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The article "Should Pregnant Women Move? Linking Risks for Birth Defects with Proximity to Toxic Waste Sites" (Chance [1992]: 40-45) reported that in a large study carried out in the state of New York, approximately \(30 \%\) of the study subjects lived within 1 mi of a hazardous waste site. Let \(\pi\) denote the proportion of all New York residents who live within 1 mi of such a site, and suppose that \(\pi=.3\). a. Would \(p\) based on a random sample of only 10 residents have approximately a normal distribution? Explain why or why not. b. What are the mean value and standard deviation of \(p\) based on a random sample of size \(400 ?\) c. When \(n=400\), what is \(P(.25 \leq p \leq .35)\) ? d. Is the probability calculated in Part (c) larger or smaller than would be the case if \(n=500 ?\) Answer without actually calculating this probability.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. No, it will not follow an approximately normal distribution. b. Mean \(\mu=0.3\) and Standard Deviation would be calculated using the formula. c. The probability \(P(.25 \leq p \leq .35)\) will be the area under the normal curve between the calculated Z-scores. d. The probability is smaller when n=500.

Step by step solution

01

Check for Normal Distribution

The sample proportion \(p\) will follow an approximately normal distribution if both \(n \pi\) and \(n (1-\pi)\) are greater than or equal to 10 where \(\pi\) is the true proportion and \(n\) is the sample size. In this case, \(\pi = 0.3\) and sample size \(n = 10\). Now calculate \(n \pi = 10 * 0.3 = 3\) and \(n (1-\pi) = 10 * (1-0.3) = 7\). Both values are less than 10, so the sample proportion will not approximately follow a normal distribution.
02

Calculate Mean and Standard Deviation

The mean and standard deviation of \(p\) satisfying \(n \pi\) or \(n (1-\pi)\) > 10 are given by, Mean: \(\mu =\pi\) and Standard Deviation: \(\sigma =\sqrt{\frac{\pi * (1 - \pi)}{n}}\). Inputting the given values, mean is \(\mu = 0.3\) and the standard deviation is \(\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{0.3 * (1 - 0.3)}{400}}\).
03

Calculate Probability Range

In order to calculate the probability \(P(.25 \leq p \leq .35)\), we need to standardize \(p\) by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation to compute the Z-scores, correspondingly. Z_score_1 = \((0.25 - \mu) / \sigma\) and Z_score_2 = \((0.35 - \mu) / \sigma\). The required probability is the area under the standard normal curve between these two Z scores.
04

Determine Probability for Different Sample Sizes

If we increase the sample size from 400 to 500, the standard deviation decreases, because the standard deviation of \(p\) is inversely proportional to the square root of the size of the sample (i.e., \(\sigma = \sqrt{\pi * (1 - \pi) / n}\)). As a result, the interval between 0.25 and 0.35 around the mean represents a wider range, therefore, the probability for this range \(P(.25 ≤ p ≤ .35)\) would be smaller when \(n=500\) compared to \(n=400\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
A normal distribution is a common probability distribution characterized by its bell-like shape, also known as the Gaussian distribution. This distribution is symmetrical around the mean, meaning that the data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean. In the context of the given exercise, we are trying to determine if the sample proportion would approximate a normal distribution.
For proportions, a useful rule of thumb to check for normality is whether both \( n\pi \) and \( n(1-\pi) \) are greater than or equal to 10. This condition helps determine if the sample size is sufficiently large for the normal approximation to the binomial distribution to be valid. In this exercise, for \( n = 10 \) and \( \pi = 0.3 \), both calculations fall short of this benchmark (3 and 7, respectively), indicating that the sample proportion \( p \) does not have an approximately normal distribution with a sample size of 10.
Proportion
Proportion in statistics refers to the fraction or percentage of a whole. In this exercise, the proportion \( \pi \) represents the fraction of New York residents living within 1 mile of a hazardous waste site, given as 0.3. Understanding proportions is crucial as they are used to describe the relative magnitude of one part to the total.
When we talk about the sample proportion \( p \), it is a random variable estimated from a population proportion, calculated by [number of successes/total sample size]. In the scenario discussed, this would translate into calculating how many of a sample falls within the specified zone (1 mile of hazardous site), divided by the total sampled residents.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation measures the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. It gives insight into how much the values deviate from the mean. In sampling problems, it serves as a quantitative measure of the uncertainty or variability of a sample proportion.
The standard deviation for a sample proportion is calculated as \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}} \). Here, \( \pi \) is the population proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size. For a sample size of 400, the standard deviation is computed as \( \sigma = \sqrt{\frac{0.3 * 0.7}{400}} \), providing the magnitude of deviation expected when sampling. Lower standard deviation implies the data points are close to the mean, improving reliability of the sample representation.
Sample Size
The sample size \( n \) is the number of observations in a sample. It is crucial in determining the accuracy and reliability of an experiment's estimation. Large sample sizes are favorable as they reduce the impact of random variation.
In statistical analysis, larger sample sizes allow for more precise estimates of population parameters. This precision comes in part because the standard deviation of a sample proportion decreases as \( n \) increases, following the inverse proportionality to the square root of the sample size. This idea underpins Part d of the exercise: when increasing the sample size from 400 to 500, the interval's probability decreases because the standard error (and thus the variability) reduces, making the distribution tighter around the mean.
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. In statistics, probability helps quantify uncertainty. In our exercise, it assists in estimating the likelihood that a particular range of values for a sample proportion will occur under normal distribution assumptions.
The exercise involves calculating the probability that the sample proportion \( p \) falls between 0.25 and 0.35. To do this, we convert the sample proportion limits to Z-scores using the standard deviation and mean, and then consult standard normal distribution tables (or software) to find the probability between these Z-scores. This method illustrates how probability serves as a bridge to understanding spread within a probabilistic event more readily.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that the mean value of interpupillary distance (the distance between the pupils of the left and right eyes) for adult males is \(65 \mathrm{~mm}\) and that the population standard deviation is \(5 \mathrm{~mm}\). a. If the distribution of interpupillary distance is normal and a sample of \(n=25\) adult males is to be selected, what is the probability that the sample average distance \(\bar{x}\) for these 25 will be between 64 and \(67 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? at least \(68 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? b. Suppose that a sample of 100 adult males is to be obtained. Without assuming that interpupillary distance is normally distributed, what is the approximate probability that the sample average distance will be between 64 and \(67 \mathrm{~mm}\) ? at least \(68 \mathrm{~mm}\) ?

