug in the values and calculate the interval as \([0.02, 0.1]\).
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Step 3. Hypothesis Test

Next, we test the null hypothesis \(H_0: p_{m} = p_{w}\) against the alternative hypothesis \(H_a: p_{m} ≠ p_{w}\) at a \(2 \%\) significance level. We calculate the test statistic as \(Z = \frac{(p_{m} - p_{w}) - 0}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n_{m}} + \frac{p(1 - p)}{n_{w}}}}\), where \(p\) is the pooled sample proportion given by \(\frac{p_{m}n_{m} + p_{w}n_{w}}{n_{m} + n_{w}}\). Then, we compare the calculated test statistic with the critical value \(z = \pm2.33\). If the calculated test statistic falls within the critical region, we reject the null hypothesis.
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Step 4. P-value Approach

We repeat the test using the p-value approach. We calculate the p-value which is the probability of observing a test statistic as extreme as the one calculated under the null hypothesis. If the p-value is less than the significance level of \(2\%\), we reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
A confidence interval gives us a range of values within which we expect the true difference in proportions to lie, with a certain level of confidence. In our exercise, we want to find this interval for the difference between the proportions of men and women living with parents. The formula for the confidence interval is \[ p_{m} - p_{w} \pm z \cdot \sqrt{\frac{p_{m} \cdot (1 - p_{m})}{n_{m}} + \frac{p_{w} \cdot (1 - p_{w})}{n_{w}}} \] where \( p_{m} \) and \( p_{w} \) are sample proportions, and \( n_{m} \) and \( n_{w} \) are sample sizes for men and women, respectively.
  • For men, \( p_{m} = 0.24 \) and \( n_{m} = 800 \).
  • For women, \( p_{w} = 0.18 \) and \( n_{w} = 850 \).
The critical value \( z \) for a 95% confidence interval is 1.96. Plugging in these values, the confidence interval we obtain is \( [0.02, 0.1] \). This means that the true difference in the proportion of men and women who live with parents is likely between 2% and 10%, with 95% confidence.
This interval helps us understand the range of possible differences in the population.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a method used to decide whether there is enough evidence to reject a claim about a population. Here, we examine whether there's a difference between men and women living with parents. We start by stating
  • Null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)): No difference between proportions,
  • Alternative hypothesis (\( H_a \)): Proportions are different.
To test these, we calculate a test statistic using the formula: \[ Z = \frac{(p_{m} - p_{w})}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1 - p)}{n_{m}} + \frac{p(1 - p)}{n_{w}}}} \] Where \( p \) is a pooled proportion from both samples. We then compare this \( Z \) to a critical value derived from a standard normal distribution. At a 2% significance level, the critical value is ±2.33. If our test statistic exceeds this critical range, we reject \( H_0 \) and accept \( H_a \).In this scenario, we calculated that the test statistic did reach our critical range, indicating a statistically significant difference in the living situations of men and women at a 2% level.
P-Value Approach
The p-value approach of hypothesis testing provides another way to determine the significance of observed data. It tells us how probable our observed data would be if the null hypothesis were true. A smaller p-value means stronger evidence against the null hypothesis.
In our exercise, we want to determine if there is a true difference between men's and women's living situations using this method.
  • We calculate a test statistic, usually a \( Z \) score, based on our sample data.
  • The p-value is the probability that a test statistic as extreme as our observed value could occur, assuming the null hypothesis is true.
If the p-value is less than the significance level, which is 2% in this context, we reject the null hypothesis. Conversely, if it exceeds 2%, we do not reject it.
In the given exercise, it was found that the p-value was less than 2%, indicating strong evidence against \( H_0 \), allowing us to conclude a significant difference exists between male and female living arrangements.
Proportion Difference
The difference in proportions is a measure used to compare two populations. In this case, it evaluates the difference between the proportions of men and women living with parents. It is calculated as \( p_{m} - p_{w} \).
  • For men, \( p_{m} = 0.24 \)
  • For women, \( p_{w} = 0.18 \)
This gives a proportion difference of 0.06 or 6%.
This figure shows how much more likely it is for males within the specified group to live with parents compared to females.
Knowing the proportion difference is crucial as it directly informs us about the comparative characteristics of the two groups.
This helps to understand whether policies or interventions may be needed and where should focus be directed, based on the needs identified.
Significance Level
The significance level (\( \alpha \)) is a threshold we set to decide whether we should reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of making a Type I error, that is, rejecting \( H_0 \) when it is actually true.
  • In the context of our exercise, the significance level is set at 2% (0.02).
This means if there's truly no difference between the groups, there's only a 2% chance our results would falsely suggest a difference. This is a relatively strict criterion and indicates that we require strong evidence before concluding that men and women differ in their living arrangements.
How low the significance level is set depends on the context and how severe the consequences of a Type I error would be. In scientific studies, a more common significance level is 5%, but stricter levels like 2% are used when accuracy is more important.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Perform the following tests of hypotheses, assuming that the populations of paired differences are normally distributed. a. \(H_{0}: \mu_{d}=0, \quad H_{1}: \mu_{d} \neq 0, \quad n=9, \quad \bar{d}=6.7, \quad s_{d}=2.5, \quad \alpha=.10\) b. \(H_{0}: \mu_{d}=0, \quad H_{1}: \mu_{d}>0, \quad n=22, \quad \bar{d}=14.8, \quad s_{d}=6.4, \quad \alpha=.05\) c. \(H_{0}: \mu_{d}=0, \quad H_{1}: \mu_{d}<0, \quad n=17, \quad \bar{d}=-9.3, \quad s_{d}=4.8, \quad \alpha=.01\)

The following information is obtained from two independent samples selected from two populations. $$ \begin{array}{lll} n_{1}=650 & \bar{x}_{1}=1.05 & \sigma_{1}=5.22 \\ n_{2}=675 & \bar{x}_{2}=1.54 & \sigma_{2}=6.80 \end{array} $$ a. What is the point estimate of \(\mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\) ? b. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\). Find the margin of error for this estimate.

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Sixty-five percent of all male voters and \(40 \%\) of all female voters favor a particular candidate. A sample of 100 male voters and another sample of 100 female voters will be polled. What is the probability that at least 10 more male voters than female voters will favor this candidate?

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