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"Smartest People Often Dumbest About Sunburns" is the headline of an article that appeared in the San Luis Obispo Tribune (July 19,2006\()\). The article states that "those with a college degree reported a higher incidence of sunburn that those without a high school degree- \(43 \%\) versus \(25 \% .\) " For purposes of this exercise, suppose that these percentages were based on random samples of size 200 from cach of the two groups of interest (college graduates and those without a high school degrec). Is there convincing evidence that the proportion experiencing a sunburn is higher for college graduates than it is for those without a high school degrec? Answer based on a test with a \(.05\) significance level.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, based on a test with a .05 significance level, there is convincing evidence that the proportion experiencing a sunburn is higher for college graduates than it is for those without a high school degree.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate the hypotheses

First, the null hypothesis \(H_0\) and alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) need to be formulated. \(H_0: p1 = p2\), The proportion of college graduates who get sunburnt is the same as the proportion of those without a high school degree who get sunburnt. \(H_a: p1 > p2\), The proportion of college graduates who get sunburnt is greater than the proportion of those without a high school degree who get sunburnt.
02

Calculate pooled proportion

The pooled proportion will give us a common estimated proportion of the two groups where \(p = (X1 + X2) / (n1 + n2)\). Given \(X1 = 0.43 * 200, X2 = 0.25 * 200, n1 = n2 = 200\), the pooled proportion will therefore be p = (86+50) / (200+200) = 0.34.
03

Calculate the standard error

Next, calculate the standard error: \(SE = sqrt{ p * ( 1 - p ) * [ (1/n1) + (1/n2) ] }\). With the calculated pooled proportion and sample sizes, the standard error is \(SE = sqrt{ 0.34 * ( 1 - 0.34 ) * [ (1/200) + (1/200) ] } = 0.036.
04

Calculate the test statistic

The test statistic is calculated as follows: \(Z = (p1 - p2) / SE\), where \(p1\) is the proportion of sunburn incidents for college graduates (0.43) and \(p2\) is the proportion of sunburn incidents for non-high school graduates (0.25). Solving for \(Z\), we find \(Z = (0.43 - 0.25) / 0.036 = 5.0.
05

Conclusion

The critical value associated with a significance level of 0.05 for a one-sided test is approximately 1.645. Our calculated test statistic (Z = 5.0) is significantly larger than the critical value (1.645), therefore we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Consequently, we can conclude that there is a statistically significant difference in the proportions and that the proportion of college graduates experiencing a sunburn is indeed higher than for those without a high school degree.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion Test
A proportion test is a statistical tool used to determine if there is a significant difference between two group proportions. It helps in comparing scenarios, like whether college graduates have a higher rate of sunburn than those without a high school degree. In this scenario, we refer to these groups' proportions as \(p_1\) and \(p_2\).
To start, you identify the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) and the alternative hypothesis (\(H_a\)).
  • \(H_0: p_1 = p_2\) indicates no difference between the proportions.
  • \(H_a: p_1 > p_2\) suggests that the first group has a higher proportion, meaning more college graduates get sunburnt.
A proportion test checks if we can statistically support the alternative hypothesis. Here, it can affirm whether education level corresponds to sunburn rates.
Significance Level
The significance level in hypothesis testing determines how confident we are about the test results. It's often denoted by alpha (\(\alpha\)), and it defines the probability threshold for rejecting the null hypothesis. In our scenario, the significance level is set at 0.05, or 5%.Choosing a significance level of 0.05 sets a threshold for deciding: if the test results demonstrate a discrepancy between the groups that has only a 5% probability of being due to random chance, we conclude there is a true difference.
  • A 5% level indicates a willingness to accept a 5% risk of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis.
  • This is often a standard in many research fields to balance between being too lenient or too strict.
Hence, observed data need to be significantly beyond expected results under the null hypothesis to make a case for the alternative hypothesis.
Test Statistic Calculation
Calculating the test statistic is crucial in hypothesis testing, as it measures the extent of the observed difference between group proportions. It involves a few steps:1. **Compute the pooled proportion:** The pooled proportion combines the two sample proportions into a single reference proportion. It is calculated by dividing the total number of individuals with the trait by the total sample size. In our problem, it helps in adjusting the standard error calculation.2. **Determine the standard error:** This reflects how much variation we expect in the proportion differences if the null hypothesis is true. A small standard error suggests the proportions are reliably distinct between samples.3. **Compute the Z-score:** Using the formula \(Z = \frac{{p_1 - p_2}}{{SE}}\), where SE represents the standard error. It signifies the number of standard deviations the observed difference is from the expected difference under the null hypothesis. A higher Z-score points to stronger evidence against \(H_0\).With the calculated Z = 5.0, which significantly surpasses the critical value of 1.645 for a 5% significance level, rejecting the null hypothesis becomes justifiable, confirming a genuine difference in sunburn rates between the education levels.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety issucd a press release titled "Teen Drivers Often lgnoring Bans on Using Cell Phones" (June 9,2008 ). The following quote is from the press release: Just \(1-2\) months prior to the ban's \(\underline{\text { Dec. } 1,2006}\) start, 11 percent of teen drivers were observed using cell phones as they left school in the afternoon. Abour 5 months after the ban took effect, \(12 \%\) of teen drivers were observed using cell phones. Suppose that the two samples of teen drivers (before the ban, after the ban) can be regarded as representative of these populations of teen drivers. Suppose also that 200 teen drivers were observed before the ban (so \(n_{1}=200\) and \(\hat{p}_{1}=.11\) ) and 150 teen drivers were observed after the ban. a. Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the proportion using a cell phone while driving before the ban and the proportion after the ban. b. Is zero included in the confidence interval of Part (c)? What does this imply about the difference in the population proportions?

