/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 98 The general addition rule for th... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The general addition rule for three events states that $$ \begin{aligned} &P(A \text { or } B \text { or } C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C) \\ &\quad-P(A \text { and } B)-P(A \text { and } C) \\ &\quad-P(B \text { and } C)+P(A \text { and } B \text { and } C) \end{aligned} $$ A new magazine publishes columns entitled "Art" (A), "Books" (B), and "Cinema" (C). Suppose that \(14 \%\) of all subscribers read \(\mathrm{A}, 23 \%\) read \(\mathrm{B}, 37 \%\) read \(\mathrm{C}, 8 \%\) read \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B}, 9 \%\) read \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{C}, 13 \%\) read \(\mathrm{B}\) and \(\mathrm{C}\), and \(5 \%\) read all three columns. What is the probability that a randomly selected subscriber reads at least one of these three columns?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a randomly selected subscriber reads at least one of the columns is \(0.49\)

Step by step solution

01

- Identify the given probabilities

The problem provides several probabilities that we need to plug into the general addition rule for three events. These probabilities are as follows: \(P(A) = 0.14, P(B) = 0.23, P(C) = 0.37, P(A \text { and } B) = 0.08, P(A \text { and } C) = 0.09, P(B \text { and } C) = 0.13, P(A \text { and } B \text { and } C) = 0.05.\)
02

- Apply the general addition rule

Express the probabilities of the three events A, B, and C (reading Art, Books, or Cinema) using the general addition rule. That is: \[ P(A \text { or } B \text { or } C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A \text { and } B) - P(A \text { and } C) - P(B \text { and } C) + P(A \text { and } B \text { and } C)\]
03

- Compute the desired probability

Next, substitute the given probabilities into the formular: \[ P(A \text { or } B \text { or } C) = 0.14 + 0.23 + 0.37 - 0.08 - 0.09 - 0.13 + 0.05\]. Complete the computation to find the value of \(P(A \text { or } B \text { or } C)\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is an essential branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood of different outcomes or events. It allows us to analyze and make predictions about random occurrences based on known probabilities. These probabilities are numerical values between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 signifies certainty.

In this context, probability is often used to understand complex systems by considering individual possibilities and their interactions. The foundational principles of probability include events, sample spaces, and the basic operations on these sets, such as union, intersection, and complement. The goal is to assess how likely different combinations of these events are to occur by using probability rules and theorems.

Understanding probability theory provides powerful tools in fields like statistics, finance, science, and engineering, where decision-making and risk assessment are crucial. By using various probability rules, such as the general addition rule, we can find the likelihood of specific outcomes when dealing with multiple events.
Three Events
When dealing with probability, analyzing three events simultaneously can become complex due to the various combinations that need to be considered. In our scenario, these three events are the readers' engagement with different magazine columns: Art (A), Books (B), and Cinema (C).

The complexity arises because we must evaluate not only the probability of each event occurring individually but also the likelihood of two or more events overlapping. This includes:
  • Readers who are interested in both Art and Books (A and B).
  • Readers who enjoy both Art and Cinema (A and C).
  • Readers who like both Books and Cinema (B and C).
  • And finally, those who appreciate all three sections (A, B, and C).

By assessing each of these possibilities, we can apply comprehensive rules, such as the general addition rule, to determine the overall probability of a subscriber engaging with at least one column. These calculations help us understand patterns in reader preferences and tailor content accordingly.
Inclusion-Exclusion Principle
The inclusion-exclusion principle is a fundamental concept in combinatorics and probability theory that helps us find the probability of the union of several events. It corrects the over-counting that occurs when simply summing up individual probabilities of multiple events.

When analyzing the probability of at least one of the three events (A, B, or C) occurring, adding up probabilities directly might lead to an inaccurate result due to shared probabilities in overlapping areas. The inclusion-exclusion principle systematically subtracts and adds intersecting terms to find the precise probability:
  • Add each event separately: \( P(A) + P(B) + P(C) \)
  • Subtract probabilities for all pairwise intersections: \(- P(A \text { and } B) - P(A \text { and } C) - P(B \text { and } C) \)
  • Add back the probability of the triple intersection (if applicable): \(+ P(A \text { and } B \text { and } C) \)

This principle ensures no double-counting while including all necessary components to find the true probability. It beautifully simplifies complex event interactions into a comprehensible calculation framework.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that a six-sided die is "loaded" so that any particular even-numbered face is twice as likely to land face up as any particular odd-numbered face. Consider the chance experiment that consists of rolling this die. a. What are the probabilities of the six simple events? (Hint: Denote these events by \(O_{1}, \ldots, O_{6}\). Then \(P\left(O_{1}\right)=p, P\left(O_{2}\right)=2 p, P\left(O_{3}\right)=p, \ldots, P\left(O_{6}\right)=2 p\) Now use a condition on the sum of these probabilities to determine \(p\).) b. What is the probability that the number showing is an odd number? at most three? c. Now suppose that the die is loaded so that the probability of any particular simple event is proportional to the number showing on the corresponding upturned face; that is, \(P\left(O_{1}\right)=c, P\left(O_{2}\right)=2 c, \ldots\), \(P\left(O_{6}\right)=6 c\). What are the probabilities of the six simple events? Calculate the probabilities of Part (b) for this die.

