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The eating habits of 12 bats were examined in the article "Foraging Behavior of the Indian False Vampire Bat" (Biotropica [1991]: 63-67). These bats consume insects and frogs. For these 12 bats, the mean time to consume a frog was \(\bar{x}=21.9\) minutes. Suppose that the standard deviation was \(s=7.7\) minutes. Construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the mean suppertime of a vampire bat whose meal consists of a frog. What assumptions must be reasonable for the one-sample \(t\) interval to be appropriate?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 90% confidence interval for the mean supper time of a vampire bat consuming a frog is from 17.9008 minutes to 25.8992 minutes. The assumptions for this one-sample t interval to be reasonable are: the bats are a random sample from the population, the mean time to consume a frog follows a normal distribution, and the standard deviation of the population is unknown or not given.

Step by step solution

01

Identify necessary given values

Get the necessary values from the problem: mean \(\bar{x}=21.9\), standard deviation \(s=7.7\), sample size \(n=12\), and confidence level \(90\%\).
02

Determine degrees of freedom

Calculate the degrees of freedom as \(n - 1\). With \(n = 12\), the degrees of freedom (df) is \(12 - 1 = 11\).
03

Find the t-value from the t-distribution table

Use a t-distribution table to find the t-value associated with the given degrees of freedom and level of confidence. With df = 11 and a \(90\%\) confidence level (or \(0.05\) in each tail of the distribution), the t-value is approximately \(1.796\).
04

Calculate standard error

Calculate the standard error (SE) by dividing the standard deviation (\(s\)) by the square root of the sample size (\(n\)). So, \(SE = s\/\sqrt{n} = 7.7\/\sqrt{12} = 2.2254\).
05

Compute the margin of error

Calculate the margin of error (E) by multiplying the t-value by the standard error. Therefore, \(E = t \cdot SE = 1.796 \cdot 2.2254 = 3.9992\).
06

Compute the confidence interval

Subtract and add the margin of error from/to the mean to find the boundaries of the confidence interval. This leads to \((21.9 - 3.9992, 21.9 + 3.9992) = (17.9008, 25.8992)\).
07

Interpret the result

One can be 90% confident that the interval from 17.9008 minutes to 25.8992 minutes captures the true population mean time for a vampire bat to consume a frog.
08

Determine assumptions for the one-sample t interval

The assumptions for this method to be appropriate are: 1. The bats represent a random sample of the population of vampire bats. 2. The time to consume a frog is approximately normally distributed. 3. The standard deviation of the population is unknown or not given.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding T-Distribution
The t-distribution is a statistical probability distribution used when analyzing small sample data sets. Unlike the well-known bell curve or the normal distribution, the t-distribution considers the sample size and degrees of freedom to adjust for variability.

When you're working with a small sample (typically less than 30 observations), you can't rely on the normal distribution to estimate the mean of the population accurately. The t-distribution accounts for this by having heavier tails than a normal distribution, meaning there's a higher probability for extremes. As the sample size increases, the t-distribution gets closer to a normal distribution.

In the case of the vampire bats example, the small sample size of 12 bats means that using the t-distribution to construct a confidence interval would provide a more reliable estimate for the population mean than if we were to use the normal distribution.
Standard Deviation and its Significance
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates that the values are close to the set's mean, while a high standard deviation means that the values are spread out over a wider range.

When you're calculating a confidence interval, knowing the standard deviation of a sample provides critical information about how spread out the data is. It helps in assessing the reliability and precision of the sample mean as an estimate of the population mean. In our bat study, a standard deviation of 7.7 minutes implies there's variability in how long different bats take to consume a frog. This variability directly affects the margin of error and width of the confidence interval.
Sample Size: A Key Factor in Statistics
Sample size is crucial in statistics because it influences the accuracy of your estimates. A larger sample size can reduce the margin of error and yield a more precise confidence interval. That's because as you gather more data, the estimate of the population mean becomes more reliable.

In our bat example, the total number of vampire bats examined was 12, which is relatively small. The small sample size requires us to use the t-distribution and leads to a wider confidence interval, reflecting less certainty in our estimate when compared to larger sample sizes. If more bats were included in the study, we would expect a narrower confidence interval, assuming the same level of confidence.
Degrees of Freedom Explained
Degrees of freedom in statistics represent the number of independent values or quantities which can be assigned to a statistical distribution. The concept is foundational when working with sample data because it accounts for the number of values in the calculations that are free to vary.

Calculating the degrees of freedom is quite straightforward: it's the sample size minus one (-1). This value is used in determining the appropriate t-value when constructing a confidence interval. For instance, with 12 bats in the study, we have 11 degrees of freedom. This affects the shape of the t-distribution and therefore the calculation of the confidence interval. Understanding degrees of freedom is essential as it impacts the critical value chosen from the t-distribution table and hence the final results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Because of safety considerations, in May 2003 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) changed its guidelines for how small commuter airlines must estimate passenger weights. Under the old rule, airlines used 180 pounds as a typical passenger weight (including carry-on luggage) in warm months and 185 pounds as a typical weight in cold months. The Alaska Journal of Commerce (May 25,2003 ) reported that Frontier Airlines conducted a study to estimate average passenger plus carry-on weights. They found an average summer weight of 183 pounds and a winter average of 190 pounds. Suppose that each of these estimates was based on a random sample of 100 passengers and that the sample standard deviations were 20 pounds for the summer weights and 23 pounds for the winter weights. a. Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean summer weight (including carry-on luggage) of Frontier Airlines passengers. b. Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean winter weight (including carry-on luggage) of Frontier Airlines passengers. c. The new FAA recommendations are 190 pounds for summer and 195 pounds for winter. Comment on these recommendations in light of the confidence interval estimates from Parts (a) and (b).

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