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After all students have left the classroom, a statistics professor notices that four copies of the text were left under desks. At the beginning of the next lecture, the professor distributes the four books at random to the four students \((1,2,3\), and 4\()\) who claim to have left books. One possible outcome is that 1 receives 2's book, 2 receives 4's book, 3 receives his or her own book, and 4 receives l's book. This outcome can be abbreviated \((2,4,3,1)\). a. List the 23 other possible outcomes. b. Which outcomes are contained in the event that exactly two of the books are returned to their correct owners? Assuming equally likely outcomes, what is the probability of this event? c. What is the probability that exactly one of the four students receives his or her own book? d. What is the probability that exactly three receive their own books? e. What is the probability that at least two of the four students receive their own books?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. There are 23 other outcomes, which we can find by generating all permutations of 4 distinct items. b. There are 12 outcomes where exactly 2 students receive their books and the probability is \(\frac{1}{2}\). c. The probability that exactly one student receive their book is \(\frac{1}{3}\). d. The probability that 3 students receive their own books is 0, because it implies all students get their book which violates the condition. e. The probability that at least 2 students receive their own books is \(\frac{13}{24}\).

Step by step solution

01

List all potential outcomes

As there are 4 textbooks, we have 4x3x2x1 = 24 possible arrangements, including the given one (2,4,3,1). We list the remaining 23 as required. Fortunately, there are tools available online that can generate permutations for you.
02

Find outcomes with exactly two books returned correctly

In this scenario, 2 out of the 4 students must get their own books, while the other 2 cannot. There are \({4\choose2}=6\) ways to choose which two students get their books, and then 2 ways to arrange the remaining students' books. This gives us a total of \(6*2=12\) favorable outcomes. The probability is therefore \(\frac{12}{24}=\frac{1}{2}\).
03

Find probability of exactly one student getting their book

We use a similar approach. We have \({4\choose1}=4\) ways of choosing which student gets their book. The remaining students forms a cyclic permutation, which has \((3-1)!=2\) possibilities. Hence, the number of favorable outcomes is \(4*2=8\), and the probability is \(\frac{8}{24}=\frac{1}{3}\).
04

Find probability of exactly three students getting their books

If 3 students receive their own books, it implies that the 4th one also gets their own book which goes against our condition. Hence, this situation is not possible and the probability is 0.
05

Find probability of at least two of the students getting their books

If we want at least two students to get their books, we are looking for scenarios where 2, 3, or 4 students get their books. As found in step 2 and 4, there are 12 cases where exactly 2 students get their books and 1 case where all 4 get their own books. Thus, there are \(12+1=13\) favorable outcomes. The probability is \(\frac{13}{24}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Permutations
Permutations refer to the different ways in which a set of items can be arranged in order. In our exercise, permutation plays a crucial role as it determines the number of ways the professor can distribute the four textbooks among the students. Since each textbook must go to one student and there are four textbooks, we calculate the total number of permutations for these four items using the factorial of 4, denoted as \(4!\). This is computed as follows:

\[4! = 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 24\]

Thus, there are 24 possible ways to distribute the books randomly. Understanding permutations allows us to organize and count these arrangements efficiently.
Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the field of mathematics that deals with counting, both as a means and an end in obtaining results. In the problem at hand, we use combinatorics to solve for various probability scenarios.

**List Possible Outcomes**
To solve part of the exercise, we first need to acknowledge the total number of possible ways to distribute the books, which involves listing or considering all permutations of the textbooks among students.

**Choosing Outcomes**
For specific questions such as when exactly two students receive their correct book, combinatorics helps us calculate this using combinations. We select two students from a group of four who will definitely receive their own books. This is indicated by the combination \({4 \choose 2}\), representing how many subsets of 2 we can form, which is calculated as 6. Then, we account for the arrangement of the other unmapped students' books, leading to a total of \(6 \times 2 = 12\) favorable outcomes.

Combinatorics provides the tools needed for organizing and counting these outcomes to identify probabilities.
Equally Likely Outcomes
In probability theory, equally likely outcomes refer to scenarios where each outcome in the sample space has the same chance of occurring. This assumption is crucial for calculating probabilities.

**Equally Likely in Textbook Distribution**
In our exercise, every possible permutation of the textbooks is considered equally likely. This implies that since there are 24 permutations, the probability of any specific permutation occurring, such as a student receiving their own book, is \(\frac{1}{24}\).

By understanding that each outcome has an equal chance, we simplify the calculation of probabilities. For example, the probability that exactly two students receive their own books is obtained by dividing the number of favorable outcomes (12) by the total number of outcomes (24), resulting in \(\frac{1}{2}\).