A hotel chain is interested in evaluating reservation processes. Guests can reserve a room by using either a telephone system or an online system that is accessed through the hotel's web site. Independent random samples of 80 guests who reserved a room by phone and 60 guests who reserved a room online were selected. Of those who reserved by phone, 57 reported that they were satisfied with the reservation process. Of those who reserved online, 50 reported that they were satisfied. Based on these data, is it reasonable to conclude that the proportion who are satisfied is higher for those who reserve a room online? Test the appropriate hypotheses using \(\alpha=.05 .\)

Public Agenda conducted a survey of 1379 parents and 1342 students in grades \(6-12\) regarding the importance of science and mathematics in the school curriculum (Assodated Press, February 15,2006 ). It was reported that \(50 \%\) of students thought that understanding science and having strong math skills are essential for them to succeed in life after school, whereas \(62 \%\) of the parents thought it was crucial for today's students to learn science and higher-level math. The two samples -parents and students-were selected independently of one anorher. Is there sufficient evidence to conclude that the proportion of parents who regard science and mathematics as crucial is different than the corresponding proportion for students in grades \(6-12\) ? 'Test the relevant hypotheses using a significance level of .05.

Are college students who take a freshman orientation course more or less likely to stay in college than those who do not take such a course? The article "A Longitudinal Study of the Retention and Academic Performance of Participants in Freshmen Orientation Courses" (journal of College Student Development [1994]: \(444-\) 449) reported that 50 of 94 randomly selected students who did not participate in an orientation course returned for a second year. Of 94 randomly selected students who did take the orientation course, 56 returned for a second year. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p_{1}-p_{2}\), the difference in the proportion returning for students who do not take an orientation course and those who do. Give an interpretation of this interval.

The positive effect of water fluoridation on dental health is well documented. One study that validates this is described in the article "Impact of Water Fluoridation on Children's Dental Health: A Controlled Study of Two Pennsylvania Communities" (American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section [1981]: 262-265). Two communities were compared. One had adopted fluoridation in 1966 , whereas the other had no such program. Of 143 randomly selected children from the town without fluoridated water, 106 had decayed reeth, and 67 of 119 randomly selected children from the town with fluoridated water had decayed teeth. Let \(p_{1}\) denote proportion of all children in the community with fluoridated water who have decayed teeth, and let \(p_{2}\) denote the analogous proportion for children in the community with unfluoridated water. Estimate \(p_{1}-p_{2}\) using a \(90 \%\) confidence interval. Does the interval contain 0 ? Interpret the interval.

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