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Chapter 2: Problem 10

Based on a survey conducted on the DietSmart .com web site, investigators concluded that women who regularly watched Oprah were only one-seventh as likely to crave fattening foods as those who watched other daytime talk shows (San Luis Obispo Tribune, October 14,2000\()\). a. Is it reasonable to conclude that watching \(O\) prah causes a decrease in cravings for fattening foods? Explain. b. Is it reasonable to generalize the results of this survey to all women in the United States? To all women who watch daytime talk shows? Explain why or why not.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) No, it is not reasonable to conclude that watching Oprah causes a decrease in cravings for fattening foods because correlation doesn't indicate causation. b) No, it is not reasonable to generalize the results of this survey because the survey sample is biased towards those interested in diets, hence it doesn't represent all women in the United States or all women who watch daytime talk shows.

Step by step solution

01

Analyzing the Causation

The survey states that women who watched Oprah were only one-seventh as likely to crave fattening foods as those who watched other daytime talk shows. However, just because two things occur together doesn't mean that one causes the other. This is a concept called correlation. It might be that the Oprah show features more health-related topics, so it attracts viewers who are already health-conscious and less inclined to crave fattening foods. Therefore, there isn't enough evidence to conclude that watching Oprah inherently causes a decrease in cravings for fattening foods.
02

Analyzing the Generalization of results

Generalizing the results of this survey can be problematic. While the survey could be large and randomized, it was completed on the DietSmart .com web site, which means individuals visiting this site are likely already interested in diet and nutrition. This group may not reflect the diet preferences of all women in the United States or all women watching daytime talk shows. Therefore, it would be risky to generalize that all women who watch Oprah would have reduced cravings for fatty foods.
03

Conclusion

In sum, this survey's results reflect an observable correlation but not necessarily causation. Also, because the survey was conducted on a specific website catering to individuals with specific interest in diet and health, it could not accurately represent all women in the United States or all women who watch daytime TV shows. Thus, care must be taken to avoid over-generalization and improper causation conclusions from survey results.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Generalization in Surveys
When we discuss generalization in surveys, we're talking about how well the findings from a specific sample can be applied to a larger population. Imagine conducting a survey on one street in a city and applying the results to the whole city. That could be risky!
This becomes even more complex with specific groups. For instance, if a survey is conducted on DietSmart.com, the respondents might have particular interests like dieting and nutrition. This unique characteristic makes it difficult to apply the survey findings to a wider audience.
To make sound generalizations, surveys need to have a diverse set of respondents. Ideally, they should mirror the characteristics of the larger group you want to understand, like age, lifestyle, and location. Surveys should also be conducted in a way that doesn't limit participants to a specific subset of a population.
Bias in Sampling
Bias in Sampling occurs when certain members of a population are more likely to be selected in a survey than others. This can lead to skewed results. For example, if you conduct a survey on a health-focused website, visitors are probably more diet-conscious than the average person.
Bias can occur if the selection process excludes certain groups or if the environment influences who responds. Overcoming sampling bias requires careful planning.
  • Random Sampling: Every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected.
  • Stratified Sampling: Dividing the population into subgroups and sampling from each group.
  • Avoid leading questions or environments that promote a specific response.
A sample free from bias is essential for results that are representative of the larger group.
Survey Analysis
Survey Analysis is the process of interpreting data collected from a survey. This involves looking beyond the immediate results to consider any potential flaws or influences that could affect the data.
In the case of surveys, understanding that correlation does not imply causation is crucial. Just because a trend appears between two variables, it doesn't mean one causes the other.
Effective survey analysis should consider:
  • The demographic characteristics of respondents.
  • Possible biases in the survey design.
  • Other external factors that could influence responses.
Meticulous survey analysis helps in making well-informed conclusions and mitigating improper inferences about causation or generalization. Always question and evaluate the true implications of any survey results before accepting them at face value.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Of the 6500 students enrolled at a community college, 3000 are part time and the other 3500 are full time. The college can provide a list of students that is sorted so that all full-time students are listed first, followed by the part-time students. a. Describe a procedure for selecting a stratified random sample that uses full-time and part-time students as the two strata and that includes 10 students from each stratum. b. Does every student at this community college have the same chance of being selected for inclusion in the sample? Explain.

A survey described in the paper "The Adolescent Health Review: A Brief Multidimensional Screening Instrument" (Journal of Adolescent Health [2001]:131-139) attempted to address psychosocial factors thought to be of importance in preventive health care for adolescents. For each risk area in the following list, construct a question that would be comprehensible to students in grades \(9-12\) and that would provide information about the risk factor. Make your questions multiple-choice, and provide possible responses. a. Lack of exercise b. Poor nutrition c. Emotional distress d. Sexual activity e. Cigarette smoking f. Alcohol use

A study of more than 50,000 U.S. nurses found that those who drank just one soda or fruit punch a day tended to gain much more weight and had an \(80 \%\) increased risk in developing diabetes compared to those who drank less than one a month. (The Washington Post, August 25,2004 ). "The message is clear. ... Anyone who cares about their health or the health of their family would not consume these beverages," said Walter Willett of the Harvard School of Public Health, who helped conduct the study. The sugar and beverage industries said that the study was fundamentally flawed. "These allegations are inflammatory. Women who drink a lot of soda may simply have generally unhealthy lifestyles," said Richard Adamson of the American Beverage Association. a. Do you think that the study described was an observational study or an experiment? b. Is it reasonable to conclude that drinking soda or fruit punch causes the observed increased risk of diabetes? Why or why not?

A manufacturer of clay roofing tiles would like to investigate the effect of clay type on the proportion of tiles that crack in the kiln during firing. Two different types of clay are to be considered. One hundred tiles can be placed in the kiln at any one time. Firing temperature varies slightly at different locations in the kiln, and firing temperature may also affect cracking. Discuss the design of an experiment to collect information that could be used to decide between the two clay types. How does your proposed design deal with the extraneous variable temperature?

The article "Television's Value to Kids: It's All in How They Use It" (Seattle Times, July 6,2005 ) described a study in which researchers analyzed standardized test results and television viewing habits of 1700 children. They found that children who averaged more than 2 hours of television viewing per day when they were younger than 3 tended to score lower on measures of reading ability and short-term memory. a. Is the study described an observational study or an experiment? b. Is it reasonable to conclude that watching two or more hours of television is the cause of lower reading scores? Explain.
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