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An automobile manufacturer is considering using robots for part of its assembly process. Converting to robots is an expensive process, so it will be undertaken only if there is strong evidence that the proportion of defective installations is lower for the robots than for human assemblers. Let \(\pi\) denote the true proportion of defective installations for the robots. It is known that human assemblers have a defect proportion of 02 . a. Which of the following pairs of hypotheses should the manufacturer test: $$ H_{0}: \pi=.02 \text { versus } H_{s}: \pi<.02 $$ or $$ H_{0}: \pi=.02 \text { versus } H_{a}: \pi>.02 $$ Explain your answer. b. In the context of this exercise, describe Type I and Type II errors. c. Would you prefer a test with \(\alpha=.01\) or \(\alpha=.1 ?\) Explain your reasoning.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The correct pair of hypotheses to test is \(H_0: \pi = 0.02\) versus \(H_a: \pi < 0.02\). A Type I error would involve wrongly concluding that robots have a lower defect rate, while a Type II error would involve wrongly failing to conclude this. Given the high cost of transitioning to robots, a lower significance level of \(\alpha = 0.01\) is more preferable to minimize the risk of costly mistakes.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The manufacturer aims to find strong evidence that the robots have a lower defect rate than humans. Therefore, the null hypothesis \(H_0\) should state that the defect rate for the robots is not lower, i.e., \(H_0: \pi = 0.02\). The alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) should then state that the defect rate for the robots is indeed lower, i.e., \(H_a: \pi < 0.02\). Hence, the right pair of hypotheses to test is \(H_0: \pi = 0.02\) versus \(H_a: \pi < 0.02\).
02

Describe Type I and Type II Errors

A Type I error is when we reject the null hypothesis when it is actually true. In this context, it would mean deciding that the robots have a lower defect rate than humans, when in reality, they do not. A Type II error is when we fail to reject the null hypothesis when it is false. In this context, it would mean deciding that the robots do not have a lower defect rate than humans, when in reality, they do.
03

Choose Between Two Significance Levels

The significance level \(\alpha\) is the probability of making a Type I error. A lower \(\alpha\) reduces the chance of a Type I error, i.e., claiming the robots to be better when they're not. Since the transition to robots is expensive, it would be more sensible to choose \(\alpha = 0.01\) to minimize the risk of this costly mistake.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Understanding the null and alternative hypotheses is crucial in any hypothesis testing scenario in statistics. In essence, the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is a statement of no effect or no difference, serving as the default assumption. It is not necessarily a statement of equality but is the hypothesis under test. In the context provided, the null hypothesis is that the proportion of defective installations by robots (\( \pi \) ) equals 0.02, the same as human assemblers.

The alternative hypothesis (\(H_a\text{ or }H_1\text{, depending on notational preferences}\) ), on the other hand, is a statement that indicates the presence of an effect or difference. It’s what you would conclude if you find sufficient evidence against the null hypothesis. In the given scenario, the alternative hypothesis says that the defect rate for robots is less than 0.02, which would justify the shift towards using robotic assemblers. Formulating the correct null and alternative hypotheses is vital as it guides the direction of the statistical test.
Type I and Type II Errors
When conducting hypothesis testing, there are potential errors that researchers should consider, aptly named Type I and Type II errors. A Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is wrongly rejected. It is akin to a false positive, saying there's an effect or difference when there isn't. In our automotive example, a Type I error would lead to the incorrect conclusion that robots have a lower defect rate, possibly resulting in unnecessary expenses.

A Type II error is the opposite; it happens when the null hypothesis is mistakenly accepted. This error corresponds to a false negative, missing the presence of an actual effect or difference. In the context of the exercise, this would mean sticking with human assemblers while robots might actually be more efficient, causing a loss of potential quality and productivity. Balancing these errors is key; often, minimizing one increases the other.
Significance Level
The significance level, commonly denoted as \(\alpha\), plays a vital role in hypothesis testing as it defines the threshold probability for making a Type I error. It's selected before examining the data and typically set at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10, depending on how rigorous the test needs to be. A lower \(\alpha\) level means you are less willing to accept a Type I error.

In the exercise, the question poses whether to select \(\alpha=.01\) or \(\alpha=.1\). Opting for \(\alpha=.01\) entails a more stringent test, which means you'd require stronger evidence to reject the null hypothesis. This minimizes the risk of a costly mistake by asserting that robotic assemblers are superior only when you're very confident. Choosing a lower significance level is particularly appropriate when the cost of a Type I error is high, as is the case when making large investments in new technologies.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A television manufacturer claims that (at least) \(90 \%\) of its TV sets will need no service during the first 3 years of operation. A consumer agency wishes to check this claim, so it obtains a random sample of \(n=100\) purchasers and asks each whether the set purchased needed repair during the first 3 years after purchase. Let \(p\) be the sample proportion of responses indicating no repair (so that no repair is identified with a success). Let \(\pi\) denote the true proportion of successes for all sets made by this manufacturer. The agency does not want to claim false advertising unless sample evidence strongly suggests that \(\pi<.9 .\) The appropriate hypotheses are then \(H_{0}: \pi=.9\) versus \(H_{a}: \pi<.9\). a. In the context of this problem, describe Type \(I\) and Type II errors, and discuss the possible consequences of each. b. Would you recommend a test procedure that uses \(\alpha=.10\) or one that uses \(\alpha=.01 ?\) Explain.

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The article "Credit Cards and College Students: Who Pays, Who Benefits?" (Journal of College Student Development \([1998]: 50-56\) ) described a study of credit card payment practices of college students. According to the authors of the article, the credit card industry asserts that at most \(50 \%\) of college students carry a credit card balance from month to month. However, the authors of the article report that, in a random sample of 310 college students, 217 carried a balance each month. Does this sample provide sufficient evidence to reject the industry claim?

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