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A random sample of size 28 is drawn from a normal population. The summary statistics are \(\bar{x}-68.6\) and \(s=1.28\). a. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu\). b. Construct a \(99.5 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu\). c. Comment on why one interval is longer than the other.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% CI is (68.103, 69.097); the 99.5% CI is (67.703, 69.497). The 99.5% interval is longer due to increased certainty needed.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Confidence Interval Formula

The confidence interval for the population mean is given by the formula:\[ \bar{x} \pm t_{(\alpha/2, n-1)} \times \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]where \(\bar{x}\) is the sample mean, \(s\) is the sample standard deviation, \(n\) is the sample size, and \(t_{(\alpha/2, n-1)}\) is the t-score corresponding to a given confidence level \(\alpha\) for \(n-1\) degrees of freedom.
02

Calculate the 95% Confidence Interval

First, identify the t-score for a 95% confidence level and 27 degrees of freedom (since \(n = 28\)). From a t-distribution table, the t-score is approximately 2.052.Now, substitute \(\bar{x} = 68.6\), \(s = 1.28\), and \(n = 28\) into the formula:\[ 68.6 \pm 2.052 \times \frac{1.28}{\sqrt{28}} \]Calculate the margin of error:\[ 2.052 \times \frac{1.28}{\sqrt{28}} \approx 0.497 \]Thus, the 95% confidence interval is:\[ (68.6 - 0.497, 68.6 + 0.497) = (68.103, 69.097) \]
03

Calculate the 99.5% Confidence Interval

For a 99.5% confidence level and 27 degrees of freedom, the t-score is approximately 3.707.Substitute the known values into the formula:\[ 68.6 \pm 3.707 \times \frac{1.28}{\sqrt{28}} \]Calculate the margin of error:\[ 3.707 \times \frac{1.28}{\sqrt{28}} \approx 0.897 \]Thus, the 99.5% confidence interval is:\[ (68.6 - 0.897, 68.6 + 0.897) = (67.703, 69.497) \]
04

Compare the Confidence Intervals

The 95% confidence interval is (68.103, 69.097) and the 99.5% confidence interval is (67.703, 69.497). The 99.5% confidence interval is wider because a higher confidence level requires a larger margin of error to ensure the population mean is captured within this range with higher certainty.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding the t-distribution
The t-distribution is a probability distribution that is very useful when dealing with small sample sizes, usually those below 30. It is similar to the normal distribution but has heavier tails. This means that it accounts for more variability, which is important when the sample size is not very large. The shape of the t-distribution depends on the degrees of freedom, which in turn depends on the sample size. As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution gets closer to the normal distribution.
A key reason for using the t-distribution is that it provides a more accurate estimation of confidence intervals when the population standard deviation is unknown. Instead of relying on the normal distribution, which assumes large sample sizes, the t-distribution adjusts for small sample differences, providing a more reliable interval estimate of the population mean.
Defining Population Mean
The population mean, represented as \( \mu \), is a measure of central tendency, indicating the average value within a complete dataset. In many practical scenarios, calculating this mean directly for a whole population is not feasible, thus we rely on sample means from random samples drawn from the population.
In the context of confidence intervals, estimating the population mean is vital. A confidence interval gives us a range that likely covers the population mean, based on the sample data. By using techniques like the t-distribution, we can infer the population mean more accurately. This interval helps quantify the uncertainty inherent in estimating \( \mu \) from a sample.
Role of Sample Statistics
Sample statistics are numerical values that summarize characteristics of a sample. The most common examples include the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) and the sample standard deviation \( s \). These statistics provide essential insights into the sample data, revealing patterns or trends that would otherwise remain hidden in the raw dataset.
When constructing confidence intervals, these statistics serve as the backbone. The sample mean serves as the center of the interval, while the sample standard deviation helps calculate the margin of error. By combining these elements with the critical value from the t-distribution, we can create a confidence interval that informs us about the potential whereabouts of the population mean.
What are Degrees of Freedom?
Degrees of freedom in statistics refer to the number of values within a calculation that have the freedom to vary. In the context of estimating a population parameter, degrees of freedom tell us how many pieces of information are independent and freely available to estimate the parameter.
For instance, in a sample of size \( n \), when estimating a mean, the degrees of freedom are \( n - 1 \). This is because if we know the sample mean and \( n - 1 \) sample values, the last sample value is fixed and cannot vary. Therefore, for a t-distribution used in estimating confidence intervals, the degrees of freedom play a crucial role. The degrees of freedom affect the shape of the t-distribution and thereby influence the calculated confidence interval. The fewer the degrees of freedom, the thicker the tails of the distribution, leading to wider confidence intervals.

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