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Jeanie is a bit forgetful, and if she doesn't make a "to do" list, the probability that she forgets something she is supposed to do is .1. Tomorrow she intends to run three errands, and she fails to write them on her list. a. What is the probability that Jeanie forgets all three errands? What assumptions did you make to calculate this probability? b. What is the probability that Jeanie remembers at least one of the three errands? c. What is the probability that Jeanie remembers the first errand but not the second or third?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) The probability that Jeanie forgets all three errands is 0.001. b) The probability that Jeanie remembers at least one errand is 0.999. c) The probability that Jeanie remembers the first errand but not the second or third is 0.009.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Probability of Forgetting All Three Errands

Given that the probability of forgetting an errand is 0.1, and assuming that each errand is an independent event, the probability of forgetting all three errands would be \(0.1 \times 0.1 \times 0.1 = 0.001\). This is because in independent events, the probability of all events happening is the product of their individual probabilities.
02

Calculate the Probability of Remembering at Least One Errand

To find the probability of remembering at least one errand, we need to use the principle of complementary probabilities. This states that the probability of an event happening is 1 minus the probability of it not happening. In this case, the event 'not happening' would be forgetting all three errands, which we calculated in Step 1 as 0.001. Therefore, the probability of remembering at least one of the three errands would be \(1 - 0.001 = 0.999\).
03

Calculate the Probability of Remembering the First Errand but Not the Second or Third

She has to remember the first errand (probability 0.9) and forget the second and third (each with a probability of 0.1). Since these are independent events, we multiply the probabilities to get the overall probability: \(0.9 \times 0.1 \times 0.1 = 0.009\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events in Probability
Understanding independent events is crucial when calculating the likelihood of several occurrences. In probability, two events are independent if the outcome of one does not influence the outcome of the other. An illustrative example of independent events can be seen when flipping a coin. Whether you get heads or tails on the first flip has no effect on the result of the second flip.

For instance, in the given exercise, Jeanie's remembering or forgetting an errand is independent of the other errands. Each errand's outcome doesn't affect the others. So, when calculating the probability of Jeanie forgetting all three errands, we multiply the individual probabilities of her forgetting each one, assuming each errand has an equal chance of being forgotten, which in this case is 0.1. The product rule for independent events states that:

\[ P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B) \]

where \(A\) and \(B\) are two independent events. Extending this to multiple events, Jeanie forgetting all three errands can be represented as \(0.1 \times 0.1 \times 0.1 = 0.001\), showcasing the multiplication rule for independent events.
Complementary Probabilities
Complementary probabilities refer to the concept that every event \(A\) has a complement \(A^c\), which encompasses all outcomes that are not in \(A\). The probability of event \(A\) occurring plus the probability of event \(A^c\) happening always equals 1.

Using this concept, if we want to determine the probability of an event not occurring (such as Jeanie not forgetting all her errands), we can subtract the probability of the event occurring from 1. From our example, we calculated that Jeanie forgetting all three errands is highly unlikely (\(P(A) = 0.001\)). To find the probability of the opposite happening--that is, her remembering at least one--we calculate the complement (\(P(A^c) = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 0.001 = 0.999\)). This helps us understand that the likelihood of her not forgetting at least one errand is 0.999.
Calculating Probabilities for Multiple Events
When faced with multiple events, calculating the combined probability involves using the rules we've discussed: for independent events, we multiply their probabilities, and for complementary events, we leverage the sum of probabilities to equal 1.

Let's apply this to Jeanie's situation again. If we need to calculate the probability of her remembering the first errand, but forgetting the second and third, we multiply the individual probabilities of each event since they are independent. Thus, \(P(\text{ first errand remembered }) = 0.9\) and \(P(\text{ second and third errands forgotten }) = 0.1 \times 0.1\). Hence, the overall probability becomes:\( 0.9 \times 0.1 \times 0.1 = 0.009\).

This approach underlines how we can compile probabilities across multiple independent events, allowing us to gain a comprehensive understanding of complex scenarios made of simpler, independent occurrences.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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