This concept is foundational in probability and helps ensure fairness and accuracy in our calculations when each arrangement or case is assumed to be equally probable.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A medical research team wishes to evaluate two different treatments for a disease. Subjects are selected two at a time, and then one of the pair is assigned to each of the two treatments. The treatments are applied, and each is either a success (S) or a failure (F). The researchers keep track of the total number of successes for each treatment. They plan to continue the chance experiment until the number of successes for one treatment exceeds the number of successes for the other treatment by 2 . For example, they might observe the results in the table for Exercise \(6.82\) given below. The chance experiment would stop after the sixth pair, because Treatment 1 has 2 more successes than Treatment \(2 .\) The researchers would conclude that Treatment 1 is preferable to Treatment \(2 .\) Suppose that Treatment 1 has a success rate of \(.7\) (that is, \(P(\) success \()=.7\) for Treatment 1\()\) and that Treatment 2 has a success rate of \(.4 .\) Use simulation to estimate the probabilities in Parts (a) and (b). (Hint: Use a pair of random digits to simulate one pair of subjects. Let the first digit represent Treatment 1 and use \(1-7\) as an indication of a success and 8,9 , and 0 to indicate a failure. Let the second digit represent Treatment 2, with 1-4 representing a success. For example, if the two digits selected to represent a pair were 8 and 3 , you would record failure for Treatment 1 and success for Treatment 2\. Continue to select pairs, keeping track of the total number of successes for each treatment. Stop the trial as soon as the number of successes for one treatment exceeds that for the other by \(2 .\) This would complete one trial. Now repeat this whole process until you have results for at least 20 trials [more is better]. Finally, use the simulation results to estimate the desired probabilities.) a. Estimate the probability that more than five pairs must be treated before a conclusion can be reached. (Hint: \(P(\) more than 5\()=1-P(5\) or fewer \() .\) ) b. Estimate the probability that the researchers will incorrectly conclude that Treatment 2 is the better treatment.

The manager of a music store has kept records of the number of CDs bought in a single transaction by customers who make a purchase at the store. The accompanying table gives six possible outcomes and the estimated probability associated with each of these outcomes for the chance experiment that consists of observing the number of CDs purchased by the next customer at the store. $$ \begin{aligned} &\begin{array}{l} \text { Number of CDs } \\ \text { purchased } \end{array} & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \text { or more } \\ &\begin{array}{c} \text { Estimated } \\ \text { probability } \end{array} & .45 & .25 & .10 & .10 & .07 & .03 \end{aligned} $$ a. What is the estimated probability that the next customer purchases three or fewer CDs? b. What is the estimated probability that the next customer purchases at most three CDs? How does this compare to the probability computed in Part (a)? c. What is the estimated probability that the next customer purchases five or more CDs? d. What is the estimated probability that the next customer purchases one or two CDs? e. What is the estimated probability that the next customer purchases more than two CDs? Show two different ways to compute this probability that use the probability rules of this section.

Is ultrasound a reliable method for determining the gender of an unborn baby? The accompanying data on 1000 births are consistent with summary values that appeared in the online version of the Journal of Statistics Education ("New Approaches to Leaming Probability in the First Statistics Course" [2001]). $$ \begin{array}{ccc} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Ultrasound } \\ \text { Predicted } \\ \text { Female } \end{array} & \begin{array}{c} \text { Ultrasound } \\ \text { Predicted } \\ \text { Male } \end{array} \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { Actual Gender Is } \\ \text { Female } \end{array} & 432 & 48 \\ \begin{array}{c} \text { Actual Gender Is } \\ \text { Male } \end{array} & 130 & 390 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Use the given information to estimate the probability that a newborn baby is female, given that the ultrasound predicted the baby would be female. b. Use the given information to estimate the probability that a newborn baby is male, given that the ultrasound predicted the baby would be male. c. Based on your answers to Parts (a) and (b), do you think that a prediction that a baby is male and a prediction that a baby is female are equally reliable? Explain.

Consider a Venn diagram picturing two events \(A\) and \(B\) that are not disjoint. a. Shade the event \((A \cup B)^{C} .\) On a separate Venn diagram shade the event \(A^{C} \cap B^{C} .\) How are these two events related? b. Shade the event \((A \cap B)^{C} .\) On a separate Venn diagram shade the event \(A^{C} \cup B^{C} .\) How are these two events related? (Note: These two relationships together are called DeMorgan's laws.)

Only \(0.1 \%\) of the individuals in a certain population have a particular disease (an incidence rate of .001). Of thóse whò have the disease, \(95 \%\) test possitive whèn a certain diagnostic test is applied. Of those who do not have the disease, \(90 \%\) test negative when the test is applied. Suppose that an individual from this population is randomly selected and given the test. a. Construct a tree diagram having two first-generation branches, for has disease and doesn't have disease, and two second-generation branches leading out from each of these, for positive test and negative test. Then enter appropriate probabilities on the four branches. b. Use the general multiplication rule to calculate \(P\) (has disease and positive test). c. Calculate \(P\) (positive test). d. Calculate \(P\) (has disease| positive test). Does the result surprise you? Give an intuitive explanation for the size of this probability.

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