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Of all airline flight requests received by a certain discount ticket broker, \(70 \%\) are for domestic travel (D) and \(30 \%\) are for international flights (I). Let \(x\) be the number of requests among the next three requests received that are for domestic flights. Assuming independence of successive requests, determine the probability distribution of x. (Hint: One possible outcome is DID, with the probability \((.7)(.3)(.7)=.147 .\) )

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability distribution of \(x\) (the number of Domestic Flight requests among the next three requests), using a binomial model, gives the probabilities of the four possible outcomes: \(x = 0\), \(x = 1\), \(x = 2\), \(x = 3\).

Step by step solution

01

Analyze the components for binomial distribution

In this problem, the number of trials (n) can be determined as 3. Each trial is independent, and it results in a success with probability \(p = 0.7\) (Domestic flight request) and a failure with probability \(q = 0.3\) (International flight request). The random variable \(x\) is the number of successes (number of Domestic Flight requests received), which can be 0, 1, 2, or 3
02

Formulate the binomial distribution

We can use the binomial distribution formula to find the probability of getting x successes in n trials. The binomial distribution formula is \(P(X = x) = {n \choose x} p^x (1-p)^{n-x}\), where \(P(X = x)\) is the probability that exactly x successes occur in n trials, \(p\) is probability of success in a single trial, \(n\) is the number of trials, and \({n \choose x}\) is the number of combinations of n items taken x at a time.
03

Calculate the probabilities

Here, \(x\) can take values 0, 1, 2, or 3, which means the probability distribution must include these four possible outcomes. Using the formula from step 2, calculate the probability for each outcome. For example, the probability of getting exactly 1 Domestic Flight request (\(x = 1\)) in 3 trials is \(P(X = 1) = {3 \choose 1} (0.7)^1 (1-0.7)^{3-1}\). Do the same calculation for \(x = 0\), \(x = 2\), \(x = 3\) to obtain the full probability distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Distribution
A probability distribution is a mathematical function that provides the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes in an experiment. In the context of the binomial distribution, a probability distribution can describe situations like the number of domestic flight requests in a sequence of flight requests.

This distribution will give you a complete view of what outcomes you can have and how likely each of those outcomes is. In our flight request scenario, where 70% of the requests are for domestic flights, the probability distribution will show us the expected number of domestic requests among three total requests. This will help in understanding and predicting outcomes better. Having a full distribution helps in evaluating all possibilities at once rather than piecemeal.

To construct a probability distribution, you need to consider all possible values of the random variable, in our case, the number of domestic requests out of three, which can be 0, 1, 2, or 3. For each of these, a probability is calculated using the principles of probability theory such as the combination formula and the binomial theorem.
Independent Trials
Independent trials refer to events in which the outcome of one trial does not influence the outcome of another. In probability, this characteristic is crucial for using certain models like the binomial distribution. With the airline requests, each flight request result—whether for a domestic or international flight—does not affect any other request.

For example, if the first request is domestic, it does not increase or decrease the chances of the second request also being domestic. This independence allows us to apply the binomial model since each request is treated as a separate trial with consistent probabilities. The consistent probability here is the 70% chance of a domestic request and 30% for international.

Understanding independent trials is key to setting up and solving problems that involve a series of events, like determining the outcomes of several flight requests in sequence, as it simplifies calculations and allows the use of powerful statistical tools like the binomial theorem.
Discrete Random Variable
A discrete random variable is a type of random variable that has countable outcomes. In our airline example, the random variable is the number of domestic flight requests in three trials, denoted as \(x\). This variable can take finite values: 0, 1, 2, or 3, corresponding to the number of domestic requests received.

Discrete random variables are used to model situations where outcomes can be listed individually and are separate from each other, as opposed to continuous variables that can take any value within a range. With discrete variables, probabilities can be assigned to each possible value.

In practice, with the calculation of the binomial distribution, each possible value of our random variable (number of domestic flights) is associated with a probability, allowing for detailed insights into the likelihood of each event. This makes it an essential tool for discrete dataset analysis and predictions.
Combination Formula
The combination formula is a foundational concept in probability and statistics. It calculates the number of ways to select a subset of items from a larger set, without regard to order. For the binomial distribution, it is used to determine the number of ways \(x\) successes can occur in \(n\) independent trials.

The formula is written as \({n \choose x} = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!}\), where \(n\) is the total number of trials and \(x\) is the number of successful trials (e.g., domestic requests). In our example, this formula helps compute possibilities like getting exactly two domestic requests out of three, which contributes to determining specific probabilities within our distribution.

Using the combination formula is key whenever you break down complex probability calculations into manageable steps. It helps translate larger number problems into understandable results by focusing on different groupings and arrangements that the outcomes may have.

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