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An article in the Los Angeles Times (December 8,1991) reported that there are 40,000 travel agencies nationwide, of which 11,000 are members of the American Society of Travel Agents (booking a tour through an ASTA member increases the likelihood of a refund in the event of cancellation). a. If \(x\) is the number of ASTA members among 5000 randomly selected agencies, could you use the methods of Section \(7.8\) to approximate \(P(1200

Short Answer

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a) Yes, the normal approximation can be used as both np and n(1-p) are greater than 5. b) The mean value is 27.5 and the standard deviation is 4.4295. c) No, the standard deviation does not double but increases by a factor of \(\sqrt{2}\) when the sample size is doubled.

Step by step solution

01

Evaluate The Normal Approximation For Large n

In part a, with a sample size of 5000, \(x\) is the number of ASTA members among the randomly selected. The proportion of ASTA members nationwide is \(p = 11000/40000 = 0.275\). The large sample size makes it possible to use a normal approximation. However, in this scenario both \(np = 5000*0.275 = 1375\) and \(n(1-p) = 5000*0.725 = 3625\) are greater than 5, justifying the application of the normal approximation to the binomial distribution.
02

Calculate Mean and Standard Deviation

In part b, we use the formulas for the mean \(\mu=np\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=\sqrt{np(1-p)}\) of the binomial distribution. With n=100 and p=0.275, we have \(\mu=np=100*0.275=27.5\) ASTA members and \(\sigma = \sqrt{100*0.275*0.725} = 4.4295\). Thus, among 100 agencies, on average 27.5 are ASTA members, with a standard deviation of 4.4295.
03

Understand The Change In Standard Deviation When Sample Size Doubles

In part c, the question asks if the standard deviation will double with the sample size. The formula for standard deviation is \(\sigma = \sqrt{np(1 - p)}\). If n (the sample size) is doubled, the formula becomes \(\sigma = \sqrt{2np(1 - p)} = \sqrt{2} * \sqrt{np(1 - p)}\). Therefore, the standard deviation does not double but increases by a factor of \(\sqrt{2}\). Note that this is assuming that the proportion p stays the same as sample size increases.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Approximation
The normal approximation is a method used to estimate probabilities for a binomial distribution when the sample size is large enough. It allows us to replace the binomial distribution with a normal distribution, which is easier to work with mathematically.

In the given problem, there are 40,000 travel agencies, and we are interested in the number of American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA) members within a sample of 5,000 agencies. The proportion of ASTA members is given by the ratio of ASTA members to total agencies, which is 0.275.
This is a fair number for statistical calculations.

For normal approximation to be valid, both the expected number of successes, given by \(np\), and the expected number of failures, given by \(n(1-p)\), should each be greater than 5.
Here, \(np = 5000 \times 0.275 = 1375\) and \(n(1-p) = 5000 \times 0.725 = 3625\), which satisfy the condition.

Thus, we can use the normal distribution to approximate probabilities, such as the probability of finding between 1,200 and 1,400 ASTA members.
Mean and Standard Deviation
Mean and standard deviation are fundamental concepts in statistics that summarize the central tendency and variability of a data set, respectively. In the context of a binomial distribution, these values can be calculated directly from the sample size and the probability of success.

To find the mean (\(\mu\)) of a binomial distribution with parameters \(n\) (sample size) and \(p\) (probability of success), we use the formula: \(\mu = np\).
For the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)), the formula is \(\sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)}\). In the problem, for a sample size of 100 agencies with a probability \(p = 0.275\), the mean is \(27.5\) ASTA members because \(np = 100 \times 0.275 = 27.5\).

The standard deviation can be computed as \(\sigma = \sqrt{100 \times 0.275 \times 0.725} \approx 4.4295\).
This provides insight into how much variation exists from the mean number of ASTA members in a sample of 100 agencies.
Sample Size Effect
The effect of sample size on standard deviation is crucial in understanding distribution properties. The standard deviation indicates how much individual data points deviate on average from the mean.

According to the standard deviation formula \(\sigma = \sqrt{np(1 - p)}\), the standard deviation depends on both the sample size \(n\) and the success probability \(p\).
When the sample size doubles, the new standard deviation is not simply twice the original value. Instead, it increases by the factor of \(\sqrt{2}\). This happens because \(\sigma_{new} = \sqrt{2np(1 - p)} = \sqrt{2} \cdot \sqrt{np(1 - p)}\).