The accompanying probabilities are from the report "Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level" (www.ncaa.org). The probability that a randomly selected high school basketball player plays NCAA basketball as a freshman in college is \(.0303\); the probability that someone who plays NCAA basketball as a freshman will be playing NCAA basketball in his senior year is .7776; and the probability that a college senior NCAA basketball player will play professionally after college is .0102. Suppose that a high school senior basketball player is chosen at random. Define the events \(F, S\), and \(D\) as \(F=\) the event that the player plays as a college freshman \(S=\) the event that the player also plays as a senior \(D=\) the event that the player plays professionally after college a. Based on the information given, what are the values of \(P(F), P(S \mid F)\), and \(P(D \mid S \cap F)\) ? b. What is the probability that a senior high school basketball player plays college basketball as a freshman and as a senior and then plays professionally? (Hint: This is \(P(F \cap S \cap D) .)\)

A bookstore sells two types of books (fiction and nonfiction) in several formats (hardcover, paperback, digital, and audio). For the chance experiment that consists of observing the type and format of a single-book purchase, two possible outcomes are a hardcover fiction book and an audio nonfiction book. a. There are eight outcomes in the sample space for this experiment. List these possible outcomes. b. Do you think it is reasonable to think that the outcomes for this experiment would be equally likely? Explain. c. For customers who purchase a single book, the estimated probabilities for the different possible outcomes are given in the cells of the accompanying table. What is the probability that a randomly selected single-book purchase will be for a book in print format (hardcover or paperback)? $$ \begin{array}{l|cccc} {\text { Hardcover }} & \text { Paperback } & \text { Digital } & \text { Audio } \\ \hline \text { Fiction } & .15 & .45 & .10 & .10 \\ \text { Nonfiction } & .08 & .04 & .02 & .06 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ d. Show two different ways to compute the probability that a randomly selected single-book purchase will be for a book that is not in a print format. e. Find the probability that a randomly selected singlebook purchase will be for a work of fiction.

A family consisting of three people- \(\mathrm{P}_{1}, \mathrm{P}_{2}\), and \(\mathrm{P}_{3}\) -belongs to a medical clinic that always has a physician at each of stations 1,2, and \(3 .\) During a certain week, each member of the family visits the clinic exactly once and is randomly assigned to a station. One experimental outcome is \((1,2,1)\), which means that \(\mathrm{P}_{1}\) is assigned to station \(1, \mathrm{P}_{2}\) to station 2, and \(\mathrm{P}_{3}\) to station \(1 .\) a. List the 27 possible outcomes. (Hint: First list the nine outcomes in which \(\mathrm{P}_{1}\) goes to station 1, then the nine in which \(\mathrm{P}_{1}\) goes to station 2, and finally the nine in which \(\mathrm{P}_{1}\) goes to station 3 ; a tree diagram might help.) b. List all outcomes in the event \(A\), that all three people go to the same station. c. List all outcomes in the event \(B\), that all three people go to different stations. d. List all outcomes in the event \(C\), that no one goes to station 2 . e. Identify outcomes in each of the following events: \(B^{C}, C^{C}, A \cup B, A \cap B, A \cap C\).

A shipment of 5000 printed circuit boards contains 40 that are defective. Two boards will be chosen at random, without replacement. Consider the two events \(E_{1}=\) event that the first board selected is defective and \(E_{2}=\) event that the second board selected is defective. a. Are \(E_{1}\) and \(E_{2}\) dependent events? Explain in words. b. Let \(n o t E_{1}\) be the event that the first board selected is not defective (the event \(E_{1}^{C}\) ). What is \(P\left(\right.\) not \(E_{1}\) )? c. How do the two probabilities \(P\left(E_{2} \mid E_{1}\right)\) and \(P\left(E_{2} \mid\right.\) not \(\left.E_{1}\right)\) compare? d. Based on your answer to Part (c), would it be reasonable to view \(E_{1}\) and \(E_{2}\) as approximately independent?

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