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Using the sample information given in Exercises \(22-23,\) give the best point estimate for the binomial proportion \(p\) and calculate the margin of error. A random sample of \(n=500\) observations from a binomial population produced \(x=450\) successes.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The best point estimate for the binomial proportion p is 0.9, and the margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is 0.0263.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the point estimate for the binomial proportion p

Divide the number of successes (x) by the total number of observations (n): $$ p = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{450}{500} = 0.9 $$
02

Calculate the standard error (SE) for the binomial proportion

Use the formula for the standard error of a proportion: $$ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.9(1-0.9)}{500}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.9(0.1)}{500}} = 0.0134 $$
03

Calculate the margin of error (ME) for the 95% confidence interval

Use the formula for a 95% confidence interval for a proportion: $$ ME = 1.96 * SE = 1.96 * 0.0134 = 0.0263 $$
04

Final Results:

The best point estimate for the binomial proportion p is 0.9, and the margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is 0.0263.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
When working with statistical data, a point estimate is a single value that serves as an approximation of an unknown population parameter. In the context of proportions, this estimate provides a snapshot of the population's characteristic based on sample data. For instance, the solution provided calculates the point estimate for the binomial proportion p by dividing the number of successes (x) by the total number of observations (n).

In the given exercise, with 450 successes out of 500 observations, the point estimate is calculated as follows:
\[ p = \frac{x}{n} = \frac{450}{500} = 0.9 \].
This tells us that, based on our sample, 90% of the population is estimated to have the characteristic we’re interested in. It's crucial to remember this is not the true population proportion, but our best estimate from the sample.
Margin of Error
The margin of error (ME) quantifies the uncertainty in a point estimate. It tells you how much you can expect the estimate to vary if you were to take multiple samples. A smaller margin of error suggests a more precise estimate. The typical way to calculate ME is by multiplying the standard error by a z-score (which reflects the desired confidence level).

Based on the formula for a 95% confidence interval, the margin of error calculation in the exercise is:
\[ ME = 1.96 \times SE = 1.96 \times 0.0134 = 0.0263 \].
This number represents the radius of the confidence interval and denotes that the true proportion will likely fall within 2.63% of the point estimate, given a 95% confidence level.
Confidence Interval
The confidence interval (CI) gives a range of values within which the true population parameter is likely to lie, with a specified level of confidence (commonly 95%). The point estimate is at the center of this range, and the margin of error defines its width. For a binomial proportion, the confidence interval helps understand the variability of the estimate.

If you have a point estimate of 0.9, and a margin of error of 0.0263, the 95% confidence interval is calculated by subtracting and adding the margin of error from the point estimate:
\[ CI = (p - ME, p + ME) = (0.9 - 0.0263, 0.9 + 0.0263) = (0.8737, 0.9263) \].
This interval tells us that we can be 95% confident that the true proportion is between 87.37% and 92.63%.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) measures the variation of sample estimates from the true population parameter. In simpler terms, it's an indication of the reliability of your point estimate. A smaller standard error means the sample estimate is likely closer to the true population parameter. For a proportion, the standard error depends on the sample size and the estimated proportion.

The formula used in the example to calculate standard error is for a proportion:
\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.9(0.1)}{500}} = 0.0134 \].
Here, 0.0134 is the standard error, and it is used to ascertain the margin of error for deriving the confidence interval, showcasing its direct impact on the precision of the conclusions drawn from the sample data.

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