This shows that while the sample size has a direct impact on standard deviation, the relationship is not linear. Doubling the sample size increases variability, but not to the same degree as the increase in sample size itself. This understanding helps in planning studies and ensuring adequate sample sizes are chosen for desired confidence in results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider babies born in the "normal" range of \(37-\) 43 weeks gestational age. Extensive data support the assumption that for such babies born in the United States, birth wcight is normally distributed with mean \(3432 \mathrm{~g}\) and standard deviation \(482 \mathrm{~g}\) ("Are Babies Normal?" The American Statistician [1999]: \(298-302\) ). a. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? is between 3000 and \(4000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? b. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type is either less than \(2000 \mathrm{~g}\) or greater than \(5000 \mathrm{~g}\) ? c. What is the probability that the birth weight of a randomly selected baby of this type exceeds \(7 \mathrm{lb}\) ? (Hint: \(1 \mathrm{lb}=453.59 \mathrm{~g} .)\) d. How would you characterize the most extreme \(0.1 \%\) of all birth weights? e. If \(x\) is a random variable with a normal distribution and \(a\) is a numerical constant \((a \neq 0)\), then \(y=a x\) also has a normal distribution. Use this formula to determine the distribution of birth weight expressed in pounds (shape, mean, and standard deviation), and then recalculate the probability from Part (c). How does this compare to your previous answer?

The number of vehicles leaving a turnpike at a certain exit during a particular time period has approximately a normal distribution with mean value 500 and standard deviation 75 . What is the probability that the number of cars exiting during this period is a. At least \(650 ?\) b. Strictly between 400 and 550 ? (Strictly means that the values 400 and 550 are not included.) c. Between 400 and 550 (inclusive)?

A new battery's voltage may be acceptable (A) or unacceptable (U). A certain flashlight requires two batteries, so batteries will be independently selected and tested until two acceptable ones have been found. Suppose that \(80 \%\) of all batteries have acceptable voltages, and let \(y\) denote the number of batteries that must be tested. a. What is \(p(2)\), that is, \(P(y=2)\) ? b. What is \(p(3) ?\) (Hint: There are two different outeomes that result in \(y=3 .\) ) c. In order to have \(y=5\), what must be true of the fifth battery selected? List the four outcomes for which \(y=5\), and then determine \(p(5)\). d. Use the pattern in your answers for Parts (a)-(c) to obtain a general formula for \(p(y)\).

The paper "Temperature and the Northern Distributions of Wintering Birds" (Ecology [1991]: 2274-2285) gave the following body masses (in grams) for 50 different bird species: $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrrrr} 7.7 & 10.1 & 21.6 & 8.6 & 12.0 & 11.4 & 16.6 & 9.4 \\ 11.5 & 9.0 & 8.2 & 20.2 & 48.5 & 21.6 & 26.1 & 6.2 \\ 19.1 & 21.0 & 28.1 & 10.6 & 31.6 & 6.7 & 5.0 & 68.8 \\ 23.9 & 19.8 & 20.1 & 6.0 & 99.6 & 19.8 & 16.5 & 9.0 \\ 448.0 & 21.3 & 17.4 & 36.9 & 34.0 & 41.0 & 15.9 & 12.5 \\ 10.2 & 31.0 & 21.5 & 11.9 & 32.5 & 9.8 & 93.9 & 10.9 \\ 19.6 & 14.5 & & & & & & \end{array} $$ a. Construct a stem-and-leaf display in which \(448.0\) is listed separately beside the display as an outlier on the high side, the stem of an observation is the tens digit, the leaf is the ones digit, and the tenths digit is suppressed (e.g., \(21.5\) has stem 2 and leaf 1 ). What do you perceive as the most prominent feature of the display? b. Draw a histogram based on class intervals 5 to \(<10,10\) to \(<15,15\) to \(<20,20\) to \(<25,25\) to \(<30,30\) to \(<40,40\) to \(<50,50\) to \(<100\), and 100 to \(<500\). Is a transformation of the data desirable? Explain. c. Use a calculator or statistical computer package to calculate logarithms of these observations, and construct a histogram. Is the log transformation successful in producing a more symmetric distribution? d. Consider transformed value \(=\frac{1}{\sqrt{\text { original value }}}\) and construct a histogram of the transformed data. Does it appear to resemble a normal curve?

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