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91Ó°ÊÓ

The National Geographic Society conducted a study that included 3000 respondents, age 18 to 24 , in nine dif- ferent countries (San Luis Obispo Tribune, November 21 , 2002). The society found that \(10 \%\) of the participants could not identify their own country on a blank world map. a. Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion who can identify their own country on a blank world map. b. What assumptions are necessary for the confidence interval in Part (a) to be valid? c. To what population would it be reasonable to generalize the confidence interval estimate from Part (a)?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 90% confidence interval for the proportion who can identify their own country on a blank world map is approximately (0.89248, 0.90752). \nb. The assumptions necessary for the confidence interval to be valid include that the sample is a simple random sample, and the sampling distribution is approximately normal. \nc. It would be reasonable to generalize this confidence interval to the population of people aged 18 to 24 in the nine countries where the study took place.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate standard error of the proportion

Calculate the standard error (SE) for the proportion using the formula \(\sqrt{P(1-P)/n}\), where P is the sample proportion and n is the sample size. Here, P is \(0.9\) and n is \(3000\). Thus, \nSE = \(\sqrt{(0.9)(1-0.9)/3000} = 0.00457\).
02

Determine the critical value for a 90% confidence interval

Looking up in a Z-table or using statistical software, find the critical value \(Z*\) for a 90% confidence interval. The critical value for a 90% confidence interval in a standard normal distribution is \(\pm 1.645\).
03

Calculate the margin of error

Multiply the critical value by the standard error to find the margin of error (E). Here, E = \(Z* \times SE = 1.645 \times 0.00457 = 0.00752\).
04

Construct the confidence interval

Subtract and add the margin of error from/to the sample proportion to find the lower and upper bounds of the 90% confidence interval. Thus, the confidence interval is \((0.9 - 0.00752, 0.9 + 0.00752) = (0.89248, 0.90752)\).
05

List the assumptions for the confidence interval

The assumptions needed for the confidence interval to be valid are: 1) The sample is a simple random sample. 2) The sampling distribution of the sample proportion is approximately normal, which is generally satisfied if both \(n \times p\) and \(n \times (1-p)\) are greater than 5. Here, both values are \((3000)(0.9) = 2700\) and \((3000)(1-0.9) = 300\), meaning the assumption is satisfied.
06

Identify the population this confidence interval applies to

The confidence interval applies to the population from which the sample was drawn. In this case, since the study included respondents aged 18 to 24 in nine different countries, it would be reasonable to generalize this confidence interval to the population of people aged 18 to 24 in those nine countries.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is an important concept when constructing confidence intervals. It measures how much the sample statistic (in this case, the sample proportion) is expected to vary from the true population parameter. The smaller the standard error, the more precise our estimate of the population parameter.
To calculate the standard error for a sample proportion, we use the formula: \[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{P(1-P)}{n}} \]Where:
  • \(P\) is the sample proportion (here \(0.9\), representing the \({\text{proportion of people who can identify their own country}}\))
  • \(n\) is the sample size (here \(3000\))
In this study, substituting the values gives us a standard error of \(0.00457\). This suggests that any estimate of the population proportion will very likely be within a narrow range due to the large sample size and high proportion rate, providing more confidence in our findings.
Critical Value
The critical value is used to determine the range of the confidence interval. It represents the number of standard deviations the sample statistic should be from the population parameter in a standard normal distribution to achieve the desired confidence level.
For a 90% confidence interval, the critical value is found using a Z-table or statistical software, where it corresponds to the values that leave 5% in each tail of the normal distribution. Typically, this is noted as \(\pm 1.645\) for a two-tailed confidence interval.
  • A critical value of \(1.645\) means that there's a 90% probability that the true population parameter lies within this number of standard deviations on either side of the sample statistic.
Applying this in our scenario helps to adjust the margin of error, refining our confidence interval to accurately reflect the population proportion.
Margin of Error
The margin of error (ME) quantifies the range of values below and above the sample statistic in a confidence interval. It provides a buffer zone to account for the variability inherent in any sample.
It’s calculated by multiplying the critical value by the standard error:\[ \text{ME} = Z^* \times SE \]
  • With a critical value of \(1.645\) and an SE of \(0.00457\), the margin of error calculates to \(0.00752\).
  • This margin means that while the sample proportion is 90%, the actual population proportion can be between approximately 89.248% and 90.752%.
The smaller the margin of error, the more precise our confidence interval, giving us greater assurance in the results.
Population Assumptions
Before we can rely on a confidence interval, we need to ensure some statistical assumptions are met. These are essential to validate the method's applicability and accuracy.
For this problem, the key assumptions are:
  • Simple Random Sample: Ensures every individual has an equal chance of being selected, minimizing bias in the findings.
  • Normality: Although we deal with proportions, it's important that the distribution of the sample mean tends toward normality. This is often true when \(n \times p\) and \(n \times (1-p)\) are greater than 5, as is the situation here:
    • \((3000)(0.9) = 2700\)
    • \((3000)(0.1) = 300\)
  • Both conditions are comfortably met, ensuring the distribution is nearly normal and supporting the reliability of our confidence interval.
These assumptions confirm that the estimated range is a valid projection of the wider population, while also providing context on how to responsibly extend our findings beyond the sample.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The Gallup Organization conducts an annual survey on crime. It was reported that \(25 \%\) of all households experienced some sort of crime during the past year. This estimate was based on a sample of 1002 randomly selected adults. The report states, "One can say with \(95 \%\) confidence that the margin of sampling error is \(\pm 3\) percentage points." Explain how this statement can be justified.

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