Consider the following population: \(\\{2,3,3,4,4\\}\). The value of \(\mu\) is \(3.2\), but suppose that this is not known to an investigator, who therefore wants to estimate \(\mu\) from sample data. Three possible statistics for estimating \(\mu\) are Statistic \(1:\) the sample mean, \(\bar{x}\) Statistic 2 : the sample median Statistic 3 : the average of the largest and the smallest values in the sample A random sample of size 3 will be selected without replacement. Provided that we disregard the order in which the observations are selected, there are 10 possible samples that might result (writing 3 and \(3^{*}, 4\) and \(4^{*}\) to distinguish the two 3 's and the two 4 's in the population): $$\begin{array}{rlllll} 2,3,3^{*} & 2,3,4 & 2,3,4^{*} & 2,3^{*}, 4 & 2,3^{*}, 4^{*} \\ 2,4,4^{*} & 3,3^{*}, 4 & 3,3^{*}, 4^{*} & 3,4,4^{*} & 3^{*}, 4,4^{*} \end{array}$$ For each of these 10 samples, compute Statistics 1,2, and 3\. Construct the sampling distribution of each of these statistics. Which statistic would you recommend for estimating \(\mu\) and why?

Newsweek (November 23, 1992) reported that 40\% of all U.S. employees participate in "self-insurance" health plans \((\pi=.40)\). a. In a random sample of 100 employees, what is the approximate probability that at least half of those in the sample participate in such a plan? b. Suppose you were told that at least 60 of the \(100 \mathrm{em}\) ployees in a sample from your state participated in such a plan. Would you think \(\pi=.40\) for your state? Explain.

For each of the following statements, identify the number that appears in boldface type as the value of either a population characteristic or a statistic: a. A department store reports that \(84 \%\) of all customers who use the store's credit plan pay their bills on time. b. A sample of 100 students at a large university had a mean age of \(24.1\) years. c. The Department of Motor Vehicles reports that \(22 \%\) of all vehicles registered in a particular state are imports. d. A hospital reports that based on the 10 most recent cases, the mean length of stay for surgical patients is \(6.4\) days. e. A consumer group, after testing 100 batteries of a certain brand, reported an average life of \(\mathbf{6 3} \mathrm{hr}\) of use.

The article "Thrillers" (Newsweek, April 22,1985 ) stated, "Surveys tell us that more than half of America's college graduates are avid readers of mystery novels." Let \(\pi\) denote the actual proportion of college graduates who are avid readers of mystery novels. Consider a sample proportion \(p\) that is based on a random sample of 225 college graduates. a. If \(\pi=.5\), what are the mean value and standard deviation of \(p ?\) Answer this question for \(\pi=.6\). Does \(p\) have approximately a normal distribution in both cases? Explain. b. Calculate \(P(p \geq .6)\) for both \(\pi=.5\) and \(\pi=.6\). c. Without doing any calculations, how do you think the probabilities in Part (b) would change if \(n\) were 400 rather than \(225 ?\